NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Quentin Johnston WR

LAC vs LAR · Sun Nov 1 · 4:05 PM ET

39.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · Last 20 60%12/20 Odds imply —

Season avg: 33.0
Graph avg: 46.0
Graph median: 41.00–104
Over the close: 42%8/19

2026 per game

Targets4.4▼-2.0

Rec1.6▼-2.3

Rec Yds33.0▼-20.9

Rec TD0.0▼-0.6

Snaps53.4▲+1.2

Snap %80.6%▲+2.0

39.5

2024

0

Jan 11
2025

79

Sep 05
71

Sep 15
89

Sep 21
98

Sep 28
40

Oct 05
30

Oct 19
53

Nov 02
42

Nov 09
0

Nov 16
23

Nov 30
8

Dec 08
104

Dec 21
98

Dec 27
20

Jan 11
2026

17

Sep 13
7

Sep 20
40

Sep 27
44

Oct 04
57

Oct 18
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 39.5

Home 41% 7/17 · avg 36.2
Away 72% 13/18 · avg 56.4
vs LAR No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 29.5 65% 13/20
O 34.5 60% 12/20
O 39.5 Today 60% 12/20
O 44.5 40% 8/20
O 49.5 40% 8/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds135.1#22
Receptions10.1#26
Targets18.3#18
Yds/Target7.4#22
Rec TD1.3#3

WRs vs LAR · 2026

Each main WR who faced LAR this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-12.7

Avg diff %-18%

Beat their average36% (5/14)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Tre Tucker	103	61.8	+67%
Oct 25	Cody White	4	18.0	-78%
Oct 18	Michael Wilson	32	57.2	-44%
Oct 18	Kendrick Bourne	47	37.4	+26%
Oct 12	Keon Coleman	7	55.2	-87%
Oct 12	Khalil Shakir	80	42.0	+90%
Oct 04	Dontayvion Wicks	18	53.2	-66%
Oct 04	Makai Lemon	27	27.8	-3%
Sep 27	Jaylen Waddle	10	44.3	-77%
Sep 27	Pat Bryant	44	29.7	+48%
Sep 21	Malik Nabers	1	100.7	-99%
Sep 21	Malachi Fields	30	36.3	-17%
Sep 10	Mike Evans	49	74.2	-34%
Sep 10	Deebo Samuel Sr.	48	39.5	+22%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAC offense

LAC offense: Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%14.4 yds	1%14.2 yds	8%7.0 yds
Short	26%5.9 yds	18%6.5 yds	39%4.3 yds

Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%8.4 yds#25	6%13.4 yds#20	8%5.0 yds#31
Short	34%5.7 yds#14	16%5.7 yds#29	33%6.4 yds#5

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	23%18.7 yds	0%	13%7.3 yds
Short	32%5.7 yds	13%5.3 yds	19%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LAC targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR	1	9.0	9	25.0%
2	Tre Harris WR	5	5.0	25	18.0%
3	David Njoku TE	2	4.0	8	15.0%
4	Quentin Johnston WR	5	4.4	22	14.9%
5	Ladd McConkey WR	5	3.6	18	12.4%
6	Charlie Kolar TE	4	3.2	13	11.8%
7	Brenen Thompson WR	1	3.0	3	11.5%
8	Oronde Gadsden II TE	6	3.5	21	11.4%
9	Keaton Mitchell RB	6	2.5	15	9.0%
10	Kimani Vidal RB	5	2.4	12	7.9%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 39.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-18	6	@ KC	57	Over	35.5	56 (82%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SEA	44	Over	34.5	53 (75%)
2026-09-27	3	@ BUF	40	Over	35.5	60 (87%)
2026-09-20	2	vs LV	7	Under	46.5	55 (81%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ARI	17	Under	43.5	43 (78%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ NE	20	Under	11.5	46 (77%)
2025-12-27	17	vs HOU	98	Over	105.5	47 (75%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DAL	104	Over	104.5	37 (58%)
2025-12-08	14	vs PHI	8	Under	8.5	56 (76%)
2025-11-30	13	vs LV	23	Under	13.5	45 (67%)
2025-11-16	11	@ JAX	0	Under	40.5	43 (90%)
2025-11-09	10	vs PIT	42	Over	44.5	60 (82%)
2025-11-02	9	@ TEN	53	Over	53.5	44 (68%)
2025-10-19	7	vs IND	30	Under	7.5	68 (89%)
2025-10-05	5	vs WAS	40	Over	40.5	55 (82%)
2025-09-28	4	@ NYG	98	Over	76.5	58 (92%)
2025-09-21	3	vs DEN	89	Over	89.5	75 (87%)
2025-09-15	2	@ LV	71	Over	75.5	44 (76%)
2025-09-05	1	vs KC	79	Over	26.5	53 (82%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	@ HOU	0	Under	—	47 (84%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 33.5Underdog 39.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: Underdog, updated 9m ago.