NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Bucky Irving RB

TB vs ATL · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

70.5 Rush Yds O -114U -110

Hit rate · Last 20 45%9/20 Odds imply 50.4% Over

Season avg: 79.7
Graph avg: 71.2
Graph median: 64.519–165
Over the close: 41%7/17

2026 per game

Carries17.1▼-0.2

Rush Yds79.7▲+20.9

Rush TD0.6▲+0.5

Targets3.3▼-0.2

Rec2.6▼-0.4

Rec Yds11.1▼-16.6

Snaps42.6▲+0.5

Snap %64.0%▲+2.4

70.5

2024

113

Dec 29
89

Jan 05
77

Jan 12
2025

37

Sep 07
71

Sep 15
66

Sep 21
63

Sep 28
61

Nov 30
55

Dec 07
60

Dec 11
71

Dec 21
19

Dec 28
85

Jan 03
2026

45

Sep 13
89

Sep 20
46

Sep 27
61

Oct 04
165

Oct 08
46

Oct 18
106

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 70.5

Home 30% 6/20 · avg 61.8
Away 53% 8/15 · avg 74.0
vs ATL 0% 0/4 · avg 46.2

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 50.5 75% 15/20
O 60.5 65% 13/20
O 70.5 Today 45% 9/20
O 80.5 30% 6/20
O 90.5 15% 3/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs ATL

What ATL allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds88.8#20
Yds/Carry4.4#13
Rush TD0.7#13
Targets7.1#3
Rec Yds35.3#8

RBs vs ATL · 2026

Each main RB who faced ATL this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-19.6

Avg diff %-42%

Beat their average14% (1/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Christian McCaffrey	39	58.3	-33%
Oct 18	D'Andre Swift	44	72.0	-39%
Oct 11	Derrick Henry	102	79.5	+28%
Oct 05	Kendre Miller	9	30.0	-70%
Sep 24	Chris Brooks	0	23.3	-100%
Sep 20	Chuba Hubbard	53	81.2	-35%
Sep 13	Jaylen Warren	46	85.8	-46%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TB offense

TB offense: Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.9 yds	4%13.4 yds	6%8.5 yds
Short	34%5.1 yds	14%7.2 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ATL defense

ATL defense: Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.6 yds#27	3%19.0 yds#4	8%9.4 yds#22
Short	32%6.4 yds#8	14%6.6 yds#22	33%5.3 yds#19

Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	49%4.8 yds	8%4.3 yds	43%2.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TB targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Emeka Egbuka WR	6	8.2	49	25.6%
2	Chris Godwin Jr. WR	7	4.9	34	19.9%
3	Cade Otton TE	7	4.3	30	15.3%
4	Ted Hurst III WR	6	3.8	23	12.7%
5	Bucky Irving RB	7	3.3	23	12.4%
6	Tez Johnson WR	7	2.1	15	8.4%
7	Kenny Gainwell RB	7	2.4	17	8.0%
8	Payne Durham TE	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Jalen McMillan WR	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Kameron Johnson WR	7	0.3	2	1.1%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 70.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ CAR	106	Over	66.5	37 (59%)
2026-10-18	6	vs PIT	46	Under	64.5	63 (85%)
2026-10-08	5	@ DAL	165	Over	52.5	39 (54%)
2026-10-04	4	vs GB	61	Under	55.5	37 (59%)
2026-09-27	3	vs MIN	46	Under	57.5	36 (52%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CLE	89	Over	65.5	51 (78%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CIN	45	Under	60.5	35 (61%)
2026-01-03	18	vs CAR	85	Over	81.5	42 (63%)
2025-12-28	17	@ MIA	19	Under	20.5	36 (54%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CAR	71	Over	80.5	40 (62%)
2025-12-11	15	vs ATL	60	Under	70.5	37 (54%)
2025-12-07	14	vs NO	55	Under	71.5	36 (49%)
2025-11-30	13	vs ARI	61	Under	41.5	32 (52%)
2025-09-28	4	vs PHI	63	Under	60.5	44 (61%)
2025-09-21	3	vs NYJ	66	Under	70.5	53 (74%)
2025-09-15	2	@ HOU	71	Over	80.5	57 (71%)
2025-09-07	1	@ ATL	37	Under	71.5	44 (76%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	vs WAS	77	Over	—	33 (69%)
2025-01-05	18	vs NO	89	Over	—	48 (72%)
2024-12-29	17	vs CAR	113	Over	—	42 (55%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 67.5Underdog 69.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 6m ago.