NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Colston Loveland TE

CHI vs SEA · Mon Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ET

44.5 Rec Yds O -111U -118

Hit rate · Last 20 55%11/20 Odds imply 49.3% Over

Season avg: 34.9
Graph avg: 53.6
Graph median: 52.00–137
Over the close: 58%11/19

2026 per game

Targets6.0▲+0.1

Rec3.7▼-0.2

Rec Yds34.9▼-15.5

Rec TD0.3-0.0

Snaps64.7▲+19.3

Snap %85.1%▲+19.7

44.5

2025

38

Oct 26
118

Nov 02
55

Nov 09
40

Nov 16
49

Nov 23
28

Nov 28
29

Dec 07
63

Dec 14
30

Dec 20
94

Dec 28
91

Jan 04
137

Jan 10
56

Jan 18
2026

0

Sep 13
3

Sep 20
31

Sep 28
57

Oct 04
19

Oct 11
65

Oct 18
69

Oct 22
?

Nov 03

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 44.5

Home 57% 8/14 · avg 50.6
Away 27% 3/11 · avg 40.2
vs SEA No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 34.5 65% 13/20
O 39.5 60% 12/20
O 44.5 Today 55% 11/20
O 49.5 50% 10/20
O 54.5 50% 10/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs SEA

What SEA allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds41.6#26
Receptions4.8#21
Targets6.8#22
Yds/Target6.1#26
Rec TD0.2#28

TEs vs SEA · 2026

Each main TE who faced SEA this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-12.9

Avg diff %+1%

Beat their average29% (2/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Travis Kelce	44	59.8	-26%
Oct 15	Evan Engram	13	20.5	-37%
Oct 11	George Kittle	24	66.8	-64%
Oct 04	Oronde Gadsden II	36	13.4	+169%
Sep 27	John Bates	9	6.0	+50%
Sep 20	Trey McBride	41	71.8	-43%
Sep 09	Hunter Henry	26	45.0	-42%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CHI offense

CHI offense: Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%14.0 yds	5%12.5 yds	9%6.8 yds
Short	22%5.8 yds	22%7.4 yds	36%6.1 yds

Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

SEA defense

SEA defense: Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.8 yds#26	2%16.8 yds#10	10%9.2 yds#23
Short	30%5.5 yds#19	17%5.2 yds#31	32%4.6 yds#32

Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%18.8 yds	9%5.7 yds	6%4.6 yds
Short	20%5.5 yds	28%7.0 yds	31%5.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CHI targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Luther Burden III WR	7	6.7	47	21.0%
2	Colston Loveland TE	7	6.0	42	18.9%
3	Rome Odunze WR	7	5.4	38	16.6%
4	Kalif Raymond WR	7	4.4	31	14.4%
5	D'Andre Swift RB	7	3.6	25	11.0%
6	Cole Kmet TE	7	2.0	14	6.5%
7	Roschon Johnson RB	5	2.0	10	5.4%
8	Kyle Monangai RB	4	1.2	5	4.4%
9	Sam Roush TE	5	1.0	5	3.2%
10	Zavion Thomas WR	6	0.8	5	2.4%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 44.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-22	7	vs NE	69	Over	44.5	58 (84%)
2026-10-18	6	@ ATL	65	Over	38.5	68 (88%)
2026-10-11	5	@ GB	19	Under	39.5	55 (80%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NYJ	57	Over	33.5	86 (92%)
2026-09-28	3	vs PHI	31	Under	33.5	57 (79%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIN	3	Under	50.5	64 (86%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CAR	0	Under	55.5	65 (87%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs LA	56	Over	56.5	53 (65%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs GB	137	Over	95.5	63 (81%)
2026-01-04	18	vs DET	91	Over	44.5	50 (91%)
2025-12-28	17	@ SF	94	Over	79.5	54 (82%)
2025-12-20	16	vs GB	30	Under	30.5	53 (83%)
2025-12-14	15	vs CLE	63	Over	29.5	43 (65%)
2025-12-07	14	@ GB	29	Under	—	41 (59%)
2025-11-28	13	@ PHI	28	Under	28.5	51 (59%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PIT	49	Over	49.5	42 (65%)
2025-11-16	11	@ MIN	40	Under	20.5	56 (75%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NYG	55	Over	25.5	42 (62%)
2025-11-02	9	@ CIN	118	Over	60.5	65 (81%)
2025-10-26	8	@ BAL	38	Under	34.5	51 (81%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 39.5PrizePicks 42.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: BetMGM, updated 8m ago.