NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Jeremy McNichols RB

WAS vs PHI · Sun Nov 1 · 8:20 PM ET

25.5 Rush Yds O -120U -110

Hit rate · All 17%6/35 Odds imply 51.0% Over

Season avg: 13.0
Graph avg: 14.4
Graph median: 6.0-2–78
Over the close: 38%3/8

2026 per game

Carries5.0▲+2.2

Rush Yds13.0▼-0.8

Rush TD0.0▼-0.1

Targets0.0▼-1.9

Rec0.0▼-1.6

Rec Yds0.0▼-12.2

Snaps12.0▼-8.1

Snap %18.0%▼-14.5

25.5

2024

0

Sep 08
1

Sep 23
68

Sep 29
44

Oct 06
9

Oct 13
42

Oct 20
-1

Oct 27
20

Nov 03
7

Nov 10
5

Nov 14
22

Nov 24
32

Dec 01
4

Dec 15
3

Dec 22
5

Dec 29
1

Jan 12
8

Jan 18
0

Jan 26
2025

25

Sep 07
78

Sep 21
3

Sep 28
6

Oct 05
5

Oct 13
22

Oct 19
4

Oct 27
0

Nov 02
25

Nov 09
13

Nov 16
30

Nov 30
0

Dec 07
6

Dec 14
3

Dec 20
-2

Dec 25
3

Jan 04
2026

13

Oct 19
?

Nov 02

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 25.5

Home 31% 5/16 · avg 19.9
Away 5% 1/19 · avg 9.8
vs PHI 0% 0/5 · avg 2.8

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 15.5 31% 11/35
O 20.5 29% 10/35
O 25.5 Today 17% 6/35
O 30.5 14% 5/35
O 35.5 11% 4/35

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs PHI

What PHI allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds105.5#9
Yds/Carry4.0#20
Rush TD0.6#17
Targets5.5#16
Rec Yds32.6#15

RBs vs PHI · 2026

Each main RB who faced PHI this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+17.4

Avg diff %+38%

Beat their average71% (5/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 26	Javonte Williams	155	52.8	+193%
Oct 18	Chuba Hubbard	120	67.8	+77%
Oct 11	Bhayshul Tuten	72	63.2	+14%
Oct 04	Kyren Williams	80	68.7	+17%
Sep 28	Kyle Monangai	31	97.7	-68%
Sep 20	Tony Pollard	64	69.0	-7%
Sep 13	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	63	44.0	+43%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

WAS offense

WAS offense: Share of WAS pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%11.8 yds	4%16.3 yds	11%5.7 yds
Short	27%6.0 yds	15%6.5 yds	35%5.9 yds

Share of WAS pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PHI defense

PHI defense: Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%8.6 yds#22	4%17.6 yds#8	9%13.4 yds#8
Short	32%6.1 yds#10	19%7.1 yds#18	32%5.4 yds#16

Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	35%8.0 yds	9%6.5 yds	56%5.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of WAS targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Stefon Diggs WR	5	7.6	38	23.4%
2	Terry McLaurin WR	5	5.4	27	18.1%
3	Chig Okonkwo TE	4	5.0	20	16.9%
4	Antonio Williams WR	6	4.3	26	13.8%
5	Treylon Burks WR	5	3.4	17	11.4%
6	Rachaad White RB	5	3.0	15	9.3%
7	Dyami Brown WR	6	2.7	16	8.4%
8	John Bates TE	4	1.5	6	5.2%
9	Austin Ekeler RB	3	1.7	5	5.2%
10	Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB	5	1.4	7	4.2%

Game log · 35 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 25.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-19	6	@ SF	13	Under	—	12 (18%)
2026-01-04	18	@ PHI	3	Under	—	15 (22%)
2025-12-25	17	vs DAL	-2	Under	5.5	18 (41%)
2025-12-20	16	vs PHI	3	Under	5.5	15 (28%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NYG	6	Under	30.5	30 (49%)
2025-12-07	14	@ MIN	0	Under	1.5	18 (35%)
2025-11-30	13	vs DEN	30	Over	7.5	44 (49%)
2025-11-16	11	@ MIA	13	Under	—	17 (25%)
2025-11-09	10	vs DET	25	Under	—	17 (31%)
2025-11-02	9	vs SEA	0	Under	—	17 (26%)
2025-10-27	8	@ KC	4	Under	—	23 (43%)
2025-10-19	7	@ DAL	22	Under	—	24 (36%)
2025-10-13	6	vs CHI	5	Under	5.5	21 (32%)
2025-10-05	5	@ LAC	6	Under	—	15 (25%)
2025-09-28	4	@ ATL	3	Under	—	19 (33%)
2025-09-21	3	vs LV	78	Over	10.5	15 (26%)
2025-09-07	1	vs NYG	25	Under	6.5	13 (19%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	@ PHI	0	Under	—	1 (1%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	@ DET	8	Under	—	13 (17%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	@ TB	1	Under	—	10 (14%)
2024-12-29	17	vs ATL	5	Under	—	22 (27%)
2024-12-22	16	vs PHI	3	Under	—	19 (28%)
2024-12-15	15	@ NO	4	Under	—	22 (28%)
2024-12-01	13	vs TEN	32	Over	—	21 (25%)
2024-11-24	12	vs DAL	22	Under	—	17 (24%)
2024-11-14	11	@ PHI	5	Under	—	11 (17%)
2024-11-10	10	vs PIT	7	Under	—	19 (30%)
2024-11-03	9	@ NYG	20	Under	—	24 (39%)
2024-10-27	8	vs CHI	-1	Under	—	5 (7%)
2024-10-20	7	vs CAR	42	Over	—	17 (25%)
2024-10-13	6	@ BAL	9	Under	—	22 (37%)
2024-10-06	5	vs CLE	44	Over	—	15 (22%)
2024-09-29	4	@ ARI	68	Over	—	27 (38%)
2024-09-23	3	@ CIN	1	Under	—	8 (14%)
2024-09-08	1	@ TB	0	Under	—	—

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 26.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: BetMGM, updated 8m ago.