NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

CeeDee Lamb WR

DAL vs ARI · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

80.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 51%18/35 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 93.0
Graph avg: 83.5
Graph median: 85.04–189
Over the close: 42%8/19

2026 per game

Targets11.6▲+2.6

Rec7.6▲+1.8

Rec Yds93.0▲+10.2

Rec TD0.9▲+0.6

Snaps53.4▼-2.3

Snap %78.6%▲+0.8

80.5

2024

61

Sep 08
90

Sep 15
67

Sep 22
98

Sep 26
62

Oct 06
89

Oct 13
146

Oct 27
47

Nov 03
21

Nov 10
93

Nov 18
67

Nov 24
39

Nov 28
93

Dec 09
116

Dec 15
105

Dec 22
2025

110

Sep 04
112

Sep 14
110

Oct 19
74

Oct 26
85

Nov 03
66

Nov 17
75

Nov 23
112

Nov 27
121

Dec 04
111

Dec 14
51

Dec 21
46

Dec 25
4

Jan 04
2026

44

Sep 13
153

Sep 20
112

Sep 27
189

Oct 04
9

Oct 08
70

Oct 18
74

Oct 26
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 80.5

Home 67% 12/18 · avg 84.8
Away 35% 6/17 · avg 82.1
vs ARI 100% 1/1 · avg 85.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 60.5 77% 27/35
O 70.5 60% 21/35
O 80.5 Today 51% 18/35
O 90.5 43% 15/35
O 100.5 34% 12/35

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds138.5#18
Receptions9.9#27
Targets15.9#29
Yds/Target8.7#9
Rec TD1.3#2

WRs vs ARI · 2026

Each main WR who faced ARI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-5.2

Avg diff %+0%

Beat their average43% (6/14)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Jaylen Waddle	48	38.0	+26%
Oct 25	Courtland Sutton	45	20.5	+120%
Oct 18	Puka Nacua	80	101.2	-21%
Oct 18	Davante Adams	39	88.2	-56%
Oct 11	Amon-Ra St. Brown	69	91.2	-24%
Oct 11	Jameson Williams	47	64.0	-27%
Oct 04	Malik Nabers	112	82.2	+36%
Oct 04	Malachi Fields	52	32.7	+59%
Sep 27	Mike Evans	34	77.2	-56%
Sep 27	Jordan Watkins	60	39.0	+54%
Sep 20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	155	118.7	+31%
Sep 20	Cooper Kupp	20	29.8	-33%
Sep 13	Tre Harris	20	51.2	-61%
Sep 13	Quentin Johnston	17	37.0	-54%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DAL offense

DAL offense: Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.6 yds	4%23.2 yds	6%10.5 yds
Short	32%6.6 yds	14%5.1 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.4 yds#17	3%13.8 yds#18	11%11.2 yds#13
Short	30%6.9 yds#3	18%7.8 yds#13	30%6.9 yds#3

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%10.3 yds	5%7.8 yds	10%15.1 yds
Short	30%6.4 yds	11%5.4 yds	32%6.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DAL targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	CeeDee Lamb WR	7	11.6	81	30.8%
2	George Pickens WR	7	8.3	58	22.1%
3	Ryan Flournoy WR	7	5.7	40	15.1%
4	Jake Ferguson TE	7	3.6	25	9.3%
5	Javonte Williams RB	7	3.1	22	8.5%
6	Brevyn Spann-Ford TE	7	1.9	13	4.7%
7	Jonathan Mingo WR	5	1.6	8	4.3%
8	KaVontae Turpin WR	6	1.2	7	3.0%
9	Luke Schoonmaker TE	3	1.0	3	2.7%
10	Tyler Goodson RB	4	1.2	5	2.6%

Game log · 35 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 80.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-26	7	@ PHI	74	Under	79.5	55 (81%)
2026-10-18	6	@ GB	70	Under	84.5	69 (88%)
2026-10-08	5	vs TB	9	Under	84.5	34 (57%)
2026-10-04	4	@ HOU	189	Over	76.5	67 (86%)
2026-09-27	3	vs BAL	112	Over	82.5	61 (82%)
2026-09-20	2	vs WAS	153	Over	75.5	41 (75%)
2026-09-13	1	@ NYG	44	Under	75.5	47 (81%)
2026-01-04	18	@ NYG	4	Under	38.5	25 (45%)
2025-12-25	17	@ WAS	46	Under	46.5	80 (87%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LAC	51	Under	55.5	50 (86%)
2025-12-14	15	vs MIN	111	Over	100.5	60 (86%)
2025-12-04	14	@ DET	121	Over	165.5	38 (46%)
2025-11-27	13	vs KC	112	Over	66.5	58 (81%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PHI	75	Under	85.5	63 (85%)
2025-11-17	11	@ LV	66	Under	65.5	49 (73%)
2025-11-03	9	vs ARI	85	Over	—	59 (88%)
2025-10-26	8	@ DEN	74	Under	85.5	53 (72%)
2025-10-19	7	vs WAS	110	Over	110.5	52 (78%)
2025-09-14	2	vs NYG	112	Over	76.5	82 (92%)
2025-09-04	1	@ PHI	110	Over	72.5	56 (92%)
2024-12-22	16	vs TB	105	Over	—	33 (55%)
2024-12-15	15	@ CAR	116	Over	—	51 (70%)
2024-12-09	14	vs CIN	93	Over	—	58 (97%)
2024-11-28	13	vs NYG	39	Under	—	51 (67%)
2024-11-24	12	@ WAS	67	Under	—	62 (94%)
2024-11-18	11	vs HOU	93	Over	—	66 (80%)
2024-11-10	10	vs PHI	21	Under	—	50 (83%)
2024-11-03	9	@ ATL	47	Under	—	64 (83%)
2024-10-27	8	@ SF	146	Over	—	55 (89%)
2024-10-13	6	vs DET	89	Over	—	49 (71%)
2024-10-06	5	@ PIT	62	Under	—	66 (87%)
2024-09-26	4	@ NYG	98	Over	—	47 (84%)
2024-09-22	3	vs BAL	67	Under	—	71 (89%)
2024-09-15	2	vs NO	90	Over	—	58 (83%)
2024-09-08	1	@ CLE	61	Under	—	45 (71%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 79.5PrizePicks 81.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: FanDuel, updated 8m ago.