NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

DJ Moore WR

BUF vs BAL · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

55.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 10 50%5/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 44.5
Graph avg: 47.8
Graph median: 58.00–100
Over the close: 50%5/10

2026 per game

Targets5.0▼-0.3

Rec3.0▼-0.2

Rec Yds44.5▲+2.5

Rec TD0.2▼-0.2

Snaps33.0▼-25.1

Snap %52.5%▼-31.7

55.5

2025

69

Dec 14
97

Dec 20
7

Dec 28
11

Jan 04
64

Jan 10
52

Jan 18
2026

100

Sep 13
0

Sep 17
67

Sep 27
11

Oct 04
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 55.5

Home 46% 10/22 · avg 48.4
Away 33% 6/18 · avg 48.8
vs BAL 100% 1/1 · avg 73.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 45.5 60% 6/10
O 50.5 60% 6/10
O 55.5 Today 50% 5/10
O 60.5 50% 5/10
O 65.5 40% 4/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs BAL

What BAL allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds195.6#1
Receptions14.0#1
Targets20.6#3
Yds/Target9.5#2
Rec TD0.7#23

WRs vs BAL · 2026

Each main WR who faced BAL this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+13.3

Avg diff %+23%

Beat their average57% (8/14)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Tee Higgins	148	84.6	+75%
Oct 25	Ja'Marr Chase	62	57.8	+7%
Oct 18	Denzel Boston	15	59.5	-75%
Oct 18	KC Concepcion	37	46.3	-20%
Oct 11	Drake London	118	83.0	+42%
Oct 11	Jahan Dotson	54	31.3	+72%
Oct 04	Carnell Tate	145	44.7	+225%
Oct 04	Wan'Dale Robinson	19	31.0	-39%
Sep 27	CeeDee Lamb	112	89.8	+25%
Sep 27	George Pickens	82	67.2	+22%
Sep 20	Chris Olave	86	91.7	-6%
Sep 20	Devaughn Vele	64	47.3	+35%
Sep 13	Keenan Allen	32	45.2	-29%
Sep 13	Josh Downs	37	45.0	-18%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%6.7 yds	6%18.4 yds	6%17.7 yds
Short	30%7.8 yds	15%8.3 yds	36%5.8 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BAL defense

BAL defense: Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.8 yds#5	5%18.7 yds#5	8%16.3 yds#2
Short	30%5.6 yds#17	17%6.7 yds#20	35%5.3 yds#20

Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	14%11.1 yds	10%11.2 yds	7%20.5 yds
Short	18%7.4 yds	21%5.2 yds	30%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	6	5.3	32	19.6%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	6	4.8	29	17.7%
4	Keon Coleman WR	6	4.0	24	14.5%
5	Ty Johnson RB	4	3.0	12	12.7%
6	Josh Palmer WR	4	2.8	11	9.5%
7	James Cook RB	6	2.3	14	8.5%
8	Skyler Bell WR	2	1.5	3	7.2%
9	Dawson Knox TE	6	1.7	10	6.9%
10	Ray Davis RB	5	0.6	3	2.4%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 55.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	11	Under	50.5	23 (39%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	67	Over	48.5	42 (64%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	0	Under	63.5	23 (31%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	100	Over	47.5	44 (76%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs LA	52	Under	28.5	58 (72%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs GB	64	Over	39.5	67 (86%)
2026-01-04	18	vs DET	11	Under	34.5	47 (85%)
2025-12-28	17	@ SF	7	Under	7.5	61 (92%)
2025-12-20	16	vs GB	97	Over	51.5	61 (95%)
2025-12-14	15	vs CLE	69	Over	69.5	58 (88%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 55.5Underdog 59.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: FanDuel, updated 6m ago.