NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

DJ Moore WR

BUF vs BAL · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

55.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 40%16/40 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 44.5
Graph avg: 48.5
Graph median: 47.5-4–106
Over the close: 41%9/22

2026 per game

Targets5.0▼-0.3

Rec3.0▼-0.2

Rec Yds44.5▲+2.5

Rec TD0.2▼-0.2

Snaps33.0▼-25.1

Snap %52.5%▼-31.7

55.5

2024

36

Sep 08
53

Sep 15
78

Sep 22
22

Sep 29
105

Oct 06
20

Oct 13
27

Oct 27
33

Nov 03
24

Nov 10
62

Nov 17
106

Nov 24
97

Nov 28
49

Dec 08
46

Dec 16
68

Dec 22
54

Dec 26
86

Jan 05
2025

68

Sep 08
46

Sep 14
21

Sep 21
38

Sep 28
42

Oct 13
43

Oct 19
73

Oct 26
72

Nov 02
0

Nov 09
18

Nov 16
64

Nov 23
17

Nov 28
-4

Dec 07
69

Dec 14
97

Dec 20
7

Dec 28
11

Jan 04
64

Jan 10
52

Jan 18
2026

100

Sep 13
0

Sep 17
67

Sep 27
11

Oct 04
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 55.5

Home 46% 10/22 · avg 48.4
Away 33% 6/18 · avg 48.8
vs BAL 100% 1/1 · avg 73.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 45.5 55% 22/40
O 50.5 48% 19/40
O 55.5 Today 40% 16/40
O 60.5 40% 16/40
O 65.5 32% 13/40

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs BAL

What BAL allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds195.6#1
Receptions14.0#1
Targets20.6#3
Yds/Target9.5#2
Rec TD0.7#23

WRs vs BAL · 2026

Each main WR who faced BAL this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+13.3

Avg diff %+23%

Beat their average57% (8/14)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Tee Higgins	148	84.6	+75%
Oct 25	Ja'Marr Chase	62	57.8	+7%
Oct 18	Denzel Boston	15	59.5	-75%
Oct 18	KC Concepcion	37	46.3	-20%
Oct 11	Drake London	118	83.0	+42%
Oct 11	Jahan Dotson	54	31.3	+72%
Oct 04	Carnell Tate	145	44.7	+225%
Oct 04	Wan'Dale Robinson	19	31.0	-39%
Sep 27	CeeDee Lamb	112	89.8	+25%
Sep 27	George Pickens	82	67.2	+22%
Sep 20	Chris Olave	86	91.7	-6%
Sep 20	Devaughn Vele	64	47.3	+35%
Sep 13	Keenan Allen	32	45.2	-29%
Sep 13	Josh Downs	37	45.0	-18%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%6.7 yds	6%18.4 yds	6%17.7 yds
Short	30%7.8 yds	15%8.3 yds	36%5.8 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BAL defense

BAL defense: Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.8 yds#5	5%18.7 yds#5	8%16.3 yds#2
Short	30%5.6 yds#17	17%6.7 yds#20	35%5.3 yds#20

Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	14%11.1 yds	10%11.2 yds	7%20.5 yds
Short	18%7.4 yds	21%5.2 yds	30%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	6	5.3	32	19.6%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	6	4.8	29	17.7%
4	Keon Coleman WR	6	4.0	24	14.5%
5	Ty Johnson RB	4	3.0	12	12.7%
6	Josh Palmer WR	4	2.8	11	9.5%
7	James Cook RB	6	2.3	14	8.5%
8	Skyler Bell WR	2	1.5	3	7.2%
9	Dawson Knox TE	6	1.7	10	6.9%
10	Ray Davis RB	5	0.6	3	2.4%

Game log · 40 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 55.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	11	Under	50.5	23 (39%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	67	Over	48.5	42 (64%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	0	Under	63.5	23 (31%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	100	Over	47.5	44 (76%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs LA	52	Under	28.5	58 (72%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs GB	64	Over	39.5	67 (86%)
2026-01-04	18	vs DET	11	Under	34.5	47 (85%)
2025-12-28	17	@ SF	7	Under	7.5	61 (92%)
2025-12-20	16	vs GB	97	Over	51.5	61 (95%)
2025-12-14	15	vs CLE	69	Over	69.5	58 (88%)
2025-12-07	14	@ GB	-4	Under	—	58 (83%)
2025-11-28	13	@ PHI	17	Under	10.5	79 (91%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PIT	64	Over	64.5	50 (77%)
2025-11-16	11	@ MIN	18	Under	20.5	61 (81%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NYG	0	Under	10.5	42 (62%)
2025-11-02	9	@ CIN	72	Over	48.5	68 (85%)
2025-10-26	8	@ BAL	73	Over	36.5	53 (84%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NO	43	Under	45.5	60 (87%)
2025-10-13	6	@ WAS	42	Under	45.5	60 (94%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LV	38	Under	38.5	52 (76%)
2025-09-21	3	vs DAL	21	Under	25.5	53 (90%)
2025-09-14	2	@ DET	46	Under	51.5	60 (88%)
2025-09-08	1	vs MIN	68	Over	65.5	56 (84%)
2025-01-05	18	@ GB	86	Over	—	61 (98%)
2024-12-26	17	vs SEA	54	Under	—	58 (95%)
2024-12-22	16	vs DET	68	Over	—	61 (95%)
2024-12-16	15	@ MIN	46	Under	—	58 (87%)
2024-12-08	14	@ SF	49	Under	—	48 (91%)
2024-11-28	13	@ DET	97	Over	—	65 (97%)
2024-11-24	12	vs MIN	106	Over	—	75 (99%)
2024-11-17	11	vs GB	62	Over	—	68 (94%)
2024-11-10	10	vs NE	24	Under	—	58 (97%)
2024-11-03	9	@ ARI	33	Under	—	73 (99%)
2024-10-27	8	@ WAS	27	Under	—	60 (95%)
2024-10-13	6	vs JAX	20	Under	—	56 (85%)
2024-10-06	5	vs CAR	105	Over	—	66 (88%)
2024-09-29	4	vs LA	22	Under	—	55 (92%)
2024-09-22	3	@ IND	78	Over	—	86 (96%)
2024-09-15	2	@ HOU	53	Under	—	69 (99%)
2024-09-08	1	vs TEN	36	Under	—	49 (88%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 55.5Underdog 59.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: FanDuel, updated 11m ago.