NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Noah Gray TE

KC vs DEN · Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET

14.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · All 55%21/38 Odds imply —

Season avg: 26.3
Graph avg: 20.7
Graph median: 17.50–66
Over the close: 40%8/20

2026 per game

Targets2.3▼-0.3

Rec2.0▲+0.5

Rec Yds26.3▲+13.6

Rec TD0.0+0.0

Snaps36.5▲+1.8

Snap %58.8%▲+6.0

14.5

2024

37

Sep 05
13

Sep 22
40

Sep 29
29

Oct 07
66

Oct 20
23

Oct 27
0

Nov 04
18

Nov 10
23

Nov 17
66

Nov 24
58

Nov 29
26

Dec 08
21

Dec 15
10

Dec 21
6

Dec 25
1

Jan 05
13

Jan 18
2

Feb 09
2025

3

Sep 05
1

Sep 14
17

Sep 21
1

Sep 28
25

Oct 12
28

Oct 19
23

Oct 27
0

Nov 02
9

Nov 16
25

Nov 23
14

Dec 07
0

Dec 21
2

Dec 25
30

Jan 04
2026

5

Sep 14
0

Sep 20
39

Sep 27
17

Oct 04
53

Oct 18
44

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 14.5

Home 53% 10/19 · avg 19.4
Away 58% 11/19 · avg 22.1
vs DEN 20% 1/5 · avg 7.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 4.5 74% 28/38
O 9.5 66% 25/38
O 14.5 Today 55% 21/38
O 19.5 47% 18/38
O 24.5 37% 14/38

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs DEN

What DEN allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds61.9#10
Receptions5.8#11
Targets8.2#7
Yds/Target7.5#12
Rec TD0.5#14

TEs vs DEN · 2026

Each main TE who faced DEN this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+4.8

Avg diff %-3%

Beat their average57% (4/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Trey McBride	111	60.2	+84%
Oct 15	AJ Barner	16	27.3	-41%
Oct 11	Oronde Gadsden II	0	20.6	-100%
Oct 04	George Kittle	70	59.2	+18%
Sep 27	Tyler Higbee	62	39.6	+57%
Sep 20	Brenton Strange	17	52.4	-68%
Sep 14	Travis Kelce	71	54.4	+31%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.2 yds	5%11.2 yds	6%11.5 yds
Short	28%5.5 yds	15%6.5 yds	41%5.7 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DEN defense

DEN defense: Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.2 yds#31	3%11.3 yds#27	7%6.7 yds#28
Short	27%6.7 yds#6	16%7.8 yds#11	39%4.7 yds#31

Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%24.0 yds	4%19.0 yds	7%9.5 yds
Short	30%4.9 yds	26%6.9 yds	30%10.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	6	5.8	35	19.6%
3	Travis Kelce TE	6	5.8	35	18.6%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	6	4.5	27	14.3%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	6	2.3	14	8.4%
7	Andrew Armstrong WR	2	2.0	4	6.6%
8	Jalen Royals WR	6	1.8	11	6.1%
9	Emmett Johnson RB	6	1.8	11	6.0%
10	Cyrus Allen WR	4	1.5	6	5.2%

Game log · 38 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 14.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ SEA	44	Over	16.5	28 (53%)
2026-10-18	6	vs LAC	53	Over	14.5	39 (64%)
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	17	Over	8.5	41 (68%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	39	Over	0.5	33 (63%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	0	Under	11.5	40 (50%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	5	Under	9.5	38 (55%)
2026-01-04	18	@ LV	30	Over	17.5	36 (56%)
2025-12-25	17	vs DEN	2	Under	10.5	21 (49%)
2025-12-21	16	@ TEN	0	Under	15.5	23 (51%)
2025-12-07	14	vs HOU	14	Under	0.5	29 (45%)
2025-11-23	12	vs IND	25	Over	20.5	31 (32%)
2025-11-16	11	@ DEN	9	Under	10.5	36 (51%)
2025-11-02	9	@ BUF	0	Under	0.5	22 (37%)
2025-10-27	8	vs WAS	23	Over	25.5	38 (55%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LV	28	Over	30.5	48 (59%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DET	25	Over	25.5	48 (75%)
2025-09-28	4	vs BAL	1	Under	1.5	41 (56%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NYG	17	Over	10.5	49 (68%)
2025-09-14	2	vs PHI	1	Under	1.5	39 (65%)
2025-09-05	1	@ LAC	3	Under	19.5	25 (41%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	@ PHI	2	Under	—	18 (32%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	13	Under	—	29 (57%)
2025-01-05	18	@ DEN	1	Under	—	4 (12%)
2024-12-25	17	@ PIT	6	Under	—	28 (45%)
2024-12-21	16	vs HOU	10	Under	—	36 (49%)
2024-12-15	15	@ CLE	21	Over	—	41 (55%)
2024-12-08	14	vs LAC	26	Over	—	42 (61%)
2024-11-29	13	vs LV	58	Over	—	44 (62%)
2024-11-24	12	@ CAR	66	Over	—	44 (59%)
2024-11-17	11	@ BUF	23	Over	—	42 (76%)
2024-11-10	10	vs DEN	18	Over	—	39 (57%)
2024-11-04	9	vs TB	0	Under	—	59 (69%)
2024-10-27	8	@ LV	23	Over	—	52 (72%)
2024-10-20	7	@ SF	66	Over	—	47 (67%)
2024-10-07	5	vs NO	29	Over	—	51 (61%)
2024-09-29	4	@ LAC	40	Over	—	32 (52%)
2024-09-22	3	@ ATL	13	Under	—	37 (50%)
2024-09-05	1	vs BAL	37	Over	—	29 (54%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 14.5PrizePicks 16.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: Underdog, updated 8m ago.