NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Zach Charbonnet RB

SEA vs CHI · Mon Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ET

45.5 Rush Yds

Hit rate · All 35%12/34 Odds imply —

Season avg: —
Graph avg: 38.8
Graph median: 33.5-1–134
Over the close: 53%8/15

2026 per game

Carries—

Rush Yds—

Rush TD—

Targets—

Rec—

Rec Yds—

Snaps—

Snap %—

45.5

2024

12

Sep 08
38

Sep 15
91

Sep 22
15

Sep 30
11

Oct 06
20

Oct 10
14

Oct 20
4

Oct 27
8

Nov 03
3

Nov 17
22

Nov 24
28

Dec 01
134

Dec 08
54

Dec 15
-1

Dec 22
57

Dec 26
59

Jan 05
2025

47

Sep 07
10

Sep 14
39

Sep 25
36

Oct 05
24

Oct 12
49

Oct 20
25

Nov 02
83

Nov 09
37

Nov 16
35

Nov 23
52

Nov 30
46

Dec 07
31

Dec 14
32

Dec 18
110

Dec 28
74

Jan 03
20

Jan 17
?

Nov 03

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 45.5

Home 35% 6/17 · avg 33.6
Away 35% 6/17 · avg 44.0
vs CHI 100% 1/1 · avg 57.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 35.5 47% 16/34
O 40.5 35% 12/34
O 45.5 Today 35% 12/34
O 50.5 26% 9/34
O 55.5 21% 7/34

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs CHI

What CHI allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds81.7#26
Yds/Carry4.2#17
Rush TD0.5#24
Targets4.6#29
Rec Yds33.7#11

RBs vs CHI · 2026

Each main RB who faced CHI this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.3

Avg diff %+14%

Beat their average43% (3/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 22	Rhamondre Stevenson	22	43.8	-50%
Oct 18	Bijan Robinson	61	107.2	-43%
Oct 11	MarShawn Lloyd	31	18.5	+68%
Oct 04	Braelon Allen	59	59.8	-1%
Sep 28	Saquon Barkley	82	40.5	+102%
Sep 20	Aaron Jones	105	66.2	+59%
Sep 13	Chuba Hubbard	49	82.0	-40%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SEA offense

SEA offense: Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%10.3 yds	4%11.5 yds	7%16.3 yds
Short	30%6.2 yds	18%7.4 yds	36%6.4 yds

Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CHI defense

CHI defense: Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.8 yds#14	4%19.2 yds#2	10%13.4 yds#9
Short	29%4.8 yds#31	19%8.7 yds#2	32%7.2 yds#2

Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	14%7.0 yds	50%8.0 yds	36%3.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of SEA targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR	7	11.1	78	36.9%
2	Rashid Shaheed WR	7	4.3	30	14.4%
3	AJ Barner TE	7	4.1	29	13.3%
4	Cooper Kupp WR	7	3.9	27	11.7%
5	Jadarian Price RB	3	2.3	7	7.6%
6	George Holani RB	7	2.0	14	6.6%
7	Tory Horton WR	4	2.5	10	6.6%
8	Emanuel Wilson RB	7	1.3	9	5.3%
9	Elijah Arroyo TE	2	1.0	2	3.8%
10	Eric Saubert TE	7	0.7	5	2.0%

Game log · 34 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 45.5	Close	Snaps
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs SF	20	Under	48.5	8 (15%)
2026-01-03	18	@ SF	74	Over	41.5	39 (57%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CAR	110	Over	38.5	35 (53%)
2025-12-18	16	vs LA	32	Under	33.5	38 (56%)
2025-12-14	15	vs IND	31	Under	37.5	33 (55%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ATL	46	Over	40.5	25 (41%)
2025-11-30	13	vs MIN	52	Over	30.5	26 (39%)
2025-11-23	12	@ TEN	35	Under	40.5	15 (31%)
2025-11-16	11	@ LA	37	Under	30.5	36 (43%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ARI	83	Over	39.5	23 (37%)
2025-11-02	9	@ WAS	25	Under	—	18 (35%)
2025-10-20	7	vs HOU	49	Over	—	37 (51%)
2025-10-12	6	@ JAX	24	Under	22.5	33 (60%)
2025-10-05	5	vs TB	36	Under	40.5	34 (56%)
2025-09-25	4	@ ARI	39	Under	40.5	31 (47%)
2025-09-14	2	@ PIT	10	Under	42.5	36 (55%)
2025-09-07	1	vs SF	47	Over	28.5	30 (58%)
2025-01-05	18	@ LA	59	Over	—	42 (76%)
2024-12-26	17	@ CHI	57	Over	—	39 (75%)
2024-12-22	16	vs MIN	-1	Under	—	14 (22%)
2024-12-15	15	vs GB	54	Over	—	47 (80%)
2024-12-08	14	@ ARI	134	Over	—	51 (80%)
2024-12-01	13	@ NYJ	28	Under	—	29 (45%)
2024-11-24	12	vs ARI	22	Under	—	24 (38%)
2024-11-17	11	@ SF	3	Under	—	19 (32%)
2024-11-03	9	vs LA	8	Under	—	20 (25%)
2024-10-27	8	vs BUF	4	Under	—	23 (45%)
2024-10-20	7	@ ATL	14	Under	—	33 (55%)
2024-10-10	6	vs SF	20	Under	—	24 (31%)
2024-10-06	5	vs NYG	11	Under	—	21 (36%)
2024-09-30	4	@ DET	15	Under	—	38 (42%)
2024-09-22	3	vs MIA	91	Over	—	54 (84%)
2024-09-15	2	@ NE	38	Under	—	67 (96%)
2024-09-08	1	vs DEN	12	Under	—	23 (34%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 45.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 8m ago.