NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Cade Otton TE

TB vs ATL · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

30.5 Rec Yds O -113U -111

Hit rate · Last 20 50%10/20 Odds imply 50.2% Over

Season avg: 26.6
Graph avg: 36.6
Graph median: 30.50–94
Over the close: 45%9/20

2026 per game

Targets4.3▼-1.1

Rec2.7▼-1.2

Rec Yds26.6▼-11.6

Rec TD0.0▼-0.1

Snaps62.1▲+0.3

Snap %93.9%▲+0.3

30.5

2025

9

Sep 28
81

Oct 05
51

Oct 12
65

Oct 20
40

Oct 26
82

Nov 09
28

Nov 16
21

Nov 23
9

Nov 30
19

Dec 07
15

Dec 21
33

Dec 28
94

Jan 03
2026

26

Sep 13
38

Sep 20
56

Sep 27
37

Oct 04
25

Oct 08
4

Oct 18
0

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 30.5

Home 72% 13/18 · avg 45.6
Away 32% 6/19 · avg 29.9
vs ATL 67% 2/3 · avg 41.7

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 20.5 70% 14/20
O 25.5 60% 12/20
O 30.5 Today 50% 10/20
O 35.5 45% 9/20
O 40.5 30% 6/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs ATL

What ATL allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds75.7#2
Receptions7.2#2
Targets9.7#2
Yds/Target7.8#9
Rec TD0.5#12

TEs vs ATL · 2026

Each main TE who faced ATL this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+13.3

Avg diff %+41%

Beat their average57% (4/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	George Kittle	88	56.2	+57%
Oct 18	Colston Loveland	65	29.8	+118%
Oct 11	Mark Andrews	28	29.3	-5%
Oct 05	Juwan Johnson	59	32.7	+81%
Sep 24	Tucker Kraft	26	45.2	-42%
Sep 20	Darren Waller	33	33.0	+0%
Sep 13	Pat Freiermuth	46	25.7	+79%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TB offense

TB offense: Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.9 yds	4%13.4 yds	6%8.5 yds
Short	34%5.1 yds	14%7.2 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ATL defense

ATL defense: Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.6 yds#27	3%19.0 yds#4	8%9.4 yds#22
Short	32%6.4 yds#8	14%6.6 yds#22	33%5.3 yds#19

Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	2%0.0 yds	4%9.0 yds	4%0.0 yds
Short	11%9.8 yds	27%5.3 yds	51%8.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TB targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Emeka Egbuka WR	6	8.2	49	25.6%
2	Chris Godwin Jr. WR	7	4.9	34	19.9%
3	Cade Otton TE	7	4.3	30	15.3%
4	Ted Hurst III WR	6	3.8	23	12.7%
5	Bucky Irving RB	7	3.3	23	12.4%
6	Tez Johnson WR	7	2.1	15	8.4%
7	Kenny Gainwell RB	7	2.4	17	8.0%
8	Payne Durham TE	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Jalen McMillan WR	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Kameron Johnson WR	7	0.3	2	1.1%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 30.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ CAR	0	Under	37.5	56 (89%)
2026-10-18	6	vs PIT	4	Under	27.5	74 (100%)
2026-10-08	5	@ DAL	25	Under	30.5	66 (92%)
2026-10-04	4	vs GB	37	Over	24.5	60 (95%)
2026-09-27	3	vs MIN	56	Over	27.5	65 (94%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CLE	38	Over	27.5	58 (89%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CIN	26	Under	31.5	56 (98%)
2026-01-03	18	vs CAR	94	Over	44.5	64 (96%)
2025-12-28	17	@ MIA	33	Over	23.5	65 (97%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CAR	15	Under	6.5	60 (94%)
2025-12-07	14	vs NO	19	Under	16.5	60 (81%)
2025-11-30	13	vs ARI	9	Under	9.5	59 (97%)
2025-11-23	12	@ LA	21	Under	36.5	60 (86%)
2025-11-16	11	@ BUF	28	Under	38.5	68 (97%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NE	82	Over	66.5	67 (97%)
2025-10-26	8	@ NO	40	Over	40.5	56 (97%)
2025-10-20	7	@ DET	65	Over	65.5	67 (97%)
2025-10-12	6	vs SF	51	Over	55.5	53 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ SEA	81	Over	22.5	56 (92%)
2025-09-28	4	vs PHI	9	Under	10.5	69 (96%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 30.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.