NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

George Pickens WR

DAL vs ARI · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

65.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 65%13/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 69.3
Graph avg: 80.7
Graph median: 78.09–168
Over the close: 41%7/17

2026 per game

Targets8.3▲+0.2

Rec5.3▼-0.2

Rec Yds69.3▼-14.8

Rec TD0.3▼-0.2

Snaps54.9▼-2.1

Snap %81.0%▼-0.1

65.5

2025

57

Oct 05
168

Oct 12
82

Oct 19
78

Oct 26
79

Nov 03
144

Nov 17
146

Nov 23
88

Nov 27
37

Dec 04
33

Dec 14
130

Dec 21
78

Dec 25
9

Jan 04
2026

28

Sep 13
40

Sep 20
82

Sep 27
75

Oct 04
130

Oct 08
73

Oct 18
57

Oct 26
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 65.5

Home 67% 12/18 · avg 78.8
Away 57% 12/21 · avg 70.6
vs ARI 100% 1/1 · avg 79.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 45.5 75% 15/20
O 55.5 75% 15/20
O 65.5 Today 65% 13/20
O 75.5 55% 11/20
O 85.5 30% 6/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds138.5#18
Receptions9.9#27
Targets15.9#29
Yds/Target8.7#9
Rec TD1.3#2

WRs vs ARI · 2026

Each main WR who faced ARI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-5.2

Avg diff %+0%

Beat their average43% (6/14)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Jaylen Waddle	48	38.0	+26%
Oct 25	Courtland Sutton	45	20.5	+120%
Oct 18	Puka Nacua	80	101.2	-21%
Oct 18	Davante Adams	39	88.2	-56%
Oct 11	Amon-Ra St. Brown	69	91.2	-24%
Oct 11	Jameson Williams	47	64.0	-27%
Oct 04	Malik Nabers	112	82.2	+36%
Oct 04	Malachi Fields	52	32.7	+59%
Sep 27	Mike Evans	34	77.2	-56%
Sep 27	Jordan Watkins	60	39.0	+54%
Sep 20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	155	118.7	+31%
Sep 20	Cooper Kupp	20	29.8	-33%
Sep 13	Tre Harris	20	51.2	-61%
Sep 13	Quentin Johnston	17	37.0	-54%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DAL offense

DAL offense: Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.6 yds	4%23.2 yds	6%10.5 yds
Short	32%6.6 yds	14%5.1 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.4 yds#17	3%13.8 yds#18	11%11.2 yds#13
Short	30%6.9 yds#3	18%7.8 yds#13	30%6.9 yds#3

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	13%14.3 yds	3%37.0 yds	7%4.2 yds
Short	37%10.1 yds	9%8.6 yds	31%5.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DAL targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	CeeDee Lamb WR	7	11.6	81	30.8%
2	George Pickens WR	7	8.3	58	22.1%
3	Ryan Flournoy WR	7	5.7	40	15.1%
4	Jake Ferguson TE	7	3.6	25	9.3%
5	Javonte Williams RB	7	3.1	22	8.5%
6	Brevyn Spann-Ford TE	7	1.9	13	4.7%
7	Jonathan Mingo WR	5	1.6	8	4.3%
8	KaVontae Turpin WR	6	1.2	7	3.0%
9	Luke Schoonmaker TE	3	1.0	3	2.7%
10	Tyler Goodson RB	4	1.2	5	2.6%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 65.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-26	7	@ PHI	57	Under	64.5	41 (60%)
2026-10-18	6	@ GB	73	Over	69.5	69 (88%)
2026-10-08	5	vs TB	130	Over	64.5	53 (88%)
2026-10-04	4	@ HOU	75	Over	69.5	67 (86%)
2026-09-27	3	vs BAL	82	Over	64.5	63 (85%)
2026-09-20	2	vs WAS	40	Under	65.5	42 (76%)
2026-09-13	1	@ NYG	28	Under	67.5	49 (84%)
2026-01-04	18	@ NYG	9	Under	42.5	25 (45%)
2025-12-25	17	@ WAS	78	Over	57.5	80 (87%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LAC	130	Over	139.5	51 (88%)
2025-12-14	15	vs MIN	33	Under	44.5	60 (86%)
2025-12-04	14	@ DET	37	Under	44.5	69 (84%)
2025-11-27	13	vs KC	88	Over	80.5	53 (74%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PHI	146	Over	130.5	58 (78%)
2025-11-17	11	@ LV	144	Over	145.5	45 (67%)
2025-11-03	9	vs ARI	79	Over	—	61 (91%)
2025-10-26	8	@ DEN	78	Over	85.5	59 (80%)
2025-10-19	7	vs WAS	82	Over	92.5	56 (84%)
2025-10-12	6	@ CAR	168	Over	—	46 (84%)
2025-10-05	5	@ NYJ	57	Under	—	47 (78%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 65.5Underdog 69.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: FanDuel, updated 10m ago.