NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Ray Davis RB

BUF vs BAL · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

4.5 Rush Yds O -116U -108

Hit rate · All 48%21/44 Odds imply 50.8% Over

Season avg: 2.4
Graph avg: 17.4
Graph median: 4.0-2–151
Over the close: 0%0/11

2026 per game

Carries1.0▼-2.1

Rush Yds2.4▼-12.1

Rush TD0.0+0.0

Targets0.6▼-0.2

Rec0.6-0.0

Rec Yds8.0▲+1.7

Snaps7.6▼-3.7

Snap %11.8%▼-4.5

4.5

2024

0

Oct 06
97

Oct 14
41

Oct 20
29

Oct 27
20

Nov 03
6

Nov 10
11

Nov 17
63

Dec 01
0

Dec 08
15

Dec 15
12

Dec 22
9

Dec 29
64

Jan 05
3

Jan 12
29

Jan 19
4

Jan 26
2025

2

Sep 07
24

Sep 14
0

Sep 18
3

Sep 28
1

Oct 05
0

Oct 13
16

Oct 26
0

Nov 02
-2

Nov 09
0

Nov 16
0

Nov 20
62

Nov 30
0

Dec 07
0

Dec 14
14

Dec 21
4

Dec 28
151

Jan 04
0

Jan 11
0

Jan 17
2026

3

Sep 13
0

Sep 17
3

Oct 04
2

Oct 12
4

Oct 18
?

Nov 01

Showing the latest 40 of 44 games.

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 48% 10/21 · avg 18.4
Away 48% 11/23 · avg 16.4
vs BAL 67% 2/3 · avg 14.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 4.5 Today 48% 21/44
O 9.5 43% 19/44
O 14.5 32% 14/44

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs BAL

What BAL allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds69.3#30
Yds/Carry3.7#28
Rush TD0.9#8
Targets6.3#8
Rec Yds25.7#27

RBs vs BAL · 2026

Each main RB who faced BAL this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.1

Avg diff %+55%

Beat their average43% (3/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Chase Brown	39	49.2	-21%
Oct 18	Jaleel McLaughlin	41	7.8	+429%
Oct 11	Bijan Robinson	86	103.0	-17%
Oct 04	Tony Pollard	48	71.7	-33%
Sep 27	Javonte Williams	98	62.3	+57%
Sep 20	Travis Etienne	25	51.5	-51%
Sep 13	Jonathan Taylor	98	81.5	+20%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%6.7 yds	6%18.4 yds	6%17.7 yds
Short	30%7.8 yds	15%8.3 yds	36%5.8 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BAL defense

BAL defense: Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.8 yds#5	5%18.7 yds#5	8%16.3 yds#2
Short	30%5.6 yds#17	17%6.7 yds#20	35%5.3 yds#20

Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	21%11.7 yds	14%2.5 yds	64%8.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	6	5.3	32	19.6%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	6	4.8	29	17.7%
4	Keon Coleman WR	6	4.0	24	14.5%
5	Ty Johnson RB	4	3.0	12	12.7%
6	Josh Palmer WR	4	2.8	11	9.5%
7	James Cook RB	6	2.3	14	8.5%
8	Skyler Bell WR	2	1.5	3	7.2%
9	Dawson Knox TE	6	1.7	10	6.9%
10	Ray Davis RB	5	0.6	3	2.4%

Game log · 44 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-18	6	@ LV	4	Under	9.5	9 (13%)
2026-10-12	5	@ LA	2	Under	2.5	10 (16%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	3	Under	—	4 (7%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	0	Under	7.5	10 (14%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	3	Under	—	5 (9%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ DEN	0	Under	4.5	27 (35%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ JAX	0	Under	10.5	20 (32%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NYJ	151	Over	—	48 (64%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PHI	4	Under	—	10 (13%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CLE	14	Over	—	8 (16%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NE	0	Under	—	6 (9%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	0	Under	8.5	4 (6%)
2025-11-30	13	@ PIT	62	Over	—	13 (18%)
2025-11-20	12	@ HOU	0	Under	—	6 (9%)
2025-11-16	11	vs TB	0	Under	—	1 (2%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIA	-2	Under	24.5	7 (10%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	0	Under	—	3 (5%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CAR	16	Over	—	15 (24%)
2025-10-13	6	@ ATL	0	Under	—	2 (4%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	1	Under	2.5	6 (9%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	3	Under	18.5	5 (8%)
2025-09-18	3	vs MIA	0	Under	10.5	4 (7%)
2025-09-14	2	@ NYJ	24	Over	—	20 (27%)
2025-09-07	1	vs BAL	2	Under	5.5	10 (12%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	@ KC	4	Under	—	9 (12%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	vs BAL	29	Over	—	6 (10%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	vs DEN	3	Under	—	7 (9%)
2025-01-05	18	@ NE	64	Over	—	35 (52%)
2024-12-29	17	vs NYJ	9	Over	—	16 (23%)
2024-12-22	16	vs NE	12	Over	—	14 (24%)
2024-12-15	15	@ DET	15	Over	—	18 (26%)
2024-12-08	14	@ LA	0	Under	—	13 (22%)
2024-12-01	13	vs SF	63	Over	—	19 (33%)
2024-11-17	11	vs KC	11	Over	—	15 (21%)
2024-11-10	10	@ IND	6	Over	—	11 (15%)
2024-11-03	9	vs MIA	20	Over	—	9 (14%)
2024-10-27	8	@ SEA	29	Over	—	17 (22%)
2024-10-20	7	vs TEN	41	Over	—	13 (24%)
2024-10-14	6	@ NYJ	97	Over	—	40 (58%)
2024-10-06	5	@ HOU	0	Under	—	2 (3%)
2024-09-29	4	@ BAL	11	Over	—	10 (17%)
2024-09-23	3	vs JAX	22	Over	—	12 (19%)
2024-09-12	2	@ MIA	29	Over	—	14 (31%)
2024-09-08	1	vs ARI	13	Over	—	6 (10%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 4.5Underdog 4.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 8m ago.