NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Luther Burden III WR

CHI vs SEA · Mon Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ET

51.5 Rec Yds O -111U -113

Hit rate · Last 10 50%5/10 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 70.1
Graph avg: 59.2
Graph median: 54.024–130
Over the close: 60%6/10

2026 per game

Targets6.7▲+2.4

Rec5.0▲+1.9

Rec Yds70.1▲+27.9

Rec TD0.3▲+0.2

Snaps45.4▲+16.4

Snap %60.6%▲+18.7

51.5

2025

35

Jan 04
42

Jan 10
24

Jan 18
2026

63

Sep 13
32

Sep 20
61

Sep 28
63

Oct 04
47

Oct 11
95

Oct 18
130

Oct 22
?

Nov 03

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 51.5

Home 38% 5/13 · avg 52.9
Away 36% 4/11 · avg 47.4
vs SEA No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 41.5 70% 7/10
O 46.5 60% 6/10
O 51.5 Today 50% 5/10
O 56.5 50% 5/10
O 61.5 40% 4/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs SEA

What SEA allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds110.8#32
Receptions9.2#31
Targets16.7#26
Yds/Target6.6#30
Rec TD0.7#26

WRs vs SEA · 2026

Each main WR who faced SEA this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-10.9

Avg diff %-17%

Beat their average29% (4/14)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Xavier Worthy	11	41.2	-73%
Oct 25	Cyrus Allen	18	9.0	+100%
Oct 15	Jaylen Waddle	24	42.0	-43%
Oct 15	Courtland Sutton	19	24.8	-23%
Oct 11	Mike Evans	113	61.4	+84%
Oct 11	Deebo Samuel Sr.	21	46.2	-55%
Oct 04	Ladd McConkey	0	50.0	-100%
Oct 04	Tre Harris	60	41.2	+45%
Sep 27	Stefon Diggs	33	45.2	-27%
Sep 27	Terry McLaurin	77	38.2	+101%
Sep 20	Michael Wilson	18	59.5	-70%
Sep 20	Kendrick Bourne	11	44.6	-75%
Sep 09	Mack Hollins	51	52.7	-3%
Sep 09	Romeo Doubs	0	52.2	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CHI offense

CHI offense: Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%14.0 yds	5%12.5 yds	9%6.8 yds
Short	22%5.8 yds	22%7.4 yds	36%6.1 yds

Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

SEA defense

SEA defense: Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.8 yds#26	2%16.8 yds#10	10%9.2 yds#23
Short	30%5.5 yds#19	17%5.2 yds#31	32%4.6 yds#32

Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%20.5 yds	9%14.2 yds	9%7.3 yds
Short	25%6.0 yds	23%7.3 yds	28%9.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CHI targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Luther Burden III WR	7	6.7	47	21.0%
2	Colston Loveland TE	7	6.0	42	18.9%
3	Rome Odunze WR	7	5.4	38	16.6%
4	Kalif Raymond WR	7	4.4	31	14.4%
5	D'Andre Swift RB	7	3.6	25	11.0%
6	Cole Kmet TE	7	2.0	14	6.5%
7	Roschon Johnson RB	5	2.0	10	5.4%
8	Kyle Monangai RB	4	1.2	5	4.4%
9	Sam Roush TE	5	1.0	5	3.2%
10	Zavion Thomas WR	6	0.8	5	2.4%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 51.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-22	7	vs NE	130	Over	56.5	42 (61%)
2026-10-18	6	@ ATL	95	Over	53.5	30 (39%)
2026-10-11	5	@ GB	47	Under	46.5	53 (77%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NYJ	63	Over	46.5	52 (56%)
2026-09-28	3	vs PHI	61	Over	33.5	44 (61%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIN	32	Under	49.5	42 (57%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CAR	63	Over	57.5	55 (73%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs LA	24	Under	38.5	43 (53%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs GB	42	Under	42.5	49 (63%)
2026-01-04	18	vs DET	35	Under	35.5	34 (62%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 49.5PrizePicks 52.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.