NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Caleb Williams QB

CHI vs SEA · Mon Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ET

227.5 Pass Yds O -113U -111

Hit rate · All 48%19/40 Odds imply 50.2% Over

Season avg: 255.0
Graph avg: 228.0
Graph median: 223.093–363
Over the close: 73%16/22

2026 per game

Pass Yds255.0▲+15.0

Att31.0▼-3.6

Cmp%71.0%▲+13.7

Pass TD1.2▼-0.4

INT0.2▼-0.4

Rush Yds32.0▲+8.4

Snaps71.2▲+2.7

Snap %96.5%▼-2.7

227.5

2024

93

Sep 08
174

Sep 15
363

Sep 22
157

Sep 29
304

Oct 06
226

Oct 13
131

Oct 27
217

Nov 03
120

Nov 10
231

Nov 17
340

Nov 24
256

Nov 28
134

Dec 08
191

Dec 16
334

Dec 22
122

Dec 26
148

Jan 05
2025

210

Sep 08
207

Sep 14
298

Sep 21
212

Sep 28
252

Oct 13
172

Oct 19
285

Oct 26
280

Nov 02
220

Nov 09
193

Nov 16
239

Nov 23
154

Nov 28
186

Dec 07
242

Dec 14
250

Dec 20
330

Dec 28
212

Jan 04
361

Jan 10
257

Jan 18
2026

269

Sep 13
138

Sep 20
305

Oct 18
308

Oct 22
?

Nov 03

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 227.5

Home 52% 11/21 · avg 230.2
Away 42% 8/19 · avg 225.6
vs SEA 0% 0/1 · avg 122.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 207.5 62% 25/40
O 217.5 52% 21/40
O 227.5 Today 48% 19/40
O 237.5 45% 18/40
O 247.5 40% 16/40

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs SEA

What SEA allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds191.9#30
Yds/Att6.0#31
Cmp%62.0%#23
Pass TD1.3#19
Pass Att32.1#19

QBs vs SEA · 2026

Each main QB who faced SEA this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-56.7

Avg diff %-10%

Beat their average14% (1/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Patrick Mahomes	165	261.8	-37%
Oct 15	Bo Nix	107	194.0	-45%
Oct 11	Brock Purdy	189	259.8	-27%
Oct 04	Justin Herbert	189	190.4	-1%
Sep 27	Marcus Mariota	183	78.5	+133%
Sep 20	Jacoby Brissett	95	250.8	-62%
Sep 09	Drake Maye	178	267.7	-33%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CHI offense

CHI offense: Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%14.0 yds	5%12.5 yds	9%6.8 yds
Short	22%5.8 yds	22%7.4 yds	36%6.1 yds

Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

SEA defense

SEA defense: Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.8 yds#26	2%16.8 yds#10	10%9.2 yds#23
Short	30%5.5 yds#19	17%5.2 yds#31	32%4.6 yds#32

Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%14.4 yds	6%15.2 yds	9%7.1 yds
Short	22%6.3 yds	18%5.9 yds	37%6.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of CHI targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Luther Burden III WR	7	6.7	47	21.0%
2	Colston Loveland TE	7	6.0	42	18.9%
3	Rome Odunze WR	7	5.4	38	16.6%
4	Kalif Raymond WR	7	4.4	31	14.4%
5	D'Andre Swift RB	7	3.6	25	11.0%
6	Cole Kmet TE	7	2.0	14	6.5%
7	Roschon Johnson RB	5	2.0	10	5.4%
8	Kyle Monangai RB	4	1.2	5	4.4%
9	Sam Roush TE	5	1.0	5	3.2%
10	Zavion Thomas WR	6	0.8	5	2.4%

Game log · 40 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 227.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-22	7	vs NE	308	Over	244.5	69 (100%)
2026-10-18	6	@ ATL	305	Over	231.5	77 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIN	138	Under	225.5	64 (86%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CAR	269	Over	229.5	75 (100%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs LA	257	Over	214.5	81 (100%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs GB	361	Over	319.5	78 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs DET	212	Under	187.5	55 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ SF	330	Over	300.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-20	16	vs GB	250	Over	180.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs CLE	242	Over	250.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ GB	186	Under	—	70 (100%)
2025-11-28	13	@ PHI	154	Under	130.5	87 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PIT	239	Over	221.5	65 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ MIN	193	Under	220.5	75 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NYG	220	Under	216.5	68 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ CIN	280	Over	225.5	80 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	@ BAL	285	Over	256.5	63 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NO	172	Under	165.5	69 (100%)
2025-10-13	6	@ WAS	252	Over	284.5	64 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LV	212	Under	215.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs DAL	298	Over	221.5	59 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	@ DET	207	Under	223.5	57 (84%)
2025-09-08	1	vs MIN	210	Under	202.5	67 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	@ GB	148	Under	—	62 (100%)
2024-12-26	17	vs SEA	122	Under	—	61 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	vs DET	334	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-12-16	15	@ MIN	191	Under	—	64 (96%)
2024-12-08	14	@ SF	134	Under	—	49 (92%)
2024-11-28	13	@ DET	256	Over	—	67 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	vs MIN	340	Over	—	76 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	vs GB	231	Over	—	72 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	vs NE	120	Under	—	60 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	@ ARI	217	Under	—	74 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	@ WAS	131	Under	—	63 (100%)
2024-10-13	6	vs JAX	226	Under	—	63 (95%)
2024-10-06	5	vs CAR	304	Over	—	72 (96%)
2024-09-29	4	vs LA	157	Under	—	60 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ IND	363	Over	—	90 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	@ HOU	174	Under	—	70 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	vs TEN	93	Under	—	56 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 224.5PrizePicks 227.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 6m ago.