NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Javonte Williams RB

DAL vs ARI · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

78.5 Rush Yds O -115U -115

Hit rate · Last 10 30%3/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 67.4
Graph avg: 65.1
Graph median: 49.530–155
Over the close: 30%3/10

2026 per game

Carries15.7-0.0

Rush Yds67.4▼-7.6

Rush TD1.1▲+0.5

Targets3.1-0.0

Rec2.7▲+0.5

Rec Yds14.7▲+6.2

Snaps50.1▲+2.1

Snap %74.9%▲+5.9

78.5

2025

91

Dec 14
34

Dec 21
54

Dec 25
2026

41

Sep 13
30

Sep 20
98

Sep 27
62

Oct 04
45

Oct 08
41

Oct 18
155

Oct 26
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 78.5

Home 37% 7/19 · avg 56.5
Away 18% 4/22 · avg 51.9
vs ARI 100% 1/1 · avg 83.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 58.5 40% 4/10
O 68.5 30% 3/10
O 78.5 Today 30% 3/10
O 88.5 30% 3/10
O 98.5 10% 1/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds111.5#4
Yds/Carry4.4#10
Rush TD0.8#9
Targets5.6#14
Rec Yds39.4#6

RBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main RB who faced ARI this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+7.7

Avg diff %+10%

Beat their average43% (3/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	J.K. Dobbins	23	45.0	-49%
Oct 18	Kyren Williams	50	73.7	-32%
Oct 11	Jahmyr Gibbs	151	93.8	+61%
Oct 04	Cam Skattebo	58	72.0	-19%
Sep 27	Christian McCaffrey	75	52.3	+43%
Sep 20	Emanuel Wilson	92	51.8	+77%
Sep 13	Omarion Hampton	43	49.2	-13%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DAL offense

DAL offense: Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.6 yds	4%23.2 yds	6%10.5 yds
Short	32%6.6 yds	14%5.1 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.4 yds#17	3%13.8 yds#18	11%11.2 yds#13
Short	30%6.9 yds#3	18%7.8 yds#13	30%6.9 yds#3

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	35%4.9 yds	18%3.0 yds	47%3.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DAL targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	CeeDee Lamb WR	7	11.6	81	30.8%
2	George Pickens WR	7	8.3	58	22.1%
3	Ryan Flournoy WR	7	5.7	40	15.1%
4	Jake Ferguson TE	7	3.6	25	9.3%
5	Javonte Williams RB	7	3.1	22	8.5%
6	Brevyn Spann-Ford TE	7	1.9	13	4.7%
7	Jonathan Mingo WR	5	1.6	8	4.3%
8	KaVontae Turpin WR	6	1.2	7	3.0%
9	Luke Schoonmaker TE	3	1.0	3	2.7%
10	Tyler Goodson RB	4	1.2	5	2.6%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 78.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-26	7	@ PHI	155	Over	64.5	44 (65%)
2026-10-18	6	@ GB	41	Under	66.5	57 (73%)
2026-10-08	5	vs TB	45	Under	66.5	51 (85%)
2026-10-04	4	@ HOU	62	Under	58.5	58 (74%)
2026-09-27	3	vs BAL	98	Over	54.5	56 (76%)
2026-09-20	2	vs WAS	30	Under	76.5	44 (80%)
2026-09-13	1	@ NYG	41	Under	75.5	41 (71%)
2025-12-25	17	@ WAS	54	Under	72.5	25 (27%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LAC	34	Under	34.5	33 (57%)
2025-12-14	15	vs MIN	91	Over	91.5	20 (29%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 78.5Underdog 79.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: BetMGM, updated 9m ago.