NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Kenneth Walker III RB

KC vs DEN · Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET

87.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 27%10/37 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 116.8
Graph avg: 70.6
Graph median: 67.012–177
Over the close: 56%13/23

2026 per game

Carries20.0▲+5.7

Rush Yds116.8▲+49.8

Rush TD1.0▲+0.6

Targets4.5▲+2.1

Rec3.0▲+1.0

Rec Yds19.3+0.0

Snaps46.7▲+15.7

Snap %74.3%▲+25.0

87.5

2024

103

Sep 08
80

Sep 30
19

Oct 06
32

Oct 10
69

Oct 20
12

Oct 27
83

Nov 03
54

Nov 17
41

Nov 24
49

Dec 01
31

Dec 22
2025

20

Sep 07
105

Sep 14
38

Sep 21
81

Sep 25
86

Oct 05
34

Oct 12
66

Oct 20
42

Nov 02
67

Nov 09
67

Nov 16
71

Nov 23
56

Nov 30
29

Dec 07
17

Dec 14
100

Dec 18
51

Dec 28
97

Jan 03
116

Jan 17
62

Jan 25
135

Feb 08
2026

173

Sep 14
117

Sep 20
70

Sep 27
177

Oct 04
128

Oct 18
36

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 87.5

Home 30% 6/20 · avg 68.3
Away 24% 4/17 · avg 73.4
vs DEN 100% 2/2 · avg 138.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 67.5 46% 17/37
O 77.5 38% 14/37
O 87.5 Today 27% 10/37
O 97.5 24% 9/37
O 107.5 16% 6/37

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs DEN

What DEN allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds95.1#16
Yds/Carry4.2#16
Rush TD0.5#27
Targets5.9#11
Rec Yds30.7#20

RBs vs DEN · 2026

Each main RB who faced DEN this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+10.0

Avg diff %+10%

Beat their average57% (4/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Bam Knight	48	37.3	+29%
Oct 15	Emanuel Wilson	52	58.5	-11%
Oct 11	Omarion Hampton	33	51.2	-36%
Oct 04	Christian McCaffrey	52	56.2	-7%
Sep 27	Kyren Williams	88	67.3	+31%
Sep 20	Bhayshul Tuten	65	64.6	+1%
Sep 14	Kenneth Walker III	173	105.6	+64%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.2 yds	5%11.2 yds	6%11.5 yds
Short	28%5.5 yds	15%6.5 yds	41%5.7 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DEN defense

DEN defense: Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.2 yds#31	3%11.3 yds#27	7%6.7 yds#28
Short	27%6.7 yds#6	16%7.8 yds#11	39%4.7 yds#31

Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	45%7.7 yds	14%3.0 yds	40%5.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	6	5.8	35	19.6%
3	Travis Kelce TE	6	5.8	35	18.6%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	6	4.5	27	14.3%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	6	2.3	14	8.4%
7	Andrew Armstrong WR	2	2.0	4	6.6%
8	Jalen Royals WR	6	1.8	11	6.1%
9	Emmett Johnson RB	6	1.8	11	6.0%
10	Cyrus Allen WR	4	1.5	6	5.2%

Game log · 37 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 87.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ SEA	36	Under	79.5	39 (74%)
2026-10-18	6	vs LAC	128	Over	94.5	45 (74%)
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	177	Over	86.5	45 (75%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	70	Under	82.5	38 (73%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	117	Over	83.5	66 (82%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	173	Over	64.5	47 (68%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	@ NE	135	Over	70.5	47 (65%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs LA	62	Under	80.5	42 (63%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs SF	116	Over	58.5	33 (62%)
2026-01-03	18	@ SF	97	Over	48.5	29 (42%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CAR	51	Under	54.5	31 (47%)
2025-12-18	16	vs LA	100	Over	45.5	30 (44%)
2025-12-14	15	vs IND	17	Under	57.5	25 (42%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ATL	29	Under	63.5	32 (52%)
2025-11-30	13	vs MIN	56	Under	66.5	37 (55%)
2025-11-23	12	@ TEN	71	Under	71.5	30 (62%)
2025-11-16	11	@ LA	67	Under	65.5	43 (51%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ARI	67	Under	55.5	27 (44%)
2025-11-02	9	@ WAS	42	Under	—	29 (57%)
2025-10-20	7	vs HOU	66	Under	—	32 (44%)
2025-10-12	6	@ JAX	34	Under	36.5	19 (35%)
2025-10-05	5	vs TB	86	Under	49.5	27 (44%)
2025-09-25	4	@ ARI	81	Under	65.5	33 (50%)
2025-09-21	3	vs NO	38	Under	—	30 (53%)
2025-09-14	2	@ PIT	105	Over	45.5	23 (35%)
2025-09-07	1	vs SF	20	Under	57.5	21 (40%)
2024-12-22	16	vs MIN	31	Under	—	38 (59%)
2024-12-01	13	@ NYJ	49	Under	—	39 (61%)
2024-11-24	12	vs ARI	41	Under	—	41 (64%)
2024-11-17	11	@ SF	54	Under	—	44 (73%)
2024-11-03	9	vs LA	83	Under	—	61 (76%)
2024-10-27	8	vs BUF	12	Under	—	28 (55%)
2024-10-20	7	@ ATL	69	Under	—	28 (47%)
2024-10-10	6	vs SF	32	Under	—	54 (69%)
2024-10-06	5	vs NYG	19	Under	—	39 (67%)
2024-09-30	4	@ DET	80	Under	—	53 (59%)
2024-09-08	1	vs DEN	103	Over	—	44 (66%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 88.5Underdog 89.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: FanDuel, updated 10m ago.