NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Patrick Mahomes QB

KC vs DEN · Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET

223.5 Pass Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 10 60%6/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 245.7
Graph avg: 243.6
Graph median: 235.5160–382
Over the close: 50%5/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds245.7▼-10.5

Att31.8▼-4.0

Cmp%64.9%▲+2.2

Pass TD1.5▼-0.1

INT0.7▼-0.1

Rush Yds11.8▼-18.3

Snaps62.5▼-4.2

Snap %100.0%▲+2.6

223.5

2025

352

Nov 23
261

Nov 27
160

Dec 07
189

Dec 14
2026

184

Sep 14
382

Sep 20
246

Sep 27
225

Oct 04
272

Oct 18
165

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 223.5

Home 67% 14/21 · avg 255.5
Away 72% 13/18 · avg 239.0
vs DEN 67% 2/3 · avg 242.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 203.5 60% 6/10
O 213.5 60% 6/10
O 223.5 Today 60% 6/10
O 233.5 50% 5/10
O 243.5 50% 5/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs DEN

What DEN allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds215.7#25
Yds/Att5.9#32
Cmp%55.4%#32
Pass TD1.1#28
Pass Att36.8#3

QBs vs DEN · 2026

Each main QB who faced DEN this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.9

Avg diff %-1%

Beat their average43% (3/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Jacoby Brissett	272	221.3	+23%
Oct 15	Sam Darnold	278	202.4	+37%
Oct 11	Justin Herbert	121	204.0	-41%
Oct 04	Brock Purdy	218	255.0	-15%
Sep 27	Matthew Stafford	390	266.5	+46%
Sep 20	Trevor Lawrence	189	258.2	-27%
Sep 14	Patrick Mahomes	184	258.0	-29%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.2 yds	5%11.2 yds	6%11.5 yds
Short	28%5.5 yds	15%6.5 yds	41%5.7 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DEN defense

DEN defense: Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.2 yds#31	3%11.3 yds#27	7%6.7 yds#28
Short	27%6.7 yds#6	16%7.8 yds#11	39%4.7 yds#31

Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%12.5 yds	5%12.4 yds	8%11.7 yds
Short	25%6.6 yds	18%6.4 yds	39%6.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	6	5.8	35	19.6%
3	Travis Kelce TE	6	5.8	35	18.6%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	6	4.5	27	14.3%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	6	2.3	14	8.4%
7	Andrew Armstrong WR	2	2.0	4	6.6%
8	Jalen Royals WR	6	1.8	11	6.1%
9	Emmett Johnson RB	6	1.8	11	6.0%
10	Cyrus Allen WR	4	1.5	6	5.2%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 223.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ SEA	165	Under	220.5	53 (100%)
2026-10-18	6	vs LAC	272	Over	223.5	61 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	225	Over	238.5	60 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	246	Over	235.5	52 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	382	Over	222.5	80 (100%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	184	Under	224.5	69 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LAC	189	Under	217.5	56 (92%)
2025-12-07	14	vs HOU	160	Under	194.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-27	13	@ DAL	261	Over	260.5	66 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs IND	352	Over	275.5	96 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 223.5Underdog 224.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: FanDuel, updated 10m ago.