NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Corey Kiner RB

NE vs MIA · Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET

18.5 Rush Yds O -113U -115

Hit rate · Last 20 27%3/11 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 21.6
Graph avg: 19.0
Graph median: 13.00–57
Over the close: 50%1/2

2026 per game

Carries5.0▲+2.0

Rush Yds21.6▲+7.1

Rush TD0.0+0.0

Targets0.3▼-0.5

Rec0.3▼-0.2

Rec Yds2.3▼-1.5

Snaps7.9▲+0.4

Snap %11.9%▼-1.4

18.5

2025

11

Dec 14
32

Dec 21
2

Dec 28
13

Jan 04
2026

11

Sep 09
0

Sep 20
18

Sep 27
0

Oct 04
52

Oct 11
57

Oct 18
13

Oct 22
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 18.5

Home 75% 3/4 · avg 35.2
Away 0% 0/7 · avg 9.7
vs MIA No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 8.5 73% 8/11
O 13.5 36% 4/11
O 18.5 Today 27% 3/11
O 23.5 27% 3/11
O 28.5 27% 3/11

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs MIA

What MIA allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds106.8#8
Yds/Carry4.5#8
Rush TD1.0#5
Targets6.8#5
Rec Yds43.9#3

RBs vs MIA · 2026

Each main RB who faced MIA this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+6.2

Avg diff %+30%

Beat their average50% (3/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Braelon Allen	104	52.3	+99%
Oct 11	Chase Brown	39	49.2	-21%
Oct 04	Aaron Jones	94	68.4	+37%
Sep 27	Kenneth Walker III	70	126.2	-45%
Sep 20	Christian McCaffrey	23	61.0	-62%
Sep 13	Ashton Jeanty	102	37.7	+171%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%8.7 yds	3%13.7 yds	10%15.4 yds
Short	31%5.7 yds	16%6.6 yds	29%6.9 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

MIA defense

MIA defense: Throws MIA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%15.7 yds#3	5%18.6 yds#6	8%13.0 yds#10
Short	30%6.8 yds#4	16%7.8 yds#12	36%6.2 yds#7

Throws MIA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 3 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	40%8.0 yds	60%5.0 yds	0%

Last 3 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	A.J. Brown WR	3	6.7	20	22.1%
2	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
3	DeMario Douglas WR	7	4.9	34	16.2%
4	Hunter Henry TE	7	4.4	31	15.3%
5	Romeo Doubs WR	6	4.0	24	13.3%
6	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	7	3.4	24	11.3%
7	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
8	Eli Raridon TE	6	2.7	16	8.8%
9	Efton Chism III WR	6	2.5	15	8.1%
10	Lan Larison RB	1	2.0	2	6.5%

Game log · 11 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 18.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-22	7	@ CHI	13	Under	14.5	6 (11%)
2026-10-18	6	vs NYJ	57	Over	17.5	12 (18%)
2026-10-11	5	vs LV	52	Over	—	15 (20%)
2026-10-04	4	@ BUF	0	Under	—	2 (3%)
2026-09-27	3	@ JAX	18	Under	—	8 (13%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PIT	0	Under	—	4 (7%)
2026-09-09	1	@ SEA	11	Under	—	8 (11%)
2026-01-04	18	@ LA	13	Under	—	14 (25%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CIN	2	Under	—	2 (4%)
2025-12-21	16	vs ATL	32	Over	—	9 (16%)
2025-12-14	15	@ HOU	11	Under	—	5 (8%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 18.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: Caesars, updated 9m ago.