NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Jalen Nailor WR

LV vs NYJ · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

17.5 Rec Yds O -111U -113

Hit rate · All 50%19/38 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 15.0
Graph avg: 25.4
Graph median: 17.00–124
Over the close: 38%8/21

2026 per game

Targets4.0▲+0.9

Rec1.6▼-0.1

Rec Yds15.0▼-11.1

Rec TD0.0▼-0.2

Snaps42.4▲+4.0

Snap %63.2%▼-2.2

17.5

2024

21

Sep 08
54

Sep 15
31

Sep 22
31

Sep 29
76

Oct 20
16

Oct 24
7

Nov 03
11

Nov 10
0

Nov 17
5

Nov 24
18

Dec 01
5

Dec 16
5

Dec 22
81

Dec 29
53

Jan 05
33

Jan 13
2025

28

Sep 08
31

Sep 14
37

Sep 21
2

Sep 28
27

Oct 05
37

Oct 19
0

Oct 23
16

Nov 02
124

Nov 09
16

Nov 16
0

Nov 23
0

Nov 30
30

Dec 07
47

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
0

Dec 25
49

Jan 04
2026

27

Sep 13
9

Sep 20
16

Sep 27
9

Oct 18
14

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 17.5

Home 67% 12/18 · avg 35.9
Away 35% 7/20 · avg 16.0
vs NYJ No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 7.5 71% 27/38
O 12.5 63% 24/38
O 17.5 Today 50% 19/38
O 22.5 45% 17/38
O 27.5 40% 15/38

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs NYJ

What NYJ allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds139.0#16
Receptions11.1#17
Targets17.6#21
Yds/Target7.9#16
Rec TD1.3#4

WRs vs NYJ · 2026

Each main WR who faced NYJ this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-16.1

Avg diff %-19%

Beat their average21% (3/14)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Caleb Douglas	70	56.5	+24%
Oct 25	Malik Washington	27	52.4	-48%
Oct 18	Romeo Doubs	42	43.8	-4%
Oct 18	A.J. Brown	27	37.0	-27%
Oct 11	Denzel Boston	46	54.3	-15%
Oct 11	KC Concepcion	5	51.7	-90%
Oct 04	Luther Burden III	63	71.3	-12%
Oct 04	Rome Odunze	94	47.8	+97%
Sep 27	Amon-Ra St. Brown	19	101.2	-81%
Sep 27	Jameson Williams	49	63.6	-23%
Sep 20	Christian Watson	41	92.3	-56%
Sep 20	Matthew Golden	58	80.3	-28%
Sep 13	Carnell Tate	38	62.5	-39%
Sep 13	Wan'Dale Robinson	38	27.8	+37%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LV offense

LV offense: Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%15.9 yds	4%10.1 yds	6%4.3 yds
Short	31%5.6 yds	21%6.8 yds	30%6.8 yds

Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NYJ defense

NYJ defense: Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.7 yds#20	4%15.4 yds#15	7%13.4 yds#7
Short	31%5.5 yds#21	19%7.5 yds#15	32%6.1 yds#8

Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%20.0 yds	6%0.0 yds	26%5.4 yds
Short	18%3.3 yds	18%10.0 yds	29%5.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LV targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Brock Bowers TE	5	10.2	51	27.1%
2	Tre Tucker WR	7	6.7	47	18.2%
3	Ashton Jeanty RB	7	6.3	44	17.5%
4	Michael Mayer TE	7	5.3	37	14.5%
5	Jalen Nailor WR	5	4.0	20	11.9%
6	Jack Bech WR	2	3.0	6	10.3%
7	Cody White WR	7	2.7	19	7.4%
8	Malik Benson WR	7	1.3	9	3.9%
9	Ian Thomas TE	4	1.2	5	3.2%
10	Deven Thompkins WR	1	1.0	1	2.8%

Game log · 38 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 17.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	vs LA	14	Under	15.5	51 (75%)
2026-10-18	6	vs BUF	9	Under	20.5	42 (64%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NO	16	Under	24.5	40 (57%)
2026-09-20	2	@ LAC	9	Under	32.5	38 (60%)
2026-09-13	1	vs MIA	27	Over	37.5	41 (60%)
2026-01-04	18	vs GB	49	Over	49.5	50 (75%)
2025-12-25	17	vs DET	0	Under	18.5	23 (43%)
2025-12-21	16	@ NYG	0	Under	0.5	38 (62%)
2025-12-14	15	@ DAL	47	Over	43.5	28 (51%)
2025-12-07	14	vs WAS	30	Over	30.5	37 (58%)
2025-11-30	13	@ SEA	0	Under	10.5	36 (69%)
2025-11-23	12	@ GB	0	Under	—	20 (45%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CHI	16	Under	0.5	33 (60%)
2025-11-09	10	vs BAL	124	Over	80.5	44 (68%)
2025-11-02	9	@ DET	16	Under	10.5	33 (53%)
2025-10-23	8	@ LAC	0	Under	10.5	34 (69%)
2025-10-19	7	vs PHI	37	Over	15.5	41 (59%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CLE	27	Over	20.5	42 (65%)
2025-09-28	4	@ PIT	2	Under	0.5	48 (63%)
2025-09-21	3	vs CIN	37	Over	33.5	50 (83%)
2025-09-14	2	vs ATL	31	Over	35.5	47 (100%)
2025-09-08	1	@ CHI	28	Over	30.5	49 (88%)
2025-01-13	19 (P)	@ LA	33	Over	—	53 (72%)
2025-01-05	18	@ DET	53	Over	—	32 (49%)
2024-12-29	17	vs GB	81	Over	—	38 (53%)
2024-12-22	16	@ SEA	5	Under	—	35 (53%)
2024-12-16	15	vs CHI	5	Under	—	41 (53%)
2024-12-01	13	vs ARI	18	Over	—	31 (58%)
2024-11-24	12	@ CHI	5	Under	—	28 (39%)
2024-11-17	11	@ TEN	0	Under	—	32 (44%)
2024-11-10	10	@ JAX	11	Under	—	42 (50%)
2024-11-03	9	vs IND	7	Under	—	20 (27%)
2024-10-24	8	@ LA	16	Under	—	21 (42%)
2024-10-20	7	vs DET	76	Over	—	44 (73%)
2024-09-29	4	@ GB	31	Over	—	14 (21%)
2024-09-22	3	vs HOU	31	Over	—	54 (86%)
2024-09-15	2	vs SF	54	Over	—	50 (93%)
2024-09-08	1	@ NYG	21	Over	—	26 (47%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 14.5PrizePicks 17.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 8m ago.