NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Dylan Sampson RB

CLE vs PIT · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

11.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 10 60%6/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 22.5
Graph avg: 16.9
Graph median: 21.0-4–45
Over the close: 43%3/7

2026 per game

Carries3.0▼-1.3

Rush Yds22.5▲+10.8

Rush TD0.0+0.0

Targets1.5▼-1.2

Rec1.5▼-0.7

Rec Yds16.0▼-2.1

Snaps32.0▲+15.4

Snap %46.0%▲+19.5

11.5

2025

0

Oct 26
-4

Nov 09
19

Nov 16
23

Nov 23
23

Nov 30
4

Dec 07
27

Dec 28
32

Jan 04
2026

0

Sep 13
45

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 11.5

Home 50% 4/8 · avg 13.5
Away 44% 4/9 · avg 12.4
vs PIT 100% 2/2 · avg 19.5

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 70% 7/10
O 6.5 60% 6/10
O 11.5 Today 60% 6/10
O 16.5 60% 6/10
O 21.5 50% 5/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs PIT

What PIT allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds87.4#21
Yds/Carry4.0#21
Rush TD0.4#31
Targets5.7#13
Rec Yds30.7#22

RBs vs PIT · 2026

Each main RB who faced PIT this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-15.8

Avg diff %-22%

Beat their average43% (3/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Kendre Miller	6	30.6	-80%
Oct 18	Bucky Irving	46	85.3	-46%
Oct 11	Jonathan Taylor	45	90.3	-50%
Oct 01	Quinshon Judkins	53	52.8	+0%
Sep 27	Chase Brown	61	44.8	+36%
Sep 20	Rhamondre Stevenson	43	40.3	+7%
Sep 13	Bijan Robinson	83	103.5	-20%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CLE offense

CLE offense: Share of CLE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.6 yds	4%8.0 yds	5%9.6 yds
Short	38%6.2 yds	17%7.1 yds	30%6.1 yds

Share of CLE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PIT defense

PIT defense: Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%17.0 yds#2	4%12.8 yds#23	5%16.5 yds#1
Short	36%5.6 yds#18	16%6.6 yds#24	30%4.7 yds#29

Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	45%5.7 yds	21%10.7 yds	34%8.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CLE targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	KC Concepcion WR	7	6.4	45	21.8%
2	Denzel Boston WR	7	6.0	42	20.1%
3	Harold Fannin Jr. TE	7	5.6	39	18.4%
4	Jerry Jeudy WR	6	3.8	23	13.3%
5	Quinshon Judkins RB	6	3.5	21	11.5%
6	Isaiah Bond WR	3	3.0	9	9.4%
7	Raheim Sanders RB	5	2.4	12	8.6%
8	Jaleel McLaughlin RB	5	1.2	6	4.5%
9	Dylan Sampson RB	2	1.5	3	4.3%
10	Blake Whiteheart TE	4	1.0	4	3.8%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 11.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ TEN	45	Over	9.5	32 (46%)
2026-09-13	1	@ JAX	0	Under	6.5	—
2026-01-04	18	@ CIN	32	Over	39.5	26 (50%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PIT	27	Over	16.5	18 (35%)
2025-12-07	14	vs TEN	4	Under	4.5	26 (38%)
2025-11-30	13	vs SF	23	Over	10.5	12 (19%)
2025-11-23	12	@ LV	23	Over	—	19 (37%)
2025-11-16	11	vs BAL	19	Over	—	6 (11%)
2025-11-09	10	@ NYJ	-4	Under	7.5	22 (30%)
2025-10-26	8	@ NE	0	Under	—	25 (46%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 9.5PrizePicks 11.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: FanDuel, updated 7m ago.