NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Lamar Jackson QB

BAL vs BUF · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

25.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 65%13/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 36.0
Graph avg: 33.8
Graph median: 34.57–81
Over the close: 29%5/17

2026 per game

Pass Yds241.8▲+45.7

Att24.0▲+0.8

Cmp%70.8%▲+7.3

Pass TD1.5▼-0.1

INT0.2▼-0.3

Rush Yds36.0▲+9.2

Snaps55.8▲+1.8

Snap %88.0%▼-4.2

25.5

2024

63

Jan 04
81

Jan 11
39

Jan 19
2025

70

Sep 07
13

Sep 14
35

Sep 22
48

Sep 28
14

Oct 30
36

Nov 09
10

Nov 16
11

Nov 23
27

Nov 27
43

Dec 07
26

Dec 14
7

Dec 21
9

Jan 04
2026

40

Sep 13
34

Sep 20
50

Sep 27
20

Oct 04
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 25.5

Home 65% 11/17 · avg 35.9
Away 79% 15/19 · avg 48.3
vs BUF 100% 3/3 · avg 54.3

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 15.5 70% 14/20
O 20.5 65% 13/20
O 25.5 Today 65% 13/20
O 30.5 55% 11/20
O 35.5 45% 9/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs BUF

What BUF allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds244.8#10
Yds/Att6.7#21
Cmp%61.3%#26
Pass TD2.3#2
Pass Att36.7#4

QBs vs BUF · 2026

Each main QB who faced BUF this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+3.4

Avg diff %+40%

Beat their average50% (3/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Kirk Cousins	0	0.7	-100%
Oct 12	Matthew Stafford	0	3.0	-100%
Oct 04	Drake Maye	54	26.2	+106%
Sep 27	Justin Herbert	17	30.2	-44%
Sep 17	Jared Goff	7	1.6	+338%
Sep 13	C.J. Stroud	15	10.8	+38%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BAL offense

BAL offense: Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%18.2 yds	5%8.2 yds	5%11.9 yds
Short	25%7.7 yds	23%8.9 yds	34%6.2 yds

Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BUF defense

BUF defense: Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.3 yds#12	5%12.4 yds#24	9%9.2 yds#24
Short	31%5.4 yds#24	17%6.4 yds#28	32%5.5 yds#15

Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%19.1 yds	4%11.0 yds	9%11.5 yds
Short	24%7.2 yds	27%10.4 yds	26%5.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of BAL targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Zay Flowers WR	6	8.8	53	31.1%
2	Mark Andrews TE	7	5.3	37	19.4%
3	Ja'Kobi Lane WR	3	4.3	13	14.4%
4	Rashod Bateman WR	7	3.7	26	13.1%
5	Justice Hill RB	7	2.4	17	8.0%
6	Chris Moore WR	3	2.0	6	7.9%
7	Josh Cuevas TE	5	2.2	11	7.3%
8	Elijah Sarratt WR	1	2.0	2	6.9%
9	Devontez Walker WR	5	1.8	9	6.3%
10	Derrick Henry RB	7	1.7	12	6.0%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 25.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs TEN	20	Under	31.5	33 (52%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DAL	50	Over	38.5	64 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs NO	34	Over	38.5	58 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ IND	40	Over	38.5	68 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ PIT	9	Under	11.5	51 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs NE	7	Under	24.5	26 (47%)
2025-12-14	15	@ CIN	26	Over	32.5	36 (88%)
2025-12-07	14	vs PIT	43	Over	27.5	80 (100%)
2025-11-27	13	vs CIN	27	Over	27.5	60 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYJ	11	Under	33.5	63 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ CLE	10	Under	15.5	61 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIN	36	Over	35.5	70 (100%)
2025-10-30	9	@ MIA	14	Under	37.5	56 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	@ KC	48	Over	64.5	38 (69%)
2025-09-22	3	vs DET	35	Over	35.5	57 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CLE	13	Under	14.5	53 (95%)
2025-09-07	1	@ BUF	70	Over	60.5	51 (100%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	@ BUF	39	Over	—	59 (100%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	vs PIT	81	Over	—	74 (100%)
2025-01-04	18	vs CLE	63	Over	—	67 (96%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 24.5PrizePicks 25.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: FanDuel, updated 9m ago.