NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

D'Andre Swift RB

CHI vs SEA · Mon Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ET

59.5 Rush Yds

Hit rate · Last 10 40%4/10 Odds imply —

Season avg: 68.0
Graph avg: 64.6
Graph median: 56.040–124
Over the close: 50%5/10

2026 per game

Carries16.6▲+2.4

Rush Yds68.0▲+0.4

Rush TD1.0▲+0.4

Targets3.6▲+0.8

Rec3.1▲+1.1

Rec Yds21.7▲+3.0

Snaps45.7▲+6.3

Snap %61.6%▲+3.9

59.5

2025

40

Jan 04
54

Jan 10
76

Jan 18
2026

124

Sep 13
45

Sep 20
84

Sep 28
58

Oct 04
43

Oct 11
44

Oct 18
78

Oct 22
?

Nov 03

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 59.5

Home 44% 10/23 · avg 61.6
Away 47% 9/19 · avg 65.1
vs SEA 0% 0/1 · avg 53.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 49.5 60% 6/10
O 54.5 50% 5/10
O 59.5 Today 40% 4/10
O 64.5 40% 4/10
O 69.5 40% 4/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs SEA

What SEA allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds69.7#29
Yds/Carry3.5#31
Rush TD0.4#30
Targets6.7#6
Rec Yds39.5#5

RBs vs SEA · 2026

Each main RB who faced SEA this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-16.4

Avg diff %-14%

Beat their average29% (2/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Kenneth Walker III	36	133.0	-73%
Oct 15	J.K. Dobbins	41	42.0	-2%
Oct 11	Christian McCaffrey	68	53.5	+27%
Oct 04	Omarion Hampton	45	48.8	-8%
Sep 27	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	36	50.8	-29%
Sep 20	Jeremiyah Love	29	54.0	-46%
Sep 09	Rhamondre Stevenson	51	39.0	+31%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CHI offense

CHI offense: Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%14.0 yds	5%12.5 yds	9%6.8 yds
Short	22%5.8 yds	22%7.4 yds	36%6.1 yds

Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

SEA defense

SEA defense: Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.8 yds#26	2%16.8 yds#10	10%9.2 yds#23
Short	30%5.5 yds#19	17%5.2 yds#31	32%4.6 yds#32

Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	28%8.9 yds	12%7.8 yds	59%5.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CHI targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Luther Burden III WR	7	6.7	47	21.0%
2	Colston Loveland TE	7	6.0	42	18.9%
3	Rome Odunze WR	7	5.4	38	16.6%
4	Kalif Raymond WR	7	4.4	31	14.4%
5	D'Andre Swift RB	7	3.6	25	11.0%
6	Cole Kmet TE	7	2.0	14	6.5%
7	Roschon Johnson RB	5	2.0	10	5.4%
8	Kyle Monangai RB	4	1.2	5	4.4%
9	Sam Roush TE	5	1.0	5	3.2%
10	Zavion Thomas WR	6	0.8	5	2.4%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 59.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-22	7	vs NE	78	Over	60.5	59 (86%)
2026-10-18	6	@ ATL	44	Under	63.5	45 (58%)
2026-10-11	5	@ GB	43	Under	82.5	40 (58%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NYJ	58	Under	63.5	33 (35%)
2026-09-28	3	vs PHI	84	Over	62.5	50 (69%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIN	45	Under	60.5	50 (68%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CAR	124	Over	59.5	43 (57%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs LA	76	Over	54.5	50 (62%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs GB	54	Under	48.5	39 (50%)
2026-01-04	18	vs DET	40	Under	40.5	32 (58%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 59.5PrizePicks 62.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: Underdog, updated 8m ago.