NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Caleb Williams QB

CHI vs SEA · Mon Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ET

21.5 Rush Yds O -108U -117

Hit rate · Last 10 40%4/10 Odds imply 49.1% Over

Season avg: 32.0
Graph avg: 25.0
Graph median: 19.01–65
Over the close: 70%7/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds255.0▲+15.0

Att31.0▼-3.6

Cmp%71.0%▲+13.7

Pass TD1.2▼-0.4

INT0.2▼-0.4

Rush Yds32.0▲+8.4

Snaps71.2▲+2.7

Snap %96.5%▼-2.7

21.5

2025

13

Dec 14
30

Dec 20
18

Dec 28
1

Jan 04
20

Jan 10
40

Jan 18
2026

65

Sep 13
42

Sep 20
3

Oct 18
18

Oct 22
?

Nov 03

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 21.5

Home 52% 11/21 · avg 29.6
Away 47% 9/19 · avg 23.3
vs SEA 100% 1/1 · avg 37.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 11.5 80% 8/10
O 16.5 70% 7/10
O 21.5 Today 40% 4/10
O 26.5 40% 4/10
O 31.5 30% 3/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs SEA

What SEA allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds191.9#30
Yds/Att6.0#31
Cmp%62.0%#23
Pass TD1.3#19
Pass Att32.1#19

QBs vs SEA · 2026

Each main QB who faced SEA this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.8

Avg diff %-14%

Beat their average43% (3/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Patrick Mahomes	14	11.4	+23%
Oct 15	Bo Nix	2	18.0	-89%
Oct 11	Brock Purdy	6	25.8	-77%
Oct 04	Justin Herbert	40	25.6	+56%
Sep 27	Marcus Mariota	11	19.0	-42%
Sep 20	Jacoby Brissett	7	12.2	-42%
Sep 09	Drake Maye	47	27.3	+72%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CHI offense

CHI offense: Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%14.0 yds	5%12.5 yds	9%6.8 yds
Short	22%5.8 yds	22%7.4 yds	36%6.1 yds

Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

SEA defense

SEA defense: Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.8 yds#26	2%16.8 yds#10	10%9.2 yds#23
Short	30%5.5 yds#19	17%5.2 yds#31	32%4.6 yds#32

Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%14.4 yds	6%15.2 yds	9%7.1 yds
Short	22%6.3 yds	18%5.9 yds	37%6.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of CHI targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Luther Burden III WR	7	6.7	47	21.0%
2	Colston Loveland TE	7	6.0	42	18.9%
3	Rome Odunze WR	7	5.4	38	16.6%
4	Kalif Raymond WR	7	4.4	31	14.4%
5	D'Andre Swift RB	7	3.6	25	11.0%
6	Cole Kmet TE	7	2.0	14	6.5%
7	Roschon Johnson RB	5	2.0	10	5.4%
8	Kyle Monangai RB	4	1.2	5	4.4%
9	Sam Roush TE	5	1.0	5	3.2%
10	Zavion Thomas WR	6	0.8	5	2.4%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 21.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-22	7	vs NE	18	Under	17.5	69 (100%)
2026-10-18	6	@ ATL	3	Under	18.5	77 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIN	42	Over	24.5	64 (86%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CAR	65	Over	19.5	75 (100%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs LA	40	Over	20.5	81 (100%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs GB	20	Under	18.5	78 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs DET	1	Under	2.5	55 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ SF	18	Under	10.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-20	16	vs GB	30	Over	17.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs CLE	13	Under	18.5	66 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 19.5PrizePicks 20.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 6m ago.