NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Kenneth Walker III RB

KC vs DEN · Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET

87.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 10 70%7/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 116.8
Graph avg: 111.1
Graph median: 116.536–177
Over the close: 70%7/10

2026 per game

Carries20.0▲+5.7

Rush Yds116.8▲+49.8

Rush TD1.0▲+0.6

Targets4.5▲+2.1

Rec3.0▲+1.0

Rec Yds19.3+0.0

Snaps46.7▲+15.7

Snap %74.3%▲+25.0

87.5

2025

97

Jan 03
116

Jan 17
62

Jan 25
135

Feb 08
2026

173

Sep 14
117

Sep 20
70

Sep 27
177

Oct 04
128

Oct 18
36

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 87.5

Home 30% 6/20 · avg 68.3
Away 24% 4/17 · avg 73.4
vs DEN 100% 2/2 · avg 138.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 67.5 80% 8/10
O 77.5 70% 7/10
O 87.5 Today 70% 7/10
O 97.5 60% 6/10
O 107.5 60% 6/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs DEN

What DEN allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds95.1#16
Yds/Carry4.2#16
Rush TD0.5#27
Targets5.9#11
Rec Yds30.7#20

RBs vs DEN · 2026

Each main RB who faced DEN this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+10.0

Avg diff %+10%

Beat their average57% (4/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Bam Knight	48	37.3	+29%
Oct 15	Emanuel Wilson	52	58.5	-11%
Oct 11	Omarion Hampton	33	51.2	-36%
Oct 04	Christian McCaffrey	52	56.2	-7%
Sep 27	Kyren Williams	88	67.3	+31%
Sep 20	Bhayshul Tuten	65	64.6	+1%
Sep 14	Kenneth Walker III	173	105.6	+64%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.2 yds	5%11.2 yds	6%11.5 yds
Short	28%5.5 yds	15%6.5 yds	41%5.7 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DEN defense

DEN defense: Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.2 yds#31	3%11.3 yds#27	7%6.7 yds#28
Short	27%6.7 yds#6	16%7.8 yds#11	39%4.7 yds#31

Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	45%7.7 yds	14%3.0 yds	40%5.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	6	5.8	35	19.6%
3	Travis Kelce TE	6	5.8	35	18.6%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	6	4.5	27	14.3%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	6	2.3	14	8.4%
7	Andrew Armstrong WR	2	2.0	4	6.6%
8	Jalen Royals WR	6	1.8	11	6.1%
9	Emmett Johnson RB	6	1.8	11	6.0%
10	Cyrus Allen WR	4	1.5	6	5.2%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 87.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ SEA	36	Under	79.5	39 (74%)
2026-10-18	6	vs LAC	128	Over	94.5	45 (74%)
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	177	Over	86.5	45 (75%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	70	Under	82.5	38 (73%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	117	Over	83.5	66 (82%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	173	Over	64.5	47 (68%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	@ NE	135	Over	70.5	47 (65%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs LA	62	Under	80.5	42 (63%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs SF	116	Over	58.5	33 (62%)
2026-01-03	18	@ SF	97	Over	48.5	29 (42%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 88.5Underdog 89.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: FanDuel, updated 9m ago.