NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Patrick Mahomes QB

KC vs DEN · Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET

12.5 Rush Yds O -116U -108

Hit rate · Last 10 80%8/10 Odds imply 50.8% Over

Season avg: 11.8
Graph avg: 20.5
Graph median: 16.50–59
Over the close: 40%4/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds245.7▼-10.5

Att31.8▼-4.0

Cmp%64.9%▲+2.2

Pass TD1.5▼-0.1

INT0.7▼-0.1

Rush Yds11.8▼-18.3

Snaps62.5▼-4.2

Snap %100.0%▲+2.6

12.5

2025

30

Nov 23
30

Nov 27
59

Dec 07
15

Dec 14
2026

23

Sep 14
17

Sep 20
1

Sep 27
0

Oct 04
16

Oct 18
14

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 12.5

Home 81% 17/21 · avg 24.5
Away 56% 10/18 · avg 20.4
vs DEN 67% 2/3 · avg 15.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 80% 8/10
O 7.5 80% 8/10
O 12.5 Today 80% 8/10
O 17.5 40% 4/10
O 22.5 40% 4/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs DEN

What DEN allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds215.7#25
Yds/Att5.9#32
Cmp%55.4%#32
Pass TD1.1#28
Pass Att36.8#3

QBs vs DEN · 2026

Each main QB who faced DEN this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+10.7

Avg diff %+279%

Beat their average86% (6/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Jacoby Brissett	16	10.7	+50%
Oct 15	Sam Darnold	19	6.6	+188%
Oct 11	Justin Herbert	54	22.8	+137%
Oct 04	Brock Purdy	29	22.0	+32%
Sep 27	Matthew Stafford	13	0.8	+1460%
Sep 20	Trevor Lawrence	6	12.8	-53%
Sep 14	Patrick Mahomes	23	9.6	+140%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.2 yds	5%11.2 yds	6%11.5 yds
Short	28%5.5 yds	15%6.5 yds	41%5.7 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DEN defense

DEN defense: Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.2 yds#31	3%11.3 yds#27	7%6.7 yds#28
Short	27%6.7 yds#6	16%7.8 yds#11	39%4.7 yds#31

Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%12.5 yds	5%12.4 yds	8%11.7 yds
Short	25%6.6 yds	18%6.4 yds	39%6.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	6	5.8	35	19.6%
3	Travis Kelce TE	6	5.8	35	18.6%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	6	4.5	27	14.3%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	6	2.3	14	8.4%
7	Andrew Armstrong WR	2	2.0	4	6.6%
8	Jalen Royals WR	6	1.8	11	6.1%
9	Emmett Johnson RB	6	1.8	11	6.0%
10	Cyrus Allen WR	4	1.5	6	5.2%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 12.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ SEA	14	Over	17.5	53 (100%)
2026-10-18	6	vs LAC	16	Over	14.5	61 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	0	Under	15.5	60 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	1	Under	15.5	52 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	17	Over	18.5	80 (100%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	23	Over	14.5	69 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LAC	15	Over	16.5	56 (92%)
2025-12-07	14	vs HOU	59	Over	60.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-27	13	@ DAL	30	Over	25.5	66 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs IND	30	Over	10.5	96 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 12.5Underdog 14.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.