NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Patrick Mahomes QB

KC vs DEN · Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET

12.5 Rush Yds O -116U -108

Hit rate · All 69%27/39 Odds imply 50.8% Over

Season avg: 11.8
Graph avg: 22.6
Graph median: 17.00–66
Over the close: 35%7/20

2026 per game

Pass Yds245.7▼-10.5

Att31.8▼-4.0

Cmp%64.9%▲+2.2

Pass TD1.5▼-0.1

INT0.7▼-0.1

Rush Yds11.8▼-18.3

Snaps62.5▼-4.2

Snap %100.0%▲+2.6

12.5

2024

3

Sep 05
29

Sep 15
17

Sep 22
12

Sep 29
22

Oct 07
39

Oct 20
17

Oct 27
9

Nov 04
19

Nov 10
0

Nov 17
60

Nov 24
4

Nov 29
17

Dec 08
14

Dec 15
33

Dec 21
12

Dec 25
14

Jan 18
43

Jan 26
25

Feb 09
2025

57

Sep 05
66

Sep 14
2

Sep 21
5

Sep 28
60

Oct 06
32

Oct 12
28

Oct 19
30

Oct 27
5

Nov 02
3

Nov 16
30

Nov 23
30

Nov 27
59

Dec 07
15

Dec 14
2026

23

Sep 14
17

Sep 20
1

Sep 27
0

Oct 04
16

Oct 18
14

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 12.5

Home 81% 17/21 · avg 24.5
Away 56% 10/18 · avg 20.4
vs DEN 67% 2/3 · avg 15.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 90% 35/39
O 7.5 77% 30/39
O 12.5 Today 69% 27/39
O 17.5 46% 18/39
O 22.5 41% 16/39

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs DEN

What DEN allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds215.7#25
Yds/Att5.9#32
Cmp%55.4%#32
Pass TD1.1#28
Pass Att36.8#3

QBs vs DEN · 2026

Each main QB who faced DEN this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+10.7

Avg diff %+279%

Beat their average86% (6/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Jacoby Brissett	16	10.7	+50%
Oct 15	Sam Darnold	19	6.6	+188%
Oct 11	Justin Herbert	54	22.8	+137%
Oct 04	Brock Purdy	29	22.0	+32%
Sep 27	Matthew Stafford	13	0.8	+1460%
Sep 20	Trevor Lawrence	6	12.8	-53%
Sep 14	Patrick Mahomes	23	9.6	+140%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.2 yds	5%11.2 yds	6%11.5 yds
Short	28%5.5 yds	15%6.5 yds	41%5.7 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DEN defense

DEN defense: Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.2 yds#31	3%11.3 yds#27	7%6.7 yds#28
Short	27%6.7 yds#6	16%7.8 yds#11	39%4.7 yds#31

Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%12.5 yds	5%12.4 yds	8%11.7 yds
Short	25%6.6 yds	18%6.4 yds	39%6.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	6	5.8	35	19.6%
3	Travis Kelce TE	6	5.8	35	18.6%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	6	4.5	27	14.3%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	6	2.3	14	8.4%
7	Andrew Armstrong WR	2	2.0	4	6.6%
8	Jalen Royals WR	6	1.8	11	6.1%
9	Emmett Johnson RB	6	1.8	11	6.0%
10	Cyrus Allen WR	4	1.5	6	5.2%

Game log · 39 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 12.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ SEA	14	Over	17.5	53 (100%)
2026-10-18	6	vs LAC	16	Over	14.5	61 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	0	Under	15.5	60 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	1	Under	15.5	52 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	17	Over	18.5	80 (100%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	23	Over	14.5	69 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LAC	15	Over	16.5	56 (92%)
2025-12-07	14	vs HOU	59	Over	60.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-27	13	@ DAL	30	Over	25.5	66 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs IND	30	Over	10.5	96 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ DEN	3	Under	10.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ BUF	5	Under	5.5	60 (100%)
2025-10-27	8	vs WAS	30	Over	30.5	69 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LV	28	Over	22.5	65 (80%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DET	32	Over	40.5	64 (100%)
2025-10-06	5	@ JAX	60	Over	55.5	64 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs BAL	5	Under	6.5	67 (92%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NYG	2	Under	10.5	72 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs PHI	66	Over	70.5	60 (100%)
2025-09-05	1	@ LAC	57	Over	17.5	61 (100%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	@ PHI	25	Over	—	56 (100%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	vs BUF	43	Over	—	66 (100%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	14	Over	—	51 (100%)
2024-12-25	17	@ PIT	12	Under	—	62 (100%)
2024-12-21	16	vs HOU	33	Over	—	74 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	@ CLE	14	Over	—	67 (89%)
2024-12-08	14	vs LAC	17	Over	—	69 (100%)
2024-11-29	13	vs LV	4	Under	—	71 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	@ CAR	60	Over	—	74 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	@ BUF	0	Under	—	55 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	vs DEN	19	Over	—	68 (100%)
2024-11-04	9	vs TB	9	Under	—	85 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	@ LV	17	Over	—	72 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	@ SF	39	Over	—	70 (100%)
2024-10-07	5	vs NO	22	Over	—	84 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	@ LAC	12	Under	—	62 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ ATL	17	Over	—	74 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	vs CIN	29	Over	—	65 (100%)
2024-09-05	1	vs BAL	3	Under	—	54 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 12.5Underdog 14.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.