NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Dak Prescott QB

DAL vs ARI · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

8.5 Rush Yds O -112U -112

Hit rate · All 41%13/32 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 11.6
Graph avg: 9.8
Graph median: 7.0-4–34
Over the close: 33%7/21

2026 per game

Pass Yds264.4▼-3.3

Att39.0▲+3.7

Cmp%65.2%▼-2.1

Pass TD1.9▲+0.1

INT0.7▲+0.1

Rush Yds11.6▲+1.2

Snaps67.3▲+0.5

Snap %100.0%▲+4.9

8.5

2024

3

Sep 08
12

Sep 15
7

Sep 22
-1

Sep 26
3

Oct 06
1

Oct 13
-1

Oct 27
30

Nov 03
2025

3

Sep 04
17

Sep 14
0

Sep 21
2

Sep 28
28

Oct 05
-1

Oct 12
7

Oct 19
31

Oct 26
34

Nov 03
-4

Nov 17
9

Nov 23
-2

Nov 27
14

Dec 04
2

Dec 14
14

Dec 21
24

Dec 25
-1

Jan 04
2026

14

Sep 13
26

Sep 20
19

Sep 27
7

Oct 04
0

Oct 08
7

Oct 18
8

Oct 26
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 8.5

Home 50% 7/14 · avg 10.6
Away 33% 6/18 · avg 9.1
vs ARI 100% 1/1 · avg 34.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 3.5 56% 18/32
O 8.5 Today 41% 13/32
O 13.5 34% 11/32
O 18.5 22% 7/32

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds249.1#8
Yds/Att8.0#3
Cmp%64.4%#13
Pass TD2.5#1
Pass Att31.2#25

QBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main QB who faced ARI this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+11.0

Avg diff %+148%

Beat their average50% (3/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Bo Nix	73	6.2	+1084%
Oct 18	Matthew Stafford	0	3.0	-100%
Oct 11	Jared Goff	1	2.8	-64%
Oct 04	Jameis Winston	0	10.0	-100%
Sep 27	Brock Purdy	34	21.2	+61%
Sep 13	Justin Herbert	29	27.8	+4%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DAL offense

DAL offense: Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.6 yds	4%23.2 yds	6%10.5 yds
Short	32%6.6 yds	14%5.1 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.4 yds#17	3%13.8 yds#18	11%11.2 yds#13
Short	30%6.9 yds#3	18%7.8 yds#13	30%6.9 yds#3

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.5 yds	4%23.2 yds	6%11.0 yds
Short	32%6.6 yds	14%5.2 yds	35%5.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of DAL targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	CeeDee Lamb WR	7	11.6	81	30.8%
2	George Pickens WR	7	8.3	58	22.1%
3	Ryan Flournoy WR	7	5.7	40	15.1%
4	Jake Ferguson TE	7	3.6	25	9.3%
5	Javonte Williams RB	7	3.1	22	8.5%
6	Brevyn Spann-Ford TE	7	1.9	13	4.7%
7	Jonathan Mingo WR	5	1.6	8	4.3%
8	KaVontae Turpin WR	6	1.2	7	3.0%
9	Luke Schoonmaker TE	3	1.0	3	2.7%
10	Tyler Goodson RB	4	1.2	5	2.6%

Game log · 32 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 8.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-26	7	@ PHI	8	Under	9.5	68 (100%)
2026-10-18	6	@ GB	7	Under	9.5	78 (100%)
2026-10-08	5	vs TB	0	Under	9.5	60 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ HOU	7	Under	10.5	78 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs BAL	19	Over	12.5	74 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs WAS	26	Over	8.5	55 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ NYG	14	Over	7.5	58 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ NYG	-1	Under	—	28 (51%)
2025-12-25	17	@ WAS	24	Over	7.5	92 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LAC	14	Over	15.5	53 (91%)
2025-12-14	15	vs MIN	2	Under	2.5	70 (100%)
2025-12-04	14	@ DET	14	Over	13.5	82 (100%)
2025-11-27	13	vs KC	-2	Under	5.5	72 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PHI	9	Over	10.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-17	11	@ LV	-4	Under	5.5	67 (100%)
2025-11-03	9	vs ARI	34	Over	—	67 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	@ DEN	31	Over	31.5	65 (88%)
2025-10-19	7	vs WAS	7	Under	10.5	67 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ CAR	-1	Under	5.5	55 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ NYJ	28	Over	4.5	60 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs GB	2	Under	—	69 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CHI	0	Under	5.5	64 (86%)
2025-09-14	2	vs NYG	17	Over	3.5	89 (100%)
2025-09-04	1	@ PHI	3	Under	6.5	61 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	@ ATL	30	Over	—	47 (61%)
2024-10-27	8	@ SF	-1	Under	—	62 (100%)
2024-10-13	6	vs DET	1	Under	—	51 (74%)
2024-10-06	5	@ PIT	3	Under	—	76 (100%)
2024-09-26	4	@ NYG	-1	Under	—	56 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	vs BAL	7	Under	—	80 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	vs NO	12	Over	—	67 (96%)
2024-09-08	1	@ CLE	3	Under	—	62 (98%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 8.5Underdog 9.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 10m ago.