NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Xavier Worthy WR

KC vs DEN · Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET

2.5 Receptions

Hit rate · All 72%28/39 Odds imply —

Season avg: 4.0
Graph avg: 3.7
Graph median: 3.00–8
Over the close: 35%7/20

2026 per game

Targets5.8▲+0.6

Rec4.0▲+1.0

Rec Yds36.2▼-1.8

Rec TD0.2▲+0.1

Snaps51.2▲+5.1

Snap %82.0%▲+11.4

2.5

2024

2

Sep 05
2

Sep 15
2

Sep 22
3

Sep 29
3

Oct 07
3

Oct 20
4

Oct 27
0

Nov 04
1

Nov 10
4

Nov 17
4

Nov 24
5

Nov 29
5

Dec 08
6

Dec 15
7

Dec 21
8

Dec 25
5

Jan 18
6

Jan 26
8

Feb 09
2025

0

Sep 05
5

Sep 28
6

Oct 06
2

Oct 12
3

Oct 19
5

Oct 27
3

Nov 02
3

Nov 16
4

Nov 23
4

Nov 27
3

Dec 07
2

Dec 14
2

Dec 21
0

Dec 25
2026

3

Sep 14
5

Sep 20
2

Sep 27
4

Oct 04
7

Oct 18
3

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 67% 14/21 · avg 3.6
Away 78% 14/18 · avg 3.8
vs DEN 50% 2/4 · avg 1.8

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 92% 36/39
O 1.5 90% 35/39
O 2.5 Today 72% 28/39
O 3.5 49% 19/39
O 4.5 33% 13/39

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs DEN

What DEN allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds123.1#27
Receptions10.5#22
Targets19.8#8
Yds/Target6.2#32
Rec TD0.5#29

WRs vs DEN · 2026

Each main WR who faced DEN this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.5

Avg diff %+25%

Beat their average50% (7/14)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Michael Wilson	4	5.5	-27%
Oct 25	Kendrick Bourne	3	4.4	-32%
Oct 15	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	12	7.7	+57%
Oct 15	Cooper Kupp	5	2.2	+131%
Oct 11	Tre Harris	2	3.2	-38%
Oct 11	Derius Davis	0	0.2	-100%
Oct 04	Mike Evans	5	4.4	+14%
Oct 04	Deebo Samuel Sr.	5	2.8	+82%
Sep 27	Davante Adams	7	4.6	+52%
Sep 27	Konata Mumpfield	4	1.0	+300%
Sep 20	Jakobi Meyers	1	3.8	-74%
Sep 20	Parker Washington	7	3.8	+84%
Sep 14	Rashee Rice	2	5.5	-64%
Sep 14	Xavier Worthy	3	4.2	-29%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.2 yds	5%11.2 yds	6%11.5 yds
Short	28%5.5 yds	15%6.5 yds	41%5.7 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DEN defense

DEN defense: Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.2 yds#31	3%11.3 yds#27	7%6.7 yds#28
Short	27%6.7 yds#6	16%7.8 yds#11	39%4.7 yds#31

Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%5.8 yds	4%20.5 yds	16%4.9 yds
Short	22%6.7 yds	6%11.7 yds	43%6.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	6	5.8	35	19.6%
3	Travis Kelce TE	6	5.8	35	18.6%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	6	4.5	27	14.3%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	6	2.3	14	8.4%
7	Andrew Armstrong WR	2	2.0	4	6.6%
8	Jalen Royals WR	6	1.8	11	6.1%
9	Emmett Johnson RB	6	1.8	11	6.0%
10	Cyrus Allen WR	4	1.5	6	5.2%

Game log · 39 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 2.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ SEA	3	Over	4.5	46 (87%)
2026-10-18	6	vs LAC	7	Over	4.5	51 (84%)
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	4	Over	3.5	45 (75%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	2	Under	3.5	43 (83%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	5	Over	3.5	69 (86%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	3	Over	3.5	53 (77%)
2025-12-25	17	vs DEN	0	Under	0.5	34 (79%)
2025-12-21	16	@ TEN	2	Under	3.5	38 (84%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LAC	2	Under	2.5	41 (67%)
2025-12-07	14	vs HOU	3	Over	3.5	49 (77%)
2025-11-27	13	@ DAL	4	Over	3.5	58 (88%)
2025-11-23	12	vs IND	4	Over	3.5	74 (77%)
2025-11-16	11	@ DEN	3	Over	3.5	53 (76%)
2025-11-02	9	@ BUF	3	Over	2.5	50 (83%)
2025-10-27	8	vs WAS	5	Over	4.5	58 (84%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LV	3	Over	3.5	48 (59%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DET	2	Under	2.5	47 (73%)
2025-10-06	5	@ JAX	6	Over	6.5	49 (77%)
2025-09-28	4	vs BAL	5	Over	5.5	43 (59%)
2025-09-05	1	@ LAC	0	Under	5.5	3 (5%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	@ PHI	8	Over	—	51 (91%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	vs BUF	6	Over	—	54 (82%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	5	Over	—	42 (82%)
2024-12-25	17	@ PIT	8	Over	—	53 (85%)
2024-12-21	16	vs HOU	7	Over	—	59 (80%)
2024-12-15	15	@ CLE	6	Over	—	61 (81%)
2024-12-08	14	vs LAC	5	Over	—	57 (83%)
2024-11-29	13	vs LV	5	Over	—	42 (59%)
2024-11-24	12	@ CAR	4	Over	—	47 (64%)
2024-11-17	11	@ BUF	4	Over	—	32 (58%)
2024-11-10	10	vs DEN	1	Under	—	51 (75%)
2024-11-04	9	vs TB	0	Under	—	58 (68%)
2024-10-27	8	@ LV	4	Over	—	38 (53%)
2024-10-20	7	@ SF	3	Over	—	42 (60%)
2024-10-07	5	vs NO	3	Over	—	56 (67%)
2024-09-29	4	@ LAC	3	Over	—	45 (73%)
2024-09-22	3	@ ATL	2	Under	—	37 (50%)
2024-09-15	2	vs CIN	2	Under	—	44 (68%)
2024-09-05	1	vs BAL	2	Under	—	34 (63%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 2.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: Underdog, updated 5m ago.