NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Ladd McConkey WR

LAC vs LAR · Sun Nov 1 · 4:05 PM ET

3.5 Receptions O -157U +123

Hit rate · Last 20 55%11/20 Odds imply 57.7% Over

Season avg: 2.6
Graph avg: 3.5
Graph median: 4.00–9
Over the close: 20%4/20

2026 per game

Targets3.6▼-2.9

Rec2.6▼-1.5

Rec Yds40.0▼-8.3

Rec TD0.2▼-0.2

Snaps30.2▼-22.2

Snap %45.8%▼-32.3

3.5

2025

4

Sep 21
1

Sep 28
5

Oct 05
7

Oct 12
9

Oct 19
6

Oct 23
4

Nov 02
4

Nov 09
3

Nov 16
4

Nov 30
1

Dec 08
2

Dec 14
4

Dec 21
1

Dec 27
3

Jan 11
2026

5

Sep 13
3

Sep 20
4

Sep 27
0

Oct 04
1

Oct 18
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 79% 15/19 · avg 4.7
Away 60% 12/20 · avg 4.2
vs LAR No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 75% 15/20
O 2.5 70% 14/20
O 3.5 Today 55% 11/20
O 4.5 25% 5/20
O 5.5 15% 3/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds135.1#22
Receptions10.1#26
Targets18.3#18
Yds/Target7.4#22
Rec TD1.3#3

WRs vs LAR · 2026

Each main WR who faced LAR this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.5

Avg diff %-3%

Beat their average36% (5/14)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Tre Tucker	5	4.0	+25%
Oct 25	Jalen Nailor	2	1.5	+33%
Oct 18	Michael Wilson	4	5.5	-27%
Oct 18	Kendrick Bourne	5	4.0	+25%
Oct 12	Khalil Shakir	3	3.8	-21%
Oct 12	Keon Coleman	1	3.6	-72%
Oct 04	Makai Lemon	3	3.7	-18%
Oct 04	Dontayvion Wicks	3	3.2	-6%
Sep 27	Jaylen Waddle	2	4.0	-50%
Sep 27	Pat Bryant	2	2.3	-14%
Sep 21	Malik Nabers	1	7.8	-87%
Sep 21	Malachi Fields	2	2.3	-14%
Sep 10	Mike Evans	6	4.2	+43%
Sep 10	Deebo Samuel Sr.	6	2.5	+140%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAC offense

LAC offense: Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%14.4 yds	1%14.2 yds	8%7.0 yds
Short	26%5.9 yds	18%6.5 yds	39%4.3 yds

Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%8.4 yds#25	6%13.4 yds#20	8%5.0 yds#31
Short	34%5.7 yds#14	16%5.7 yds#29	33%6.4 yds#5

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	18%9.9 yds	8%13.7 yds	10%13.5 yds
Short	13%8.2 yds	16%6.7 yds	34%7.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LAC targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR	1	9.0	9	25.0%
2	Tre Harris WR	5	5.0	25	18.0%
3	David Njoku TE	2	4.0	8	15.0%
4	Quentin Johnston WR	5	4.4	22	14.9%
5	Ladd McConkey WR	5	3.6	18	12.4%
6	Charlie Kolar TE	4	3.2	13	11.8%
7	Brenen Thompson WR	1	3.0	3	11.5%
8	Oronde Gadsden II TE	6	3.5	21	11.4%
9	Keaton Mitchell RB	6	2.5	15	9.0%
10	Kimani Vidal RB	5	2.4	12	7.9%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 3.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-18	6	@ KC	1	Under	3.5	8 (12%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SEA	0	Under	4.5	24 (34%)
2026-09-27	3	@ BUF	4	Over	4.5	61 (88%)
2026-09-20	2	vs LV	3	Under	3.5	31 (46%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ARI	5	Over	4.5	27 (49%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ NE	3	Under	2.5	53 (88%)
2025-12-27	17	vs HOU	1	Under	1.5	56 (89%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DAL	4	Over	4.5	48 (75%)
2025-12-14	15	@ KC	2	Under	2.5	49 (74%)
2025-12-08	14	vs PHI	1	Under	1.5	64 (86%)
2025-11-30	13	vs LV	4	Over	4.5	51 (76%)
2025-11-16	11	@ JAX	3	Under	5.5	30 (62%)
2025-11-09	10	vs PIT	4	Over	5.5	52 (71%)
2025-11-02	9	@ TEN	4	Over	4.5	45 (69%)
2025-10-23	8	vs MIN	6	Over	6.5	42 (58%)
2025-10-19	7	vs IND	9	Over	9.5	67 (88%)
2025-10-12	6	@ MIA	7	Over	5.5	44 (69%)
2025-10-05	5	vs WAS	5	Over	5.5	53 (79%)
2025-09-28	4	@ NYG	1	Under	1.5	58 (92%)
2025-09-21	3	vs DEN	4	Over	3.5	80 (93%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 11m ago.