NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Travis Kelce TE

KC vs DEN · Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O -107U -120

Hit rate · Last 20 45%9/20 Odds imply 48.7% Over

Season avg: 4.0
Graph avg: 4.5
Graph median: 4.01–9
Over the close: 25%5/20

2026 per game

Targets5.8▼-0.5

Rec4.0▼-0.5

Rec Yds57.2▲+7.1

Rec TD0.3+0.0

Snaps48.7▼-4.4

Snap %77.8%▼-4.0

4.5

2025

5

Sep 28
7

Oct 06
6

Oct 12
3

Oct 19
6

Oct 27
4

Nov 02
9

Nov 16
4

Nov 23
5

Nov 27
1

Dec 07
7

Dec 14
1

Dec 21
5

Dec 25
3

Jan 04
2026

3

Sep 14
9

Sep 20
2

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
4

Oct 18
4

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 59% 13/22 · avg 5.4
Away 35% 7/20 · avg 4.6
vs DEN 75% 3/4 · avg 6.2

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 80% 16/20
O 3.5 65% 13/20
O 4.5 Today 45% 9/20
O 5.5 30% 6/20
O 6.5 20% 4/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs DEN

What DEN allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds61.9#10
Receptions5.8#11
Targets8.2#7
Yds/Target7.5#12
Rec TD0.5#14

TEs vs DEN · 2026

Each main TE who faced DEN this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.1

Avg diff %-7%

Beat their average43% (3/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Trey McBride	10	8.2	+22%
Oct 15	AJ Barner	3	2.7	+13%
Oct 11	Oronde Gadsden II	0	2.4	-100%
Oct 04	George Kittle	4	5.0	-20%
Sep 27	Tyler Higbee	8	3.6	+122%
Sep 20	Brenton Strange	2	4.8	-58%
Sep 14	Travis Kelce	3	4.2	-29%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.2 yds	5%11.2 yds	6%11.5 yds
Short	28%5.5 yds	15%6.5 yds	41%5.7 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DEN defense

DEN defense: Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.2 yds#31	3%11.3 yds#27	7%6.7 yds#28
Short	27%6.7 yds#6	16%7.8 yds#11	39%4.7 yds#31

Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%0.0 yds	2%48.0 yds	2%0.0 yds
Short	25%7.7 yds	23%7.6 yds	42%7.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	6	5.8	35	19.6%
3	Travis Kelce TE	6	5.8	35	18.6%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	6	4.5	27	14.3%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	6	2.3	14	8.4%
7	Andrew Armstrong WR	2	2.0	4	6.6%
8	Jalen Royals WR	6	1.8	11	6.1%
9	Emmett Johnson RB	6	1.8	11	6.0%
10	Cyrus Allen WR	4	1.5	6	5.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ SEA	4	Under	4.5	44 (83%)
2026-10-18	6	vs LAC	4	Under	4.5	40 (66%)
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	2	Under	4.5	50 (83%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	2	Under	4.5	41 (79%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	9	Over	3.5	68 (85%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	3	Under	4.5	49 (71%)
2026-01-04	18	@ LV	3	Under	3.5	51 (80%)
2025-12-25	17	vs DEN	5	Over	2.5	42 (98%)
2025-12-21	16	@ TEN	1	Under	4.5	35 (78%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LAC	7	Over	4.5	60 (98%)
2025-12-07	14	vs HOU	1	Under	1.5	58 (91%)
2025-11-27	13	@ DAL	5	Over	5.5	60 (91%)
2025-11-23	12	vs IND	4	Under	4.5	84 (88%)
2025-11-16	11	@ DEN	9	Over	9.5	55 (79%)
2025-11-02	9	@ BUF	4	Under	4.5	55 (92%)
2025-10-27	8	vs WAS	6	Over	6.5	58 (84%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LV	3	Under	3.5	50 (62%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DET	6	Over	4.5	45 (70%)
2025-10-06	5	@ JAX	7	Over	5.5	51 (80%)
2025-09-28	4	vs BAL	5	Over	5.5	48 (66%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 4.5Underdog 4.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 10m ago.