NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Ryan Flournoy WR

DAL vs ARI · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

3.5 Receptions O +103U -131

Hit rate · Last 20 40%8/20 Odds imply 46.5% Over

Season avg: 3.9
Graph avg: 3.2
Graph median: 3.00–9
Over the close: 53%8/15

2026 per game

Targets5.7▲+2.0

Rec3.9▲+1.2

Rec Yds43.4▲+11.8

Rec TD0.1▼-0.1

Snaps50.3▲+18.4

Snap %74.3%▲+26.6

3.5

2025

2

Sep 28
6

Oct 05
3

Oct 12
0

Oct 19
1

Oct 26
2

Nov 03
1

Nov 17
0

Nov 23
3

Nov 27
9

Dec 04
4

Dec 14
2

Dec 21
5

Jan 04
2026

2

Sep 13
5

Sep 20
2

Sep 27
4

Oct 04
3

Oct 08
7

Oct 18
4

Oct 26
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 12% 2/17 · avg 1.8
Away 43% 6/14 · avg 3.3
vs ARI 0% 0/1 · avg 2.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 80% 16/20
O 2.5 55% 11/20
O 3.5 Today 40% 8/20
O 4.5 25% 5/20
O 5.5 15% 3/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds138.5#18
Receptions9.9#27
Targets15.9#29
Yds/Target8.7#9
Rec TD1.3#2

WRs vs ARI · 2026

Each main WR who faced ARI this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.9

Avg diff %-10%

Beat their average29% (4/14)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Jaylen Waddle	4	3.7	+9%
Oct 25	Courtland Sutton	3	2.2	+38%
Oct 18	Puka Nacua	6	9.8	-38%
Oct 18	Davante Adams	3	5.4	-44%
Oct 11	Amon-Ra St. Brown	6	8.0	-25%
Oct 11	Jameson Williams	2	4.2	-52%
Oct 04	Malik Nabers	6	7.0	-14%
Oct 04	Malachi Fields	2	2.3	-14%
Sep 27	Mike Evans	3	4.8	-37%
Sep 27	Deebo Samuel Sr.	0	4.0	-100%
Sep 20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	9	8.2	+10%
Sep 20	Cooper Kupp	2	2.7	-25%
Sep 13	Tre Harris	3	3.0	+0%
Sep 13	Ladd McConkey	5	2.0	+150%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DAL offense

DAL offense: Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.6 yds	4%23.2 yds	6%10.5 yds
Short	32%6.6 yds	14%5.1 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.4 yds#17	3%13.8 yds#18	11%11.2 yds#13
Short	30%6.9 yds#3	18%7.8 yds#13	30%6.9 yds#3

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%16.5 yds	6%16.0 yds	6%17.0 yds
Short	41%6.2 yds	15%4.9 yds	30%7.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DAL targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	CeeDee Lamb WR	7	11.6	81	30.8%
2	George Pickens WR	7	8.3	58	22.1%
3	Ryan Flournoy WR	7	5.7	40	15.1%
4	Jake Ferguson TE	7	3.6	25	9.3%
5	Javonte Williams RB	7	3.1	22	8.5%
6	Brevyn Spann-Ford TE	7	1.9	13	4.7%
7	Jonathan Mingo WR	5	1.6	8	4.3%
8	KaVontae Turpin WR	6	1.2	7	3.0%
9	Luke Schoonmaker TE	3	1.0	3	2.7%
10	Tyler Goodson RB	4	1.2	5	2.6%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 3.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-26	7	@ PHI	4	Over	3.5	53 (78%)
2026-10-18	6	@ GB	7	Over	3.5	68 (87%)
2026-10-08	5	vs TB	3	Under	3.5	41 (68%)
2026-10-04	4	@ HOU	4	Over	3.5	58 (74%)
2026-09-27	3	vs BAL	2	Under	3.5	49 (66%)
2026-09-20	2	vs WAS	5	Over	2.5	42 (76%)
2026-09-13	1	@ NYG	2	Under	2.5	41 (71%)
2026-01-04	18	@ NYG	5	Over	—	48 (87%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LAC	2	Under	2.5	23 (40%)
2025-12-14	15	vs MIN	4	Over	3.5	45 (64%)
2025-12-04	14	@ DET	9	Over	4.5	53 (65%)
2025-11-27	13	vs KC	3	Under	1.5	27 (38%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PHI	0	Under	1.5	33 (45%)
2025-11-17	11	@ LV	1	Under	1.5	29 (43%)
2025-11-03	9	vs ARI	2	Under	—	45 (67%)
2025-10-26	8	@ DEN	1	Under	—	34 (46%)
2025-10-19	7	vs WAS	0	Under	—	19 (28%)
2025-10-12	6	@ CAR	3	Under	3.5	38 (69%)
2025-10-05	5	@ NYJ	6	Over	1.5	34 (57%)
2025-09-28	4	vs GB	2	Under	—	16 (23%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.