NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Emeka Egbuka WR

TB vs ATL · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O +102U -130

Hit rate · All 35%8/23 Odds imply 46.7% Over

Season avg: 4.7
Graph avg: 4.0
Graph median: 4.01–7
Over the close: 35%8/23

2026 per game

Targets8.2▲+0.7

Rec4.7▲+1.0

Rec Yds40.0▼-15.2

Rec TD0.3-0.0

Snaps57.2▲+5.0

Snap %85.8%▲+8.2

4.5

2025

4

Sep 07
4

Sep 15
6

Sep 21
4

Sep 28
7

Oct 05
2

Oct 12
4

Oct 20
3

Oct 26
6

Nov 09
5

Nov 16
3

Nov 23
4

Nov 30
2

Dec 07
4

Dec 11
1

Dec 21
3

Dec 28
1

Jan 03
2026

5

Sep 13
3

Sep 20
5

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
6

Oct 08
7

Oct 18
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 33% 4/12 · avg 3.8
Away 36% 4/11 · avg 4.1
vs ATL 0% 0/2 · avg 4.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 78% 18/23
O 3.5 61% 14/23
O 4.5 Today 35% 8/23
O 5.5 22% 5/23
O 6.5 9% 2/23

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ATL

What ATL allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds152.1#12
Receptions12.4#8
Targets20.1#6
Yds/Target7.6#21
Rec TD0.7#22

WRs vs ATL · 2026

Each main WR who faced ATL this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.1

Avg diff %+36%

Beat their average71% (10/14)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Jordan Watkins	3	1.5	+100%
Oct 25	Brandin Cooks	1	0.7	+50%
Oct 18	Luther Burden III	8	4.5	+78%
Oct 18	Kalif Raymond	2	4.0	-50%
Oct 11	Zay Flowers	8	6.4	+25%
Oct 11	Rashod Bateman	5	2.2	+131%
Oct 05	Chris Olave	8	6.8	+17%
Oct 05	Devaughn Vele	6	4.5	+33%
Sep 24	Matthew Golden	5	5.2	-3%
Sep 24	Christian Watson	7	4.5	+56%
Sep 20	Tetairoa McMillan	5	6.2	-19%
Sep 20	Jalen Coker	8	4.2	+88%
Sep 13	DK Metcalf	4	4.7	-14%
Sep 13	Roman Wilson	3	2.8	+9%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TB offense

TB offense: Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.9 yds	4%13.4 yds	6%8.5 yds
Short	34%5.1 yds	14%7.2 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ATL defense

ATL defense: Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.6 yds#27	3%19.0 yds#4	8%9.4 yds#22
Short	32%6.4 yds#8	14%6.6 yds#22	33%5.3 yds#19

Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%3.0 yds	6%10.0 yds	6%10.8 yds
Short	32%5.4 yds	17%7.4 yds	29%3.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TB targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Emeka Egbuka WR	6	8.2	49	25.6%
2	Chris Godwin Jr. WR	7	4.9	34	19.9%
3	Cade Otton TE	7	4.3	30	15.3%
4	Ted Hurst III WR	6	3.8	23	12.7%
5	Bucky Irving RB	7	3.3	23	12.4%
6	Tez Johnson WR	7	2.1	15	8.4%
7	Kenny Gainwell RB	7	2.4	17	8.0%
8	Payne Durham TE	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Jalen McMillan WR	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Kameron Johnson WR	7	0.3	2	1.1%

Game log · 23 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-18	6	vs PIT	7	Over	3.5	64 (86%)
2026-10-08	5	@ DAL	6	Over	3.5	64 (89%)
2026-10-04	4	vs GB	2	Under	3.5	59 (94%)
2026-09-27	3	vs MIN	5	Over	4.5	51 (74%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CLE	3	Under	4.5	56 (86%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CIN	5	Over	4.5	49 (86%)
2026-01-03	18	vs CAR	1	Under	1.5	39 (58%)
2025-12-28	17	@ MIA	3	Under	3.5	39 (58%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CAR	1	Under	1.5	36 (56%)
2025-12-11	15	vs ATL	4	Under	3.5	44 (64%)
2025-12-07	14	vs NO	2	Under	4.5	65 (88%)
2025-11-30	13	vs ARI	4	Under	4.5	52 (85%)
2025-11-23	12	@ LA	3	Under	5.5	63 (90%)
2025-11-16	11	@ BUF	5	Over	6.5	66 (94%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NE	6	Over	6.5	61 (88%)
2025-10-26	8	@ NO	3	Under	5.5	51 (88%)
2025-10-20	7	@ DET	4	Under	3.5	52 (75%)
2025-10-12	6	vs SF	2	Under	5.5	28 (53%)
2025-10-05	5	@ SEA	7	Over	5.5	52 (85%)
2025-09-28	4	vs PHI	4	Under	4.5	64 (89%)
2025-09-21	3	vs NYJ	6	Over	3.5	46 (64%)
2025-09-15	2	@ HOU	4	Under	4.5	74 (92%)
2025-09-07	1	@ ATL	4	Under	5.5	54 (93%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 4.5Underdog 4.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 6m ago.