NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Ja'Kobi Lane WR

BAL vs BUF · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

2.5 Receptions O -123U -104

Hit rate · This season 67%2/3 Odds imply 52.0% Over

Season avg: 2.7
Graph avg: 2.7
Graph median: 3.01–4
Over the close: 67%2/3

2026 per game

Targets4.3

Rec2.7

Rec Yds25.3

Rec TD0.0

Snaps34.7

Snap %54.3%

2.5

2026

1

Sep 13
4

Oct 18
3

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 100% 1/1 · avg 3.0
Away 50% 1/2 · avg 2.5
vs BUF No games

Alt lines this season · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 100% 3/3
O 1.5 67% 2/3
O 2.5 Today 67% 2/3
O 3.5 33% 1/3
O 4.5 0% 0/3

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs BUF

What BUF allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds154.5#11
Receptions12.6#7
Targets20.4#4
Yds/Target7.6#20
Rec TD1.5#1

WRs vs BUF · 2026

Each main WR who faced BUF this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.3

Avg diff %+28%

Beat their average50% (6/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Tre Tucker	5	4.0	+25%
Oct 18	Jalen Nailor	1	1.8	-43%
Oct 12	Puka Nacua	17	7.0	+143%
Oct 12	Davante Adams	5	5.0	+0%
Oct 04	Mack Hollins	3	4.0	-25%
Oct 04	DeMario Douglas	2	3.5	-43%
Sep 27	Ladd McConkey	4	2.2	+78%
Sep 27	Tre Harris	6	2.2	+167%
Sep 17	Amon-Ra St. Brown	9	7.4	+22%
Sep 17	Jameson Williams	2	4.2	-52%
Sep 13	Nico Collins	7	4.2	+65%
Sep 13	Xavier Hutchinson	3	3.0	+0%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BAL offense

BAL offense: Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%18.2 yds	5%8.2 yds	5%11.9 yds
Short	25%7.7 yds	23%8.9 yds	34%6.2 yds

Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BUF defense

BUF defense: Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.3 yds#12	5%12.4 yds#24	9%9.2 yds#24
Short	31%5.4 yds#24	17%6.4 yds#28	32%5.5 yds#15

Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 3 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	15%0.0 yds	8%0.0 yds
Short	15%10.5 yds	15%11.0 yds	46%5.5 yds

Last 3 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BAL targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Zay Flowers WR	6	8.8	53	31.1%
2	Mark Andrews TE	7	5.3	37	19.4%
3	Ja'Kobi Lane WR	3	4.3	13	14.4%
4	Rashod Bateman WR	7	3.7	26	13.1%
5	Justice Hill RB	7	2.4	17	8.0%
6	Chris Moore WR	3	2.0	6	7.9%
7	Josh Cuevas TE	5	2.2	11	7.3%
8	Elijah Sarratt WR	1	2.0	2	6.9%
9	Devontez Walker WR	5	1.8	9	6.3%
10	Derrick Henry RB	7	1.7	12	6.0%

Game log · 3 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 2.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	vs CIN	3	Over	2.5	46 (69%)
2026-10-18	6	@ CLE	4	Over	1.5	31 (54%)
2026-09-13	1	@ IND	1	Under	1.5	27 (40%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 2.5Underdog 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.