NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

D'Andre Swift RB

CHI vs SEA · Mon Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ET

3.5 Receptions

Hit rate · All 26%11/42 Odds imply —

Season avg: 3.1
Graph avg: 2.4
Graph median: 2.00–7
Over the close: 50%12/24

2026 per game

Carries16.6▲+2.4

Rush Yds68.0▲+0.4

Rush TD1.0▲+0.4

Targets3.6▲+0.8

Rec3.1▲+1.1

Rec Yds21.7▲+3.0

Snaps45.7▲+6.3

Snap %61.6%▲+3.9

3.5

2024

2

Sep 22
7

Sep 29
2

Oct 06
4

Oct 13
0

Oct 27
6

Nov 03
1

Nov 10
2

Nov 17
3

Nov 24
2

Nov 28
1

Dec 08
1

Dec 16
3

Dec 22
4

Dec 26
0

Jan 05
2025

3

Sep 08
3

Sep 14
3

Sep 21
4

Sep 28
2

Oct 13
1

Oct 19
2

Oct 26
5

Nov 09
0

Nov 16
1

Nov 23
1

Nov 28
3

Dec 07
1

Dec 14
2

Dec 20
2

Dec 28
1

Jan 04
2

Jan 10
0

Jan 18
2026

1

Sep 13
5

Sep 20
2

Sep 28
2

Oct 04
4

Oct 11
4

Oct 18
4

Oct 22
?

Nov 03

Showing the latest 40 of 42 games.

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 26% 6/23 · avg 2.5
Away 26% 5/19 · avg 2.2
vs SEA 100% 1/1 · avg 4.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 67% 28/42
O 2.5 40% 17/42
O 3.5 Today 26% 11/42
O 4.5 10% 4/42
O 5.5 5% 2/42

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs SEA

What SEA allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds69.7#29
Yds/Carry3.5#31
Rush TD0.4#30
Targets6.7#6
Rec Yds39.5#5

RBs vs SEA · 2026

Each main RB who faced SEA this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.2

Avg diff %+35%

Beat their average43% (3/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Kenneth Walker III	4	2.8	+43%
Oct 15	RJ Harvey	3	4.4	-32%
Oct 11	Christian McCaffrey	3	5.2	-42%
Oct 04	Keaton Mitchell	5	1.4	+257%
Sep 27	Rachaad White	1	3.2	-69%
Sep 20	Tyler Allgeier	2	2.3	-14%
Sep 09	Rhamondre Stevenson	5	2.5	+100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CHI offense

CHI offense: Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%14.0 yds	5%12.5 yds	9%6.8 yds
Short	22%5.8 yds	22%7.4 yds	36%6.1 yds

Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

SEA defense

SEA defense: Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.8 yds#26	2%16.8 yds#10	10%9.2 yds#23
Short	30%5.5 yds#19	17%5.2 yds#31	32%4.6 yds#32

Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	28%8.9 yds	12%7.8 yds	59%5.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CHI targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Luther Burden III WR	7	6.7	47	21.0%
2	Colston Loveland TE	7	6.0	42	18.9%
3	Rome Odunze WR	7	5.4	38	16.6%
4	Kalif Raymond WR	7	4.4	31	14.4%
5	D'Andre Swift RB	7	3.6	25	11.0%
6	Cole Kmet TE	7	2.0	14	6.5%
7	Roschon Johnson RB	5	2.0	10	5.4%
8	Kyle Monangai RB	4	1.2	5	4.4%
9	Sam Roush TE	5	1.0	5	3.2%
10	Zavion Thomas WR	6	0.8	5	2.4%

Game log · 42 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 3.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-22	7	vs NE	4	Over	2.5	59 (86%)
2026-10-18	6	@ ATL	4	Over	2.5	45 (58%)
2026-10-11	5	@ GB	4	Over	2.5	40 (58%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NYJ	2	Under	2.5	33 (35%)
2026-09-28	3	vs PHI	2	Under	2.5	50 (69%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIN	5	Over	1.5	50 (68%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CAR	1	Under	2.5	43 (57%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs LA	0	Under	1.5	50 (62%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs GB	2	Under	1.5	39 (50%)
2026-01-04	18	vs DET	1	Under	1.5	32 (58%)
2025-12-28	17	@ SF	2	Under	1.5	39 (59%)
2025-12-20	16	vs GB	2	Under	1.5	35 (55%)
2025-12-14	15	vs CLE	1	Under	1.5	37 (56%)
2025-12-07	14	@ GB	3	Under	—	40 (57%)
2025-11-28	13	@ PHI	1	Under	1.5	46 (53%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PIT	1	Under	1.5	29 (45%)
2025-11-16	11	@ MIN	0	Under	0.5	43 (57%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NYG	5	Over	2.5	42 (62%)
2025-10-26	8	@ BAL	2	Under	2.5	31 (49%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NO	1	Under	2.5	37 (54%)
2025-10-13	6	@ WAS	2	Under	2.5	36 (56%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LV	4	Over	2.5	45 (66%)
2025-09-21	3	vs DAL	3	Under	2.5	36 (61%)
2025-09-14	2	@ DET	3	Under	2.5	39 (57%)
2025-09-08	1	vs MIN	3	Under	2.5	54 (81%)
2025-01-05	18	@ GB	0	Under	—	49 (79%)
2024-12-26	17	vs SEA	4	Over	—	40 (66%)
2024-12-22	16	vs DET	3	Under	—	47 (73%)
2024-12-16	15	@ MIN	1	Under	—	46 (69%)
2024-12-08	14	@ SF	1	Under	—	42 (79%)
2024-11-28	13	@ DET	2	Under	—	46 (69%)
2024-11-24	12	vs MIN	3	Under	—	42 (55%)
2024-11-17	11	vs GB	2	Under	—	41 (57%)
2024-11-10	10	vs NE	1	Under	—	40 (67%)
2024-11-03	9	@ ARI	6	Over	—	46 (62%)
2024-10-27	8	@ WAS	0	Under	—	46 (73%)
2024-10-13	6	vs JAX	4	Over	—	45 (68%)
2024-10-06	5	vs CAR	2	Under	—	50 (67%)
2024-09-29	4	vs LA	7	Over	—	38 (63%)
2024-09-22	3	@ IND	2	Under	—	48 (53%)
2024-09-15	2	@ HOU	4	Over	—	46 (66%)
2024-09-08	1	vs TEN	0	Under	—	39 (70%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: Underdog, updated 7m ago.