NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Bucky Irving RB

TB vs ATL · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

2.5 Receptions O -115U -111

Hit rate · All 46%16/35 Odds imply 50.4% Over

Season avg: 2.6
Graph avg: 2.8
Graph median: 2.00–7
Over the close: 53%9/17

2026 per game

Carries17.1▼-0.2

Rush Yds79.7▲+20.9

Rush TD0.6▲+0.5

Targets3.3▼-0.2

Rec2.6▼-0.4

Rec Yds11.1▼-16.6

Snaps42.6▲+0.5

Snap %64.0%▲+2.4

2.5

2024

2

Sep 08
0

Sep 15
3

Sep 22
1

Sep 29
2

Oct 03
2

Oct 13
3

Oct 21
7

Oct 27
3

Nov 04
3

Nov 10
6

Nov 24
3

Dec 01
1

Dec 08
2

Dec 15
3

Dec 22
4

Dec 29
2

Jan 05
2

Jan 12
2025

4

Sep 07
6

Sep 15
4

Sep 21
5

Sep 28
2

Nov 30
2

Dec 07
1

Dec 11
0

Dec 21
5

Dec 28
1

Jan 03
2026

7

Sep 13
4

Sep 20
2

Sep 27
0

Oct 04
2

Oct 08
2

Oct 18
1

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 40% 8/20 · avg 2.5
Away 53% 8/15 · avg 3.1
vs ATL 50% 2/4 · avg 3.5

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 91% 32/35
O 1.5 77% 27/35
O 2.5 Today 46% 16/35
O 3.5 29% 10/35
O 4.5 17% 6/35

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs ATL

What ATL allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds88.8#20
Yds/Carry4.4#13
Rush TD0.7#13
Targets7.1#3
Rec Yds35.3#8

RBs vs ATL · 2026

Each main RB who faced ATL this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.3

Avg diff %+10%

Beat their average71% (5/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Christian McCaffrey	6	4.7	+29%
Oct 18	D'Andre Swift	4	3.0	+33%
Oct 11	Justice Hill	2	1.8	+9%
Oct 05	Alvin Kamara	5	3.4	+47%
Sep 24	MarShawn Lloyd	2	1.7	+20%
Sep 20	Chuba Hubbard	2	2.6	-23%
Sep 13	Rico Dowdle	2	3.7	-45%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TB offense

TB offense: Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.9 yds	4%13.4 yds	6%8.5 yds
Short	34%5.1 yds	14%7.2 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ATL defense

ATL defense: Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.6 yds#27	3%19.0 yds#4	8%9.4 yds#22
Short	32%6.4 yds#8	14%6.6 yds#22	33%5.3 yds#19

Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	49%4.8 yds	8%4.3 yds	43%2.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TB targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Emeka Egbuka WR	6	8.2	49	25.6%
2	Chris Godwin Jr. WR	7	4.9	34	19.9%
3	Cade Otton TE	7	4.3	30	15.3%
4	Ted Hurst III WR	6	3.8	23	12.7%
5	Bucky Irving RB	7	3.3	23	12.4%
6	Tez Johnson WR	7	2.1	15	8.4%
7	Kenny Gainwell RB	7	2.4	17	8.0%
8	Payne Durham TE	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Jalen McMillan WR	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Kameron Johnson WR	7	0.3	2	1.1%

Game log · 35 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 2.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ CAR	1	Under	2.5	37 (59%)
2026-10-18	6	vs PIT	2	Under	1.5	63 (85%)
2026-10-08	5	@ DAL	2	Under	2.5	39 (54%)
2026-10-04	4	vs GB	0	Under	2.5	37 (59%)
2026-09-27	3	vs MIN	2	Under	2.5	36 (52%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CLE	4	Over	2.5	51 (78%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CIN	7	Over	2.5	35 (61%)
2026-01-03	18	vs CAR	1	Under	2.5	42 (63%)
2025-12-28	17	@ MIA	5	Over	2.5	36 (54%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CAR	0	Under	0.5	40 (62%)
2025-12-11	15	vs ATL	1	Under	1.5	37 (54%)
2025-12-07	14	vs NO	2	Under	2.5	36 (49%)
2025-11-30	13	vs ARI	2	Under	1.5	32 (52%)
2025-09-28	4	vs PHI	5	Over	3.5	44 (61%)
2025-09-21	3	vs NYJ	4	Over	3.5	53 (74%)
2025-09-15	2	@ HOU	6	Over	2.5	57 (71%)
2025-09-07	1	@ ATL	4	Over	3.5	44 (76%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	vs WAS	2	Under	—	33 (69%)
2025-01-05	18	vs NO	2	Under	—	48 (72%)
2024-12-29	17	vs CAR	4	Over	—	42 (55%)
2024-12-22	16	@ DAL	3	Over	—	41 (57%)
2024-12-15	15	@ LAC	2	Under	—	32 (44%)
2024-12-08	14	vs LV	1	Under	—	10 (16%)
2024-12-01	13	@ CAR	3	Over	—	43 (54%)
2024-11-24	12	@ NYG	6	Over	—	34 (52%)
2024-11-10	10	vs SF	3	Over	—	28 (46%)
2024-11-04	9	@ KC	3	Over	—	19 (35%)
2024-10-27	8	vs ATL	7	Over	—	31 (42%)
2024-10-21	7	vs BAL	3	Over	—	29 (35%)
2024-10-13	6	@ NO	2	Under	—	49 (64%)
2024-10-03	5	@ ATL	2	Under	—	23 (43%)
2024-09-29	4	vs PHI	1	Under	—	32 (42%)
2024-09-22	3	vs DEN	3	Over	—	18 (32%)
2024-09-15	2	@ DET	0	Under	—	17 (35%)
2024-09-08	1	vs WAS	2	Under	—	20 (31%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 2.5Underdog 2.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 10m ago.