NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

A.J. Brown WR

NE vs MIA · Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O +120U -154

Hit rate · Last 20 50%10/20 Odds imply 42.8% Over

Season avg: 3.0
Graph avg: 4.7
Graph median: 4.51–10
Over the close: 39%7/18

2026 per game

Targets6.7▼-1.3

Rec3.0▼-2.1

Rec Yds33.7▼-30.6

Rec TD0.0▼-0.4

Snaps44.0▼-13.2

Snap %70.3%▼-20.9

4.5

2024

3

Feb 09
2025

1

Sep 04
5

Sep 14
6

Sep 21
2

Sep 28
5

Oct 05
6

Oct 09
4

Oct 19
2

Nov 10
7

Nov 16
8

Nov 23
10

Nov 28
6

Dec 08
2

Dec 14
9

Dec 20
5

Dec 28
3

Jan 11
2026

3

Sep 09
3

Oct 18
3

Oct 22
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 47% 9/19 · avg 4.3
Away 71% 12/17 · avg 5.1
vs MIA No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 80% 16/20
O 3.5 55% 11/20
O 4.5 Today 50% 10/20
O 5.5 35% 7/20
O 6.5 20% 4/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs MIA

What MIA allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds138.0#19
Receptions10.4#24
Targets14.2#32
Yds/Target9.7#1
Rec TD0.8#20

WRs vs MIA · 2026

Each main WR who faced MIA this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.6

Avg diff %-33%

Beat their average25% (3/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Garrett Wilson	2	5.8	-66%
Oct 25	Adonai Mitchell	0	4.5	-100%
Oct 11	Tee Higgins	2	6.2	-68%
Oct 11	Ja'Marr Chase	6	5.2	+15%
Oct 04	Jordan Addison	4	2.2	+78%
Oct 04	Jauan Jennings	1	0.8	+33%
Sep 27	Xavier Worthy	2	4.4	-55%
Sep 27	Tyquan Thornton	2	3.0	-33%
Sep 20	Mike Evans	3	4.8	-37%
Sep 20	Deebo Samuel Sr.	3	3.2	-8%
Sep 13	Tre Tucker	2	4.5	-56%
Sep 13	Cody White	0	1.3	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%8.7 yds	3%13.7 yds	10%15.4 yds
Short	31%5.7 yds	16%6.6 yds	29%6.9 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

MIA defense

MIA defense: Throws MIA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%15.7 yds#3	5%18.6 yds#6	8%13.0 yds#10
Short	30%6.8 yds#4	16%7.8 yds#12	36%6.2 yds#7

Throws MIA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	13%8.5 yds	10%12.0 yds	10%8.4 yds
Short	29%7.3 yds	11%9.2 yds	28%6.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	A.J. Brown WR	3	6.7	20	22.1%
2	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
3	DeMario Douglas WR	7	4.9	34	16.2%
4	Hunter Henry TE	7	4.4	31	15.3%
5	Romeo Doubs WR	6	4.0	24	13.3%
6	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	7	3.4	24	11.3%
7	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
8	Eli Raridon TE	6	2.7	16	8.8%
9	Efton Chism III WR	6	2.5	15	8.1%
10	Lan Larison RB	1	2.0	2	6.5%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-22	7	@ CHI	3	Under	5.5	49 (91%)
2026-10-18	6	vs NYJ	3	Under	3.5	52 (76%)
2026-09-09	1	@ SEA	3	Under	5.5	31 (44%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs SF	3	Under	3.5	73 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ BUF	5	Over	5.5	48 (89%)
2025-12-20	16	@ WAS	9	Over	9.5	61 (87%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LV	2	Under	1.5	50 (72%)
2025-12-08	14	@ LAC	6	Over	5.5	69 (97%)
2025-11-28	13	vs CHI	10	Over	4.5	52 (96%)
2025-11-23	12	@ DAL	8	Over	6.5	59 (94%)
2025-11-16	11	vs DET	7	Over	6.5	67 (93%)
2025-11-10	10	@ GB	2	Under	—	49 (78%)
2025-10-19	7	@ MIN	4	Under	4.5	46 (92%)
2025-10-09	6	@ NYG	6	Over	7.5	55 (96%)
2025-10-05	5	vs DEN	5	Over	4.5	57 (93%)
2025-09-28	4	@ TB	2	Under	4.5	55 (96%)
2025-09-21	3	vs LA	6	Over	3.5	62 (93%)
2025-09-14	2	@ KC	5	Over	5.5	58 (97%)
2025-09-04	1	vs DAL	1	Under	4.5	55 (87%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	vs KC	3	Under	—	65 (88%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 4.5Underdog 4.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 8m ago.