NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

CeeDee Lamb WR

DAL vs ARI · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

6.5 Receptions O -119U -107

Hit rate · Last 20 45%9/20 Odds imply 51.2% Over

Season avg: 7.6
Graph avg: 6.4
Graph median: 6.01–17
Over the close: 50%9/18

2026 per game

Targets11.6▲+2.6

Rec7.6▲+1.8

Rec Yds93.0▲+10.2

Rec TD0.9▲+0.6

Snaps53.4▼-2.3

Snap %78.6%▲+0.8

6.5

2025

7

Sep 04
9

Sep 14
5

Oct 19
7

Oct 26
7

Nov 03
5

Nov 17
4

Nov 23
7

Nov 27
6

Dec 04
6

Dec 14
6

Dec 21
5

Dec 25
1

Jan 04
2026

5

Sep 13
8

Sep 20
7

Sep 27
17

Oct 04
2

Oct 08
9

Oct 18
5

Oct 26
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 6.5

Home 44% 8/18 · avg 5.8
Away 53% 9/17 · avg 7.3
vs ARI 100% 1/1 · avg 7.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 4.5 85% 17/20
O 5.5 60% 12/20
O 6.5 Today 45% 9/20
O 7.5 20% 4/20
O 8.5 15% 3/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds138.5#18
Receptions9.9#27
Targets15.9#29
Yds/Target8.7#9
Rec TD1.3#2

WRs vs ARI · 2026

Each main WR who faced ARI this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.9

Avg diff %-10%

Beat their average29% (4/14)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Jaylen Waddle	4	3.7	+9%
Oct 25	Courtland Sutton	3	2.2	+38%
Oct 18	Puka Nacua	6	9.8	-38%
Oct 18	Davante Adams	3	5.4	-44%
Oct 11	Amon-Ra St. Brown	6	8.0	-25%
Oct 11	Jameson Williams	2	4.2	-52%
Oct 04	Malik Nabers	6	7.0	-14%
Oct 04	Malachi Fields	2	2.3	-14%
Sep 27	Mike Evans	3	4.8	-37%
Sep 27	Deebo Samuel Sr.	0	4.0	-100%
Sep 20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	9	8.2	+10%
Sep 20	Cooper Kupp	2	2.7	-25%
Sep 13	Tre Harris	3	3.0	+0%
Sep 13	Ladd McConkey	5	2.0	+150%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DAL offense

DAL offense: Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.6 yds	4%23.2 yds	6%10.5 yds
Short	32%6.6 yds	14%5.1 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.4 yds#17	3%13.8 yds#18	11%11.2 yds#13
Short	30%6.9 yds#3	18%7.8 yds#13	30%6.9 yds#3

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%10.3 yds	5%7.8 yds	10%15.1 yds
Short	30%6.4 yds	11%5.4 yds	32%6.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DAL targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	CeeDee Lamb WR	7	11.6	81	30.8%
2	George Pickens WR	7	8.3	58	22.1%
3	Ryan Flournoy WR	7	5.7	40	15.1%
4	Jake Ferguson TE	7	3.6	25	9.3%
5	Javonte Williams RB	7	3.1	22	8.5%
6	Brevyn Spann-Ford TE	7	1.9	13	4.7%
7	Jonathan Mingo WR	5	1.6	8	4.3%
8	KaVontae Turpin WR	6	1.2	7	3.0%
9	Luke Schoonmaker TE	3	1.0	3	2.7%
10	Tyler Goodson RB	4	1.2	5	2.6%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 6.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-26	7	@ PHI	5	Under	6.5	55 (81%)
2026-10-18	6	@ GB	9	Over	6.5	69 (88%)
2026-10-08	5	vs TB	2	Under	6.5	34 (57%)
2026-10-04	4	@ HOU	17	Over	5.5	67 (86%)
2026-09-27	3	vs BAL	7	Over	6.5	61 (82%)
2026-09-20	2	vs WAS	8	Over	5.5	41 (75%)
2026-09-13	1	@ NYG	5	Under	6.5	47 (81%)
2026-01-04	18	@ NYG	1	Under	—	25 (45%)
2025-12-25	17	@ WAS	5	Under	5.5	80 (87%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LAC	6	Under	6.5	50 (86%)
2025-12-14	15	vs MIN	6	Under	5.5	60 (86%)
2025-12-04	14	@ DET	6	Under	6.5	38 (46%)
2025-11-27	13	vs KC	7	Over	7.5	58 (81%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PHI	4	Under	5.5	63 (85%)
2025-11-17	11	@ LV	5	Under	3.5	49 (73%)
2025-11-03	9	vs ARI	7	Over	—	59 (88%)
2025-10-26	8	@ DEN	7	Over	6.5	53 (72%)
2025-10-19	7	vs WAS	5	Under	6.5	52 (78%)
2025-09-14	2	vs NYG	9	Over	6.5	82 (92%)
2025-09-04	1	@ PHI	7	Over	6.5	56 (92%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 6.5Underdog 6.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 6m ago.