NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

DJ Moore WR

BUF vs BAL · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O +113U -144

Hit rate · Last 20 30%6/20 Odds imply 44.3% Over

Season avg: 3.0
Graph avg: 3.0
Graph median: 3.50–6
Over the close: 37%7/19

2026 per game

Targets5.0▼-0.3

Rec3.0▼-0.2

Rec Yds44.5▲+2.5

Rec TD0.2▼-0.2

Snaps33.0▼-25.1

Snap %52.5%▼-31.7

4.5

2025

4

Sep 28
3

Oct 13
3

Oct 19
4

Oct 26
4

Nov 02
0

Nov 09
1

Nov 16
5

Nov 23
2

Nov 28
1

Dec 07
4

Dec 14
5

Dec 20
1

Dec 28
1

Jan 04
6

Jan 10
5

Jan 18
2026

5

Sep 13
0

Sep 17
6

Sep 27
1

Oct 04
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 50% 11/22 · avg 4.1
Away 44% 8/18 · avg 4.5
vs BAL 0% 0/1 · avg 4.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 60% 12/20
O 3.5 50% 10/20
O 4.5 Today 30% 6/20
O 5.5 10% 2/20
O 6.5 0% 0/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs BAL

What BAL allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds195.6#1
Receptions14.0#1
Targets20.6#3
Yds/Target9.5#2
Rec TD0.7#23

WRs vs BAL · 2026

Each main WR who faced BAL this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.4

Avg diff %+7%

Beat their average57% (8/14)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Tee Higgins	6	5.4	+11%
Oct 25	Ja'Marr Chase	5	5.4	-7%
Oct 18	KC Concepcion	4	4.3	-8%
Oct 18	Denzel Boston	1	3.2	-68%
Oct 11	Drake London	7	5.2	+35%
Oct 11	Jahan Dotson	2	1.7	+20%
Oct 04	Wan'Dale Robinson	3	4.3	-31%
Oct 04	Carnell Tate	9	4.2	+116%
Sep 27	CeeDee Lamb	7	7.7	-9%
Sep 27	George Pickens	7	5.0	+40%
Sep 20	Chris Olave	8	6.8	+17%
Sep 20	Devaughn Vele	5	4.7	+7%
Sep 13	Keenan Allen	6	4.6	+30%
Sep 13	Josh Downs	2	4.0	-50%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%6.7 yds	6%18.4 yds	6%17.7 yds
Short	30%7.8 yds	15%8.3 yds	36%5.8 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BAL defense

BAL defense: Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.8 yds#5	5%18.7 yds#5	8%16.3 yds#2
Short	30%5.6 yds#17	17%6.7 yds#20	35%5.3 yds#20

Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	14%11.1 yds	10%11.2 yds	7%20.5 yds
Short	18%7.4 yds	21%5.2 yds	30%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	6	5.3	32	19.6%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	6	4.8	29	17.7%
4	Keon Coleman WR	6	4.0	24	14.5%
5	Ty Johnson RB	4	3.0	12	12.7%
6	Josh Palmer WR	4	2.8	11	9.5%
7	James Cook RB	6	2.3	14	8.5%
8	Skyler Bell WR	2	1.5	3	7.2%
9	Dawson Knox TE	6	1.7	10	6.9%
10	Ray Davis RB	5	0.6	3	2.4%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	1	Under	3.5	23 (39%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	6	Over	3.5	42 (64%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	0	Under	4.5	23 (31%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	5	Over	3.5	44 (76%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs LA	5	Over	2.5	58 (72%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs GB	6	Over	5.5	67 (86%)
2026-01-04	18	vs DET	1	Under	1.5	47 (85%)
2025-12-28	17	@ SF	1	Under	1.5	61 (92%)
2025-12-20	16	vs GB	5	Over	2.5	61 (95%)
2025-12-14	15	vs CLE	4	Under	4.5	58 (88%)
2025-12-07	14	@ GB	1	Under	—	58 (83%)
2025-11-28	13	@ PHI	2	Under	1.5	79 (91%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PIT	5	Over	5.5	50 (77%)
2025-11-16	11	@ MIN	1	Under	1.5	61 (81%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NYG	0	Under	1.5	42 (62%)
2025-11-02	9	@ CIN	4	Under	4.5	68 (85%)
2025-10-26	8	@ BAL	4	Under	3.5	53 (84%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NO	3	Under	3.5	60 (87%)
2025-10-13	6	@ WAS	3	Under	3.5	60 (94%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LV	4	Under	4.5	52 (76%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 4.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 10m ago.