NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Noah Gray TE

KC vs DEN · Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET

1.5 Receptions

Hit rate · Last 10 50%5/10 Odds imply —

Season avg: 2.0
Graph avg: 1.7
Graph median: 1.50–3
Over the close: 60%6/10

2026 per game

Targets2.3▼-0.3

Rec2.0▲+0.5

Rec Yds26.3▲+13.6

Rec TD0.0+0.0

Snaps36.5▲+1.8

Snap %58.8%▲+6.0

1.5

2025

1

Dec 07
0

Dec 21
1

Dec 25
3

Jan 04
2026

1

Sep 14
0

Sep 20
3

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
3

Oct 18
3

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 53% 10/19 · avg 1.8
Away 63% 12/19 · avg 2.2
vs DEN 40% 2/5 · avg 1.4

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 80% 8/10
O 1.5 Today 50% 5/10
O 2.5 40% 4/10
O 3.5 0% 0/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs DEN

What DEN allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds61.9#10
Receptions5.8#11
Targets8.2#7
Yds/Target7.5#12
Rec TD0.5#14

TEs vs DEN · 2026

Each main TE who faced DEN this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.1

Avg diff %-7%

Beat their average43% (3/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Trey McBride	10	8.2	+22%
Oct 15	AJ Barner	3	2.7	+13%
Oct 11	Oronde Gadsden II	0	2.4	-100%
Oct 04	George Kittle	4	5.0	-20%
Sep 27	Tyler Higbee	8	3.6	+122%
Sep 20	Brenton Strange	2	4.8	-58%
Sep 14	Travis Kelce	3	4.2	-29%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.2 yds	5%11.2 yds	6%11.5 yds
Short	28%5.5 yds	15%6.5 yds	41%5.7 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DEN defense

DEN defense: Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.2 yds#31	3%11.3 yds#27	7%6.7 yds#28
Short	27%6.7 yds#6	16%7.8 yds#11	39%4.7 yds#31

Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%24.0 yds	4%19.0 yds	7%9.5 yds
Short	30%4.9 yds	26%6.9 yds	30%10.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	6	5.8	35	19.6%
3	Travis Kelce TE	6	5.8	35	18.6%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	6	4.5	27	14.3%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	6	2.3	14	8.4%
7	Andrew Armstrong WR	2	2.0	4	6.6%
8	Jalen Royals WR	6	1.8	11	6.1%
9	Emmett Johnson RB	6	1.8	11	6.0%
10	Cyrus Allen WR	4	1.5	6	5.2%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ SEA	3	Over	1.5	28 (53%)
2026-10-18	6	vs LAC	3	Over	1.5	39 (64%)
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	2	Over	1.5	41 (68%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	3	Over	0.5	33 (63%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	0	Under	1.5	40 (50%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	1	Under	1.5	38 (55%)
2026-01-04	18	@ LV	3	Over	2.5	36 (56%)
2025-12-25	17	vs DEN	1	Under	1.5	21 (49%)
2025-12-21	16	@ TEN	0	Under	1.5	23 (51%)
2025-12-07	14	vs HOU	1	Under	0.5	29 (45%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 1.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: Underdog, updated 7m ago.