NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

George Pickens WR

DAL vs ARI · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O -112U -113

Hit rate · Last 5 60%3/5 Odds imply 49.9% Over

Season avg: 5.3
Graph avg: 5.6
Graph median: 6.02–9
Over the close: 60%3/5

2026 per game

Targets8.3▲+0.2

Rec5.3▼-0.2

Rec Yds69.3▼-14.8

Rec TD0.3▼-0.2

Snaps54.9▼-2.1

Snap %81.0%▼-0.1

4.5

2026

7

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
9

Oct 08
6

Oct 18
4

Oct 26
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 67% 12/18 · avg 5.5
Away 48% 10/21 · avg 4.5
vs ARI 100% 1/1 · avg 6.0

Alt lines last 5 · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 80% 4/5
O 3.5 80% 4/5
O 4.5 Today 60% 3/5
O 5.5 60% 3/5
O 6.5 40% 2/5

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds138.5#18
Receptions9.9#27
Targets15.9#29
Yds/Target8.7#9
Rec TD1.3#2

WRs vs ARI · 2026

Each main WR who faced ARI this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.9

Avg diff %-10%

Beat their average29% (4/14)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Jaylen Waddle	4	3.7	+9%
Oct 25	Courtland Sutton	3	2.2	+38%
Oct 18	Puka Nacua	6	9.8	-38%
Oct 18	Davante Adams	3	5.4	-44%
Oct 11	Amon-Ra St. Brown	6	8.0	-25%
Oct 11	Jameson Williams	2	4.2	-52%
Oct 04	Malik Nabers	6	7.0	-14%
Oct 04	Malachi Fields	2	2.3	-14%
Sep 27	Mike Evans	3	4.8	-37%
Sep 27	Deebo Samuel Sr.	0	4.0	-100%
Sep 20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	9	8.2	+10%
Sep 20	Cooper Kupp	2	2.7	-25%
Sep 13	Tre Harris	3	3.0	+0%
Sep 13	Ladd McConkey	5	2.0	+150%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DAL offense

DAL offense: Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.6 yds	4%23.2 yds	6%10.5 yds
Short	32%6.6 yds	14%5.1 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.4 yds#17	3%13.8 yds#18	11%11.2 yds#13
Short	30%6.9 yds#3	18%7.8 yds#13	30%6.9 yds#3

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	13%14.3 yds	3%37.0 yds	7%4.2 yds
Short	37%10.1 yds	9%8.6 yds	31%5.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DAL targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	CeeDee Lamb WR	7	11.6	81	30.8%
2	George Pickens WR	7	8.3	58	22.1%
3	Ryan Flournoy WR	7	5.7	40	15.1%
4	Jake Ferguson TE	7	3.6	25	9.3%
5	Javonte Williams RB	7	3.1	22	8.5%
6	Brevyn Spann-Ford TE	7	1.9	13	4.7%
7	Jonathan Mingo WR	5	1.6	8	4.3%
8	KaVontae Turpin WR	6	1.2	7	3.0%
9	Luke Schoonmaker TE	3	1.0	3	2.7%
10	Tyler Goodson RB	4	1.2	5	2.6%

Game log · 5 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-26	7	@ PHI	4	Under	4.5	41 (60%)
2026-10-18	6	@ GB	6	Over	5.5	69 (88%)
2026-10-08	5	vs TB	9	Over	4.5	53 (88%)
2026-10-04	4	@ HOU	2	Under	4.5	67 (86%)
2026-09-27	3	vs BAL	7	Over	5.5	63 (85%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 4.5Underdog 4.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.