NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Kenny Gainwell RB

TB vs ATL · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

1.5 Receptions

Hit rate · Last 20 85%17/20 Odds imply —

Season avg: 1.7
Graph avg: 3.5
Graph median: 3.00–8
Over the close: 50%3/6

2026 per game

Carries4.7▼-2.0

Rush Yds21.3▼-9.7

Rush TD0.0▼-0.3

Targets2.4▼-2.6

Rec1.7▼-2.6

Rec Yds8.7▼-19.7

1.5

2025

2

Oct 16
2

Oct 26
4

Nov 02
2

Nov 09
7

Nov 16
6

Nov 23
2

Nov 30
6

Dec 07
7

Dec 15
5

Dec 21
3

Dec 28
8

Jan 04
4

Jan 12
2026

1

Sep 13
3

Sep 20
2

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
3

Oct 08
1

Oct 18
0

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 63% 17/27 · avg 2.6
Away 47% 9/19 · avg 1.9
vs ATL 0% 0/1 · avg 0.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 95% 19/20
O 1.5 Today 85% 17/20
O 2.5 55% 11/20
O 3.5 40% 8/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs ATL

What ATL allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds88.8#20
Yds/Carry4.4#13
Rush TD0.7#13
Targets7.1#3
Rec Yds35.3#8

RBs vs ATL · 2026

Each main RB who faced ATL this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.3

Avg diff %+10%

Beat their average71% (5/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Christian McCaffrey	6	4.7	+29%
Oct 18	D'Andre Swift	4	3.0	+33%
Oct 11	Justice Hill	2	1.8	+9%
Oct 05	Alvin Kamara	5	3.4	+47%
Sep 24	MarShawn Lloyd	2	1.7	+20%
Sep 20	Chuba Hubbard	2	2.6	-23%
Sep 13	Rico Dowdle	2	3.7	-45%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TB offense

TB offense: Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.9 yds	4%13.4 yds	6%8.5 yds
Short	34%5.1 yds	14%7.2 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ATL defense

ATL defense: Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.6 yds#27	3%19.0 yds#4	8%9.4 yds#22
Short	32%6.4 yds#8	14%6.6 yds#22	33%5.3 yds#19

Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	2%45.0 yds
Short	49%4.8 yds	16%7.4 yds	33%3.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TB targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Emeka Egbuka WR	6	8.2	49	25.6%
2	Chris Godwin Jr. WR	7	4.9	34	19.9%
3	Cade Otton TE	7	4.3	30	15.3%
4	Ted Hurst III WR	6	3.8	23	12.7%
5	Bucky Irving RB	7	3.3	23	12.4%
6	Tez Johnson WR	7	2.1	15	8.4%
7	Kenny Gainwell RB	7	2.4	17	8.0%
8	Payne Durham TE	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Jalen McMillan WR	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Kameron Johnson WR	7	0.3	2	1.1%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 1.5	Close
2026-10-25	7	@ CAR	0	Under	2.5
2026-10-18	6	vs PIT	1	Under	2.5
2026-10-08	5	@ DAL	3	Over	1.5
2026-10-04	4	vs GB	2	Over	2.5
2026-09-27	3	vs MIN	2	Over	1.5
2026-09-20	2	vs CLE	3	Over	1.5
2026-09-13	1	@ CIN	1	Under	—
2026-01-12	19 (P)	vs HOU	4	Over	—
2026-01-04	18	vs BAL	8	Over	—
2025-12-28	17	@ CLE	3	Over	—
2025-12-21	16	@ DET	5	Over	—
2025-12-15	15	vs MIA	7	Over	—
2025-12-07	14	@ BAL	6	Over	—
2025-11-30	13	vs BUF	2	Over	—
2025-11-23	12	@ CHI	6	Over	—
2025-11-16	11	vs CIN	7	Over	—
2025-11-09	10	@ LAC	2	Over	—
2025-11-02	9	vs IND	4	Over	—
2025-10-26	8	vs GB	2	Over	—
2025-10-16	7	@ CIN	2	Over	—

Pick’em lines: Underdog 1.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: Underdog, updated 8m ago.