NFL Prop Research

JF

Jake Ferguson TE

DAL vs ARI · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

2.5 Receptions O +147U -189

BookCaesars · 2.5Fanatics · 2.5ESPN BET · 2.5DraftKings · 2.5BetMGM · 1.5FanDuel · 1.5Bally Bet · 1.5

Hit rate · Last 20 65%13/20 Odds imply 38.2% Over

Season avg

2.4

Graph avg

3.2

Graph median

3.00–7

Over the close

39%7/18

2026 per game

Targets3.6▼-2.4

Rec2.4▼-2.4

Rec Yds16.4▼-18.9

Rec TD0.4-0.0

Snaps44.7▼-1.5

Snap %67.0%▲+0.3

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

• Home 83% 15/18 · avg 4.3
• Away 65% 13/20 · avg 4.0
• vs ARI 100% 1/1 · avg 5.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

• O 0.5 90% 18/20
• O 1.5 80% 16/20
• O 2.5 Today 65% 13/20
• O 3.5 40% 8/20
• O 4.5 30% 6/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

• Rec Yds69.1#5
• Receptions6.2#7
• Targets8.1#9
• Yds/Target8.5#4
• Rec TD0.9#3

TEs vs ARI · 2026

Each main TE who faced ARI this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.5

Avg diff %-23%

Beat their average43% (3/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	DEN Evan Engram	1	2.0	-50%
Oct 18	LA Tyler Higbee	4	4.4	-9%
Oct 11	DET Sam LaPorta	5	4.6	+9%
Oct 04	NYG Isaiah Likely	7	5.7	+24%
Sep 27	SF George Kittle	6	4.7	+29%
Sep 20	SEA AJ Barner	1	3.0	-67%
Sep 13	LAC Charlie Kolar	0	3.0	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DAL offense

DAL offense: Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.6 yds	4%23.2 yds	6%10.5 yds
Short	32%6.6 yds	14%5.1 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.4 yds#17	3%13.8 yds#18	11%11.2 yds#13
Short	30%6.9 yds#3	18%7.8 yds#13	30%6.9 yds#3

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	3%19.0 yds
Short	21%3.6 yds	24%4.2 yds	52%3.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Target share · DAL 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of DAL targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	CeeDee Lamb WR	7	11.6	81	30.8%
2	George Pickens WR	7	8.3	58	22.1%
3	Ryan Flournoy WR	7	5.7	40	15.1%
4	Jake Ferguson TE	7	3.6	25	9.3%
5	Javonte Williams RB	7	3.1	22	8.5%
6	Brevyn Spann-Ford TE	7	1.9	13	4.7%
7	Jonathan Mingo WR	5	1.6	8	4.3%
8	KaVontae Turpin WR	6	1.2	7	3.0%
9	Luke Schoonmaker TE	3	1.0	3	2.7%
10	Tyler Goodson RB	4	1.2	5	2.6%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 2.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-26	7	@ PHI	0	Under	2.5	38 (56%)
2026-10-18	6	@ GB	2	Under	3.5	42 (54%)
2026-10-08	5	vs TB	3	Over	3.5	50 (83%)
2026-10-04	4	@ HOU	3	Over	3.5	55 (71%)
2026-09-27	3	vs BAL	3	Over	3.5	51 (69%)
2026-09-20	2	vs WAS	4	Over	3.5	33 (60%)
2026-09-13	1	@ NYG	2	Under	3.5	44 (76%)
2026-01-04	18	@ NYG	1	Under	—	33 (60%)
2025-12-25	17	@ WAS	1	Under	4.5	27 (29%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LAC	3	Over	2.5	40 (69%)
2025-12-14	15	vs MIN	2	Under	2.5	50 (71%)
2025-12-04	14	@ DET	5	Over	4.5	66 (80%)
2025-11-27	13	vs KC	5	Over	4.5	51 (71%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PHI	5	Over	4.5	51 (69%)
2025-11-17	11	@ LV	4	Over	4.5	42 (63%)
2025-11-03	9	vs ARI	5	Over	—	60 (90%)
2025-10-26	8	@ DEN	0	Under	1.5	44 (59%)
2025-10-19	7	vs WAS	7	Over	4.5	44 (66%)
2025-10-12	6	@ CAR	3	Over	3.5	37 (67%)
2025-10-05	5	@ NYJ	7	Over	5.5	33 (55%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 1.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.