NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Javonte Williams RB

DAL vs ARI · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

1.5 Receptions O -184U +143

Hit rate · All 76%31/41 Odds imply 61.2% Over

Season avg: 2.7
Graph avg: 2.6
Graph median: 2.00–7
Over the close: 25%4/16

2026 per game

Carries15.7-0.0

Rush Yds67.4▼-7.6

Rush TD1.1▲+0.5

Targets3.1-0.0

Rec2.7▲+0.5

Rec Yds14.7▲+6.2

Snaps50.1▲+2.1

Snap %74.9%▲+5.9

1.5

2024

5

Sep 15
4

Sep 22
2

Sep 29
5

Oct 06
3

Oct 13
3

Oct 17
4

Oct 27
2

Nov 03
2

Nov 10
4

Nov 17
2

Nov 24
1

Dec 02
2

Dec 15
7

Dec 19
2

Dec 28
3

Jan 05
2

Jan 12
2025

2

Sep 04
6

Sep 14
5

Sep 21
3

Sep 28
1

Oct 05
5

Oct 12
1

Oct 19
1

Oct 26
1

Nov 03
1

Nov 17
2

Nov 23
3

Nov 27
2

Dec 04
0

Dec 14
2

Dec 21
0

Dec 25
2026

5

Sep 13
3

Sep 20
2

Sep 27
5

Oct 04
2

Oct 08
2

Oct 18
0

Oct 26
?

Nov 01

Showing the latest 40 of 41 games.

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 79% 15/19 · avg 2.7
Away 73% 16/22 · avg 2.5
vs ARI 0% 0/1 · avg 1.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 93% 38/41
O 1.5 Today 76% 31/41
O 2.5 42% 17/41
O 3.5 27% 11/41

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds111.5#4
Yds/Carry4.4#10
Rush TD0.8#9
Targets5.6#14
Rec Yds39.4#6

RBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main RB who faced ARI this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.4

Avg diff %-45%

Beat their average0% (0/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	RJ Harvey	2	4.6	-57%
Oct 18	Kyren Williams	3	4.8	-38%
Oct 11	Jahmyr Gibbs	5	5.4	-7%
Oct 04	Cam Skattebo	1	2.0	-50%
Sep 27	Christian McCaffrey	4	5.0	-20%
Sep 20	George Holani	1	1.8	-45%
Sep 13	Keaton Mitchell	0	2.4	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DAL offense

DAL offense: Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.6 yds	4%23.2 yds	6%10.5 yds
Short	32%6.6 yds	14%5.1 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.4 yds#17	3%13.8 yds#18	11%11.2 yds#13
Short	30%6.9 yds#3	18%7.8 yds#13	30%6.9 yds#3

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	35%4.9 yds	18%3.0 yds	47%3.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DAL targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	CeeDee Lamb WR	7	11.6	81	30.8%
2	George Pickens WR	7	8.3	58	22.1%
3	Ryan Flournoy WR	7	5.7	40	15.1%
4	Jake Ferguson TE	7	3.6	25	9.3%
5	Javonte Williams RB	7	3.1	22	8.5%
6	Brevyn Spann-Ford TE	7	1.9	13	4.7%
7	Jonathan Mingo WR	5	1.6	8	4.3%
8	KaVontae Turpin WR	6	1.2	7	3.0%
9	Luke Schoonmaker TE	3	1.0	3	2.7%
10	Tyler Goodson RB	4	1.2	5	2.6%

Game log · 41 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-26	7	@ PHI	0	Under	2.5	44 (65%)
2026-10-18	6	@ GB	2	Over	2.5	57 (73%)
2026-10-08	5	vs TB	2	Over	2.5	51 (85%)
2026-10-04	4	@ HOU	5	Over	2.5	58 (74%)
2026-09-27	3	vs BAL	2	Over	2.5	56 (76%)
2026-09-20	2	vs WAS	3	Over	2.5	44 (80%)
2026-09-13	1	@ NYG	5	Over	2.5	41 (71%)
2025-12-25	17	@ WAS	0	Under	1.5	25 (27%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LAC	2	Over	2.5	33 (57%)
2025-12-14	15	vs MIN	0	Under	1.5	20 (29%)
2025-12-04	14	@ DET	2	Over	2.5	65 (79%)
2025-11-27	13	vs KC	3	Over	2.5	56 (78%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PHI	2	Over	2.5	58 (78%)
2025-11-17	11	@ LV	1	Under	1.5	52 (78%)
2025-11-03	9	vs ARI	1	Under	—	58 (87%)
2025-10-26	8	@ DEN	1	Under	1.5	53 (72%)
2025-10-19	7	vs WAS	1	Under	2.5	46 (69%)
2025-10-12	6	@ CAR	5	Over	—	47 (85%)
2025-10-05	5	@ NYJ	1	Under	—	46 (77%)
2025-09-28	4	vs GB	3	Over	—	55 (80%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CHI	5	Over	—	44 (59%)
2025-09-14	2	vs NYG	6	Over	—	64 (72%)
2025-09-04	1	@ PHI	2	Over	—	47 (77%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	@ BUF	2	Over	—	31 (74%)
2025-01-05	18	vs KC	3	Over	—	23 (31%)
2024-12-28	17	@ CIN	2	Over	—	22 (37%)
2024-12-19	16	@ LAC	7	Over	—	33 (52%)
2024-12-15	15	vs IND	2	Over	—	34 (54%)
2024-12-02	13	vs CLE	1	Under	—	30 (45%)
2024-11-24	12	@ LV	2	Over	—	38 (56%)
2024-11-17	11	vs ATL	4	Over	—	32 (52%)
2024-11-10	10	@ KC	2	Over	—	17 (29%)
2024-11-03	9	@ BAL	2	Over	—	39 (54%)
2024-10-27	8	vs CAR	4	Over	—	42 (58%)
2024-10-17	7	@ NO	3	Over	—	41 (63%)
2024-10-13	6	vs LAC	3	Over	—	37 (67%)
2024-10-06	5	vs LV	5	Over	—	40 (63%)
2024-09-29	4	@ NYJ	2	Over	—	35 (57%)
2024-09-22	3	@ TB	4	Over	—	35 (51%)
2024-09-15	2	vs PIT	5	Over	—	40 (66%)
2024-09-08	1	@ SEA	1	Under	—	36 (52%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 1.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.