NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Kenneth Walker III RB

KC vs DEN · Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET

3.5 Receptions O +140U -188

Hit rate · All 27%10/37 Odds imply 39.0% Over

Season avg: 3.0
Graph avg: 2.8
Graph median: 2.00–8
Over the close: 44%10/23

2026 per game

Carries20.0▲+5.7

Rush Yds116.8▲+49.8

Rush TD1.0▲+0.6

Targets4.5▲+2.1

Rec3.0▲+1.0

Rec Yds19.3+0.0

Snaps46.7▲+15.7

Snap %74.3%▲+25.0

3.5

2024

2

Sep 08
4

Sep 30
7

Oct 06
8

Oct 10
2

Oct 20
4

Oct 27
3

Nov 03
2

Nov 17
4

Nov 24
2

Dec 01
8

Dec 22
2025

3

Sep 07
1

Sep 14
1

Sep 21
1

Sep 25
1

Oct 05
1

Oct 12
0

Oct 20
2

Nov 02
1

Nov 09
3

Nov 16
3

Nov 23
3

Nov 30
1

Dec 07
1

Dec 14
3

Dec 18
2

Dec 28
4

Jan 03
3

Jan 17
4

Jan 25
2

Feb 08
2026

3

Sep 14
6

Sep 20
2

Sep 27
1

Oct 04
2

Oct 18
4

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 35% 7/20 · avg 3.4
Away 18% 3/17 · avg 2.2
vs DEN 0% 0/2 · avg 2.5

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 73% 27/37
O 2.5 49% 18/37
O 3.5 Today 27% 10/37
O 4.5 11% 4/37
O 5.5 11% 4/37

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs DEN

What DEN allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds95.1#16
Yds/Carry4.2#16
Rush TD0.5#27
Targets5.9#11
Rec Yds30.7#20

RBs vs DEN · 2026

Each main RB who faced DEN this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.1

Avg diff %-1%

Beat their average43% (3/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Tyler Allgeier	3	2.2	+38%
Oct 15	George Holani	0	2.0	-100%
Oct 11	Keaton Mitchell	3	1.8	+67%
Oct 04	Christian McCaffrey	3	5.2	-42%
Sep 27	Kyren Williams	6	4.3	+38%
Sep 20	Bhayshul Tuten	2	2.2	-9%
Sep 14	Kenneth Walker III	3	3.0	+0%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.2 yds	5%11.2 yds	6%11.5 yds
Short	28%5.5 yds	15%6.5 yds	41%5.7 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DEN defense

DEN defense: Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.2 yds#31	3%11.3 yds#27	7%6.7 yds#28
Short	27%6.7 yds#6	16%7.8 yds#11	39%4.7 yds#31

Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	45%7.7 yds	14%3.0 yds	40%5.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	6	5.8	35	19.6%
3	Travis Kelce TE	6	5.8	35	18.6%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	6	4.5	27	14.3%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	6	2.3	14	8.4%
7	Andrew Armstrong WR	2	2.0	4	6.6%
8	Jalen Royals WR	6	1.8	11	6.1%
9	Emmett Johnson RB	6	1.8	11	6.0%
10	Cyrus Allen WR	4	1.5	6	5.2%

Game log · 37 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 3.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ SEA	4	Over	3.5	39 (74%)
2026-10-18	6	vs LAC	2	Under	3.5	45 (74%)
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	1	Under	3.5	45 (75%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	2	Under	3.5	38 (73%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	6	Over	3.5	66 (82%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	3	Under	3.5	47 (68%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	@ NE	2	Under	2.5	47 (65%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs LA	4	Over	2.5	42 (63%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs SF	3	Under	1.5	33 (62%)
2026-01-03	18	@ SF	4	Over	1.5	29 (42%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CAR	2	Under	2.5	31 (47%)
2025-12-18	16	vs LA	3	Under	1.5	30 (44%)
2025-12-14	15	vs IND	1	Under	2.5	25 (42%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ATL	1	Under	2.5	32 (52%)
2025-11-30	13	vs MIN	3	Under	1.5	37 (55%)
2025-11-23	12	@ TEN	3	Under	1.5	30 (62%)
2025-11-16	11	@ LA	3	Under	1.5	43 (51%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ARI	1	Under	1.5	27 (44%)
2025-11-02	9	@ WAS	2	Under	—	29 (57%)
2025-10-20	7	vs HOU	0	Under	—	32 (44%)
2025-10-12	6	@ JAX	1	Under	1.5	19 (35%)
2025-10-05	5	vs TB	1	Under	2.5	27 (44%)
2025-09-25	4	@ ARI	1	Under	1.5	33 (50%)
2025-09-21	3	vs NO	1	Under	—	30 (53%)
2025-09-14	2	@ PIT	1	Under	1.5	23 (35%)
2025-09-07	1	vs SF	3	Under	2.5	21 (40%)
2024-12-22	16	vs MIN	8	Over	—	38 (59%)
2024-12-01	13	@ NYJ	2	Under	—	39 (61%)
2024-11-24	12	vs ARI	4	Over	—	41 (64%)
2024-11-17	11	@ SF	2	Under	—	44 (73%)
2024-11-03	9	vs LA	3	Under	—	61 (76%)
2024-10-27	8	vs BUF	4	Over	—	28 (55%)
2024-10-20	7	@ ATL	2	Under	—	28 (47%)
2024-10-10	6	vs SF	8	Over	—	54 (69%)
2024-10-06	5	vs NYG	7	Over	—	39 (67%)
2024-09-30	4	@ DET	4	Over	—	53 (59%)
2024-09-08	1	vs DEN	2	Under	—	44 (66%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: FanDuel, updated 9m ago.