NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Brevyn Spann-Ford TE

DAL vs ARI · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

1.5 Receptions O -159U +125

Hit rate · All 21%7/34 Odds imply 58.0% Over

Season avg: 1.3
Graph avg: 0.8
Graph median: 0.00–4
Over the close: 33%2/6

2026 per game

Targets1.9▲+1.0

Rec1.3▲+0.7

Rec Yds11.3▲+5.7

Rec TD0.0▼-0.1

Snaps26.4▲+8.6

Snap %38.6%▲+13.5

1.5

2024

0

Sep 15
0

Sep 22
0

Sep 26
2

Oct 06
0

Oct 27
4

Nov 18
2

Nov 24
0

Nov 28
0

Dec 09
1

Dec 15
0

Dec 22
2025

0

Sep 04
1

Sep 14
0

Sep 21
0

Oct 05
1

Oct 12
0

Oct 19
1

Oct 26
0

Nov 03
1

Nov 17
1

Nov 23
0

Nov 27
1

Dec 04
0

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
1

Dec 25
2

Jan 04
2026

2

Sep 13
0

Sep 20
1

Sep 27
0

Oct 04
0

Oct 08
4

Oct 18
2

Oct 26
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 6% 1/16 · avg 0.4
Away 33% 6/18 · avg 1.1
vs ARI 0% 0/1 · avg 0.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 47% 16/34
O 1.5 Today 21% 7/34
O 2.5 6% 2/34
O 3.5 6% 2/34

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds69.1#5
Receptions6.2#7
Targets8.1#9
Yds/Target8.5#4
Rec TD0.9#3

TEs vs ARI · 2026

Each main TE who faced ARI this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.5

Avg diff %-23%

Beat their average43% (3/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Evan Engram	1	2.0	-50%
Oct 18	Tyler Higbee	4	4.4	-9%
Oct 11	Sam LaPorta	5	4.6	+9%
Oct 04	Isaiah Likely	7	5.7	+24%
Sep 27	George Kittle	6	4.7	+29%
Sep 20	AJ Barner	1	3.0	-67%
Sep 13	Charlie Kolar	0	3.0	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DAL offense

DAL offense: Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.6 yds	4%23.2 yds	6%10.5 yds
Short	32%6.6 yds	14%5.1 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.4 yds#17	3%13.8 yds#18	11%11.2 yds#13
Short	30%6.9 yds#3	18%7.8 yds#13	30%6.9 yds#3

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	10%27.0 yds	0%
Short	15%2.3 yds	30%3.3 yds	45%7.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DAL targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	CeeDee Lamb WR	7	11.6	81	30.8%
2	George Pickens WR	7	8.3	58	22.1%
3	Ryan Flournoy WR	7	5.7	40	15.1%
4	Jake Ferguson TE	7	3.6	25	9.3%
5	Javonte Williams RB	7	3.1	22	8.5%
6	Brevyn Spann-Ford TE	7	1.9	13	4.7%
7	Jonathan Mingo WR	5	1.6	8	4.3%
8	KaVontae Turpin WR	6	1.2	7	3.0%
9	Luke Schoonmaker TE	3	1.0	3	2.7%
10	Tyler Goodson RB	4	1.2	5	2.6%

Game log · 34 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-26	7	@ PHI	2	Over	1.5	36 (53%)
2026-10-18	6	@ GB	4	Over	0.5	36 (46%)
2026-10-08	5	vs TB	0	Under	0.5	20 (33%)
2026-10-04	4	@ HOU	0	Under	0.5	31 (40%)
2026-09-27	3	vs BAL	1	Under	—	28 (38%)
2026-09-20	2	vs WAS	0	Under	1.5	21 (38%)
2026-09-13	1	@ NYG	2	Over	3.5	13 (22%)
2026-01-04	18	@ NYG	2	Over	—	17 (31%)
2025-12-25	17	@ WAS	1	Under	—	48 (52%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LAC	0	Under	—	11 (19%)
2025-12-14	15	vs MIN	0	Under	—	21 (30%)
2025-12-04	14	@ DET	1	Under	—	13 (16%)
2025-11-27	13	vs KC	0	Under	—	19 (26%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PHI	1	Under	—	19 (26%)
2025-11-17	11	@ LV	1	Under	—	24 (36%)
2025-11-03	9	vs ARI	0	Under	—	9 (13%)
2025-10-26	8	@ DEN	1	Under	—	23 (31%)
2025-10-19	7	vs WAS	0	Under	—	15 (22%)
2025-10-12	6	@ CAR	1	Under	—	10 (18%)
2025-10-05	5	@ NYJ	0	Under	—	20 (33%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CHI	0	Under	—	15 (20%)
2025-09-14	2	vs NYG	1	Under	—	11 (12%)
2025-09-04	1	@ PHI	0	Under	—	10 (16%)
2024-12-22	16	vs TB	0	Under	—	13 (22%)
2024-12-15	15	@ CAR	1	Under	—	22 (30%)
2024-12-09	14	vs CIN	0	Under	—	11 (18%)
2024-11-28	13	vs NYG	0	Under	—	32 (42%)
2024-11-24	12	@ WAS	2	Over	—	33 (50%)
2024-11-18	11	vs HOU	4	Over	—	41 (49%)
2024-10-27	8	@ SF	0	Under	—	19 (31%)
2024-10-06	5	@ PIT	2	Over	—	15 (20%)
2024-09-26	4	@ NYG	0	Under	—	5 (9%)
2024-09-22	3	vs BAL	0	Under	—	9 (11%)
2024-09-15	2	vs NO	0	Under	—	22 (31%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 1.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.