NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Xavier Worthy WR

KC vs DEN · Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET

34.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · This season 33%2/6 Odds imply —

Season avg: 36.2
Graph avg: 36.2
Graph median: 22.511–73
Over the close: 33%2/6

2026 per game

Targets5.8▲+0.6

Rec4.0▲+1.0

Rec Yds36.2▼-1.8

Rec TD0.2▲+0.1

Snaps51.2▲+5.1

Snap %82.0%▲+11.4

34.5

2026

18

Sep 14
25

Sep 20
20

Sep 27
70

Oct 04
73

Oct 18
11

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 34.5

Home 62% 13/21 · avg 40.3
Away 61% 11/18 · avg 46.0
vs DEN 0% 0/4 · avg 13.5

Alt lines this season · how often Over cleared

O 24.5 50% 3/6
O 29.5 33% 2/6
O 34.5 Today 33% 2/6
O 39.5 33% 2/6
O 44.5 33% 2/6

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs DEN

What DEN allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds123.1#27
Receptions10.5#22
Targets19.8#8
Yds/Target6.2#32
Rec TD0.5#29

WRs vs DEN · 2026

Each main WR who faced DEN this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.7

Avg diff %+44%

Beat their average50% (7/14)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Michael Wilson	55	53.3	+3%
Oct 25	Kendrick Bourne	9	45.0	-80%
Oct 15	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	134	122.2	+10%
Oct 15	Cooper Kupp	50	24.8	+101%
Oct 11	Tre Harris	16	52.2	-69%
Oct 11	Derius Davis	0	1.2	-100%
Oct 04	Mike Evans	76	68.8	+10%
Oct 04	Deebo Samuel Sr.	26	45.0	-42%
Sep 27	Davante Adams	137	68.6	+100%
Sep 27	Konata Mumpfield	93	9.8	+849%
Sep 20	Parker Washington	98	63.6	+54%
Sep 20	Jakobi Meyers	28	51.4	-46%
Sep 14	Rashee Rice	19	85.5	-78%
Sep 14	Tyquan Thornton	0	73.0	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.2 yds	5%11.2 yds	6%11.5 yds
Short	28%5.5 yds	15%6.5 yds	41%5.7 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DEN defense

DEN defense: Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.2 yds#31	3%11.3 yds#27	7%6.7 yds#28
Short	27%6.7 yds#6	16%7.8 yds#11	39%4.7 yds#31

Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%5.8 yds	4%20.5 yds	16%4.9 yds
Short	22%6.7 yds	6%11.7 yds	43%6.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	6	5.8	35	19.6%
3	Travis Kelce TE	6	5.8	35	18.6%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	6	4.5	27	14.3%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	6	2.3	14	8.4%
7	Andrew Armstrong WR	2	2.0	4	6.6%
8	Jalen Royals WR	6	1.8	11	6.1%
9	Emmett Johnson RB	6	1.8	11	6.0%
10	Cyrus Allen WR	4	1.5	6	5.2%

Game log · 6 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 34.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ SEA	11	Under	49.5	46 (87%)
2026-10-18	6	vs LAC	73	Over	48.5	51 (84%)
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	70	Over	33.5	45 (75%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	20	Under	38.5	43 (83%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	25	Under	39.5	69 (86%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	18	Under	36.5	53 (77%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 34.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 10m ago.