NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Xavier Worthy WR

KC vs DEN · Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET

34.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · Last 20 55%11/20 Odds imply —

Season avg: 36.2
Graph avg: 37.5
Graph median: 35.00–83
Over the close: 35%7/20

2026 per game

Targets5.8▲+0.6

Rec4.0▲+1.0

Rec Yds36.2▼-1.8

Rec TD0.2▲+0.1

Snaps51.2▲+5.1

Snap %82.0%▲+11.4

34.5

2025

0

Sep 05
83

Sep 28
42

Oct 06
20

Oct 12
35

Oct 19
53

Oct 27
23

Nov 02
25

Nov 16
59

Nov 23
61

Nov 27
55

Dec 07
35

Dec 14
41

Dec 21
0

Dec 25
2026

18

Sep 14
25

Sep 20
20

Sep 27
70

Oct 04
73

Oct 18
11

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 34.5

Home 62% 13/21 · avg 40.3
Away 61% 11/18 · avg 46.0
vs DEN 0% 0/4 · avg 13.5

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 24.5 65% 13/20
O 29.5 55% 11/20
O 34.5 Today 55% 11/20
O 39.5 45% 9/20
O 44.5 35% 7/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs DEN

What DEN allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds123.1#27
Receptions10.5#22
Targets19.8#8
Yds/Target6.2#32
Rec TD0.5#29

WRs vs DEN · 2026

Each main WR who faced DEN this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.7

Avg diff %+44%

Beat their average50% (7/14)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Michael Wilson	55	53.3	+3%
Oct 25	Kendrick Bourne	9	45.0	-80%
Oct 15	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	134	122.2	+10%
Oct 15	Cooper Kupp	50	24.8	+101%
Oct 11	Tre Harris	16	52.2	-69%
Oct 11	Derius Davis	0	1.2	-100%
Oct 04	Mike Evans	76	68.8	+10%
Oct 04	Deebo Samuel Sr.	26	45.0	-42%
Sep 27	Davante Adams	137	68.6	+100%
Sep 27	Konata Mumpfield	93	9.8	+849%
Sep 20	Parker Washington	98	63.6	+54%
Sep 20	Jakobi Meyers	28	51.4	-46%
Sep 14	Rashee Rice	19	85.5	-78%
Sep 14	Tyquan Thornton	0	73.0	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.2 yds	5%11.2 yds	6%11.5 yds
Short	28%5.5 yds	15%6.5 yds	41%5.7 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DEN defense

DEN defense: Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.2 yds#31	3%11.3 yds#27	7%6.7 yds#28
Short	27%6.7 yds#6	16%7.8 yds#11	39%4.7 yds#31

Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%5.8 yds	4%20.5 yds	16%4.9 yds
Short	22%6.7 yds	6%11.7 yds	43%6.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	6	5.8	35	19.6%
3	Travis Kelce TE	6	5.8	35	18.6%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	6	4.5	27	14.3%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	6	2.3	14	8.4%
7	Andrew Armstrong WR	2	2.0	4	6.6%
8	Jalen Royals WR	6	1.8	11	6.1%
9	Emmett Johnson RB	6	1.8	11	6.0%
10	Cyrus Allen WR	4	1.5	6	5.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 34.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ SEA	11	Under	49.5	46 (87%)
2026-10-18	6	vs LAC	73	Over	48.5	51 (84%)
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	70	Over	33.5	45 (75%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	20	Under	38.5	43 (83%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	25	Under	39.5	69 (86%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	18	Under	36.5	53 (77%)
2025-12-25	17	vs DEN	0	Under	0.5	34 (79%)
2025-12-21	16	@ TEN	41	Over	40.5	38 (84%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LAC	35	Over	36.5	41 (67%)
2025-12-07	14	vs HOU	55	Over	55.5	49 (77%)
2025-11-27	13	@ DAL	61	Over	20.5	58 (88%)
2025-11-23	12	vs IND	59	Over	30.5	74 (77%)
2025-11-16	11	@ DEN	25	Under	25.5	53 (76%)
2025-11-02	9	@ BUF	23	Under	10.5	50 (83%)
2025-10-27	8	vs WAS	53	Over	45.5	58 (84%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LV	35	Over	35.5	48 (59%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DET	20	Under	20.5	47 (73%)
2025-10-06	5	@ JAX	42	Over	45.5	49 (77%)
2025-09-28	4	vs BAL	83	Over	83.5	43 (59%)
2025-09-05	1	@ LAC	0	Under	63.5	3 (5%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 34.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 8m ago.