NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Travis Kelce TE

KC vs DEN · Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET

46.5 Rec Yds O -114U -110

Hit rate · All 55%23/42 Odds imply 50.4% Over

Season avg: 57.2
Graph avg: 52.2
Graph median: 50.55–117
Over the close: 35%8/23

2026 per game

Targets5.8▼-0.5

Rec4.0▼-0.5

Rec Yds57.2▲+7.1

Rec TD0.3+0.0

Snaps48.7▼-4.4

Snap %77.8%▼-4.0

46.5

2024

30

Sep 22
89

Sep 29
70

Oct 07
17

Oct 20
90

Oct 27
100

Nov 04
64

Nov 10
8

Nov 17
62

Nov 24
68

Nov 29
45

Dec 08
27

Dec 15
30

Dec 21
84

Dec 25
117

Jan 18
19

Jan 26
39

Feb 09
2025

47

Sep 05
61

Sep 14
26

Sep 21
48

Sep 28
61

Oct 06
78

Oct 12
54

Oct 19
99

Oct 27
66

Nov 02
91

Nov 16
43

Nov 23
45

Nov 27
8

Dec 07
70

Dec 14
6

Dec 21
36

Dec 25
12

Jan 04
2026

71

Sep 14
101

Sep 20
59

Sep 27
15

Oct 04
53

Oct 18
44

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Showing the latest 40 of 42 games.

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 46.5

Home 64% 14/22 · avg 57.9
Away 45% 9/20 · avg 45.9
vs DEN 75% 3/4 · avg 65.5

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 36.5 67% 28/42
O 41.5 64% 27/42
O 46.5 Today 55% 23/42
O 51.5 50% 21/42
O 56.5 45% 19/42

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs DEN

What DEN allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds61.9#10
Receptions5.8#11
Targets8.2#7
Yds/Target7.5#12
Rec TD0.5#14

TEs vs DEN · 2026

Each main TE who faced DEN this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+4.8

Avg diff %-3%

Beat their average57% (4/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Trey McBride	111	60.2	+84%
Oct 15	AJ Barner	16	27.3	-41%
Oct 11	Oronde Gadsden II	0	20.6	-100%
Oct 04	George Kittle	70	59.2	+18%
Sep 27	Tyler Higbee	62	39.6	+57%
Sep 20	Brenton Strange	17	52.4	-68%
Sep 14	Travis Kelce	71	54.4	+31%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.2 yds	5%11.2 yds	6%11.5 yds
Short	28%5.5 yds	15%6.5 yds	41%5.7 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DEN defense

DEN defense: Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.2 yds#31	3%11.3 yds#27	7%6.7 yds#28
Short	27%6.7 yds#6	16%7.8 yds#11	39%4.7 yds#31

Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%0.0 yds	2%48.0 yds	2%0.0 yds
Short	25%7.7 yds	23%7.6 yds	42%7.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	6	5.8	35	19.6%
3	Travis Kelce TE	6	5.8	35	18.6%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	6	4.5	27	14.3%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	6	2.3	14	8.4%
7	Andrew Armstrong WR	2	2.0	4	6.6%
8	Jalen Royals WR	6	1.8	11	6.1%
9	Emmett Johnson RB	6	1.8	11	6.0%
10	Cyrus Allen WR	4	1.5	6	5.2%

Game log · 42 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 46.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ SEA	44	Under	45.5	44 (83%)
2026-10-18	6	vs LAC	53	Over	50.5	40 (66%)
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	15	Under	47.5	50 (83%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	59	Over	52.5	41 (79%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	101	Over	41.5	68 (85%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	71	Over	42.5	49 (71%)
2026-01-04	18	@ LV	12	Under	24.5	51 (80%)
2025-12-25	17	vs DEN	36	Under	13.5	42 (98%)
2025-12-21	16	@ TEN	6	Under	51.5	35 (78%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LAC	70	Over	45.5	60 (98%)
2025-12-07	14	vs HOU	8	Under	16.5	58 (91%)
2025-11-27	13	@ DAL	45	Under	45.5	60 (91%)
2025-11-23	12	vs IND	43	Under	45.5	84 (88%)
2025-11-16	11	@ DEN	91	Over	91.5	55 (79%)
2025-11-02	9	@ BUF	66	Over	66.5	55 (92%)
2025-10-27	8	vs WAS	99	Over	100.5	58 (84%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LV	54	Over	55.5	50 (62%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DET	78	Over	70.5	45 (70%)
2025-10-06	5	@ JAX	61	Over	45.5	51 (80%)
2025-09-28	4	vs BAL	48	Over	48.5	48 (66%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NYG	26	Under	30.5	53 (74%)
2025-09-14	2	vs PHI	61	Over	61.5	46 (77%)
2025-09-05	1	@ LAC	47	Over	50.5	51 (84%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	@ PHI	39	Under	—	53 (95%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	vs BUF	19	Under	—	61 (92%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	117	Over	—	39 (76%)
2024-12-25	17	@ PIT	84	Over	—	55 (89%)
2024-12-21	16	vs HOU	30	Under	—	65 (88%)
2024-12-15	15	@ CLE	27	Under	—	67 (89%)
2024-12-08	14	vs LAC	45	Under	—	57 (83%)
2024-11-29	13	vs LV	68	Over	—	64 (90%)
2024-11-24	12	@ CAR	62	Over	—	66 (89%)
2024-11-17	11	@ BUF	8	Under	—	44 (80%)
2024-11-10	10	vs DEN	64	Over	—	57 (84%)
2024-11-04	9	vs TB	100	Over	—	71 (84%)
2024-10-27	8	@ LV	90	Over	—	57 (79%)
2024-10-20	7	@ SF	17	Under	—	54 (77%)
2024-10-07	5	vs NO	70	Over	—	65 (77%)
2024-09-29	4	@ LAC	89	Over	—	54 (87%)
2024-09-22	3	@ ATL	30	Under	—	57 (77%)
2024-09-15	2	vs CIN	5	Under	—	59 (91%)
2024-09-05	1	vs BAL	34	Under	—	48 (89%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 47.5Underdog 49.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 11m ago.