NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

D'Andre Swift RB

CHI vs SEA · Mon Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ET

14.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · Last 20 45%9/20 Odds imply —

Season avg: 21.7
Graph avg: 16.9
Graph median: 14.0-2–54
Over the close: 53%10/19

2026 per game

Carries16.6▲+2.4

Rush Yds68.0▲+0.4

Rush TD1.0▲+0.4

Targets3.6▲+0.8

Rec3.1▲+1.1

Rec Yds21.7▲+3.0

Snaps45.7▲+6.3

Snap %61.6%▲+3.9

14.5

2025

14

Oct 19
26

Oct 26
18

Nov 09
0

Nov 16
14

Nov 23
13

Nov 28
19

Dec 07
-2

Dec 14
12

Dec 20
25

Dec 28
8

Jan 04
38

Jan 10
0

Jan 18
2026

10

Sep 13
54

Sep 20
4

Sep 28
16

Oct 04
30

Oct 11
26

Oct 18
12

Oct 22
?

Nov 03

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 14.5

Home 48% 11/23 · avg 22.0
Away 58% 11/19 · avg 19.4
vs SEA 100% 1/1 · avg 28.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 4.5 80% 16/20
O 9.5 75% 15/20
O 14.5 Today 45% 9/20
O 19.5 30% 6/20
O 24.5 30% 6/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs SEA

What SEA allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds69.7#29
Yds/Carry3.5#31
Rush TD0.4#30
Targets6.7#6
Rec Yds39.5#5

RBs vs SEA · 2026

Each main RB who faced SEA this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-4.2

Avg diff %-17%

Beat their average29% (2/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Kenneth Walker III	21	19.0	+11%
Oct 15	RJ Harvey	31	37.2	-17%
Oct 11	Christian McCaffrey	15	39.3	-62%
Oct 04	Omarion Hampton	8	9.6	-17%
Sep 27	Rachaad White	6	19.2	-69%
Sep 20	Tyler Allgeier	9	12.5	-28%
Sep 09	Rhamondre Stevenson	44	26.7	+65%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CHI offense

CHI offense: Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%14.0 yds	5%12.5 yds	9%6.8 yds
Short	22%5.8 yds	22%7.4 yds	36%6.1 yds

Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

SEA defense

SEA defense: Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.8 yds#26	2%16.8 yds#10	10%9.2 yds#23
Short	30%5.5 yds#19	17%5.2 yds#31	32%4.6 yds#32

Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	28%8.9 yds	12%7.8 yds	59%5.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CHI targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Luther Burden III WR	7	6.7	47	21.0%
2	Colston Loveland TE	7	6.0	42	18.9%
3	Rome Odunze WR	7	5.4	38	16.6%
4	Kalif Raymond WR	7	4.4	31	14.4%
5	D'Andre Swift RB	7	3.6	25	11.0%
6	Cole Kmet TE	7	2.0	14	6.5%
7	Roschon Johnson RB	5	2.0	10	5.4%
8	Kyle Monangai RB	4	1.2	5	4.4%
9	Sam Roush TE	5	1.0	5	3.2%
10	Zavion Thomas WR	6	0.8	5	2.4%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 14.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-22	7	vs NE	12	Under	20.5	59 (86%)
2026-10-18	6	@ ATL	26	Over	15.5	45 (58%)
2026-10-11	5	@ GB	30	Over	18.5	40 (58%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NYJ	16	Over	14.5	33 (35%)
2026-09-28	3	vs PHI	4	Under	13.5	50 (69%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIN	54	Over	10.5	50 (68%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CAR	10	Under	13.5	43 (57%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs LA	0	Under	13.5	50 (62%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs GB	38	Over	15.5	39 (50%)
2026-01-04	18	vs DET	8	Under	0.5	32 (58%)
2025-12-28	17	@ SF	25	Over	10.5	39 (59%)
2025-12-20	16	vs GB	12	Under	7.5	35 (55%)
2025-12-14	15	vs CLE	-2	Under	13.5	37 (56%)
2025-12-07	14	@ GB	19	Over	—	40 (57%)
2025-11-28	13	@ PHI	13	Under	15.5	46 (53%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PIT	14	Under	14.5	29 (45%)
2025-11-16	11	@ MIN	0	Under	10.5	43 (57%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NYG	18	Over	20.5	42 (62%)
2025-10-26	8	@ BAL	26	Over	15.5	31 (49%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NO	14	Under	10.5	37 (54%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 14.5PrizePicks 17.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: Underdog, updated 9m ago.