NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Adonai Mitchell WR

NYJ vs LV · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

21.5 Rec Yds O -111U -113

Hit rate · Last 20 45%9/20 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 41.0
Graph avg: 28.8
Graph median: 20.50–102
Over the close: 50%8/16

2026 per game

Targets6.0▲+1.4

Rec3.0▲+0.9

Rec Yds41.0▲+12.7

Rec TD0.0▼-0.1

Snaps44.3▲+13.2

Snap %65.0%▲+14.4

21.5

2024

0

Jan 05
2025

21

Sep 07
20

Sep 14
0

Sep 21
96

Sep 28
0

Oct 05
8

Oct 19
0

Oct 26
7

Nov 02
10

Nov 13
42

Nov 23
102

Nov 30
24

Dec 07
58

Dec 14
43

Dec 21
22

Dec 28
0

Jan 04
2026

60

Sep 13
63

Sep 20
0

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 21.5

Home 41% 7/17 · avg 23.6
Away 53% 10/19 · avg 25.6
vs LV 0% 0/1 · avg 0.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 11.5 55% 11/20
O 16.5 55% 11/20
O 21.5 Today 45% 9/20
O 26.5 35% 7/20
O 31.5 35% 7/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs LV

What LV allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds142.3#15
Receptions9.8#28
Targets16.8#25
Yds/Target8.5#11
Rec TD0.8#16

WRs vs LV · 2026

Each main WR who faced LV this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+9.4

Avg diff %+31%

Beat their average57% (8/14)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Puka Nacua	68	104.2	-35%
Oct 25	Konata Mumpfield	15	25.4	-41%
Oct 18	Khalil Shakir	34	51.2	-34%
Oct 18	Keon Coleman	59	44.8	+32%
Oct 11	Romeo Doubs	16	49.0	-67%
Oct 11	DeMario Douglas	65	31.8	+104%
Oct 04	Tyquan Thornton	111	36.0	+208%
Oct 04	Xavier Worthy	70	29.4	+138%
Sep 27	Chris Olave	107	88.2	+21%
Sep 27	Devaughn Vele	39	51.5	-24%
Sep 20	Tre Harris	53	43.0	+23%
Sep 20	Ladd McConkey	35	41.2	-15%
Sep 13	Malik Washington	53	47.2	+12%
Sep 13	Caleb Douglas	94	44.5	+111%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NYJ offense

NYJ offense: Share of NYJ pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%13.4 yds	2%26.4 yds	5%15.2 yds
Short	33%5.6 yds	11%5.0 yds	43%5.3 yds

Share of NYJ pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.5 yds#7	4%10.8 yds#29	7%10.4 yds#17
Short	32%5.7 yds#16	15%6.6 yds#21	33%5.8 yds#11

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	17%6.5 yds	1%16.0 yds	14%10.3 yds
Short	39%5.7 yds	1%2.0 yds	27%3.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NYJ targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Garrett Wilson WR	7	7.3	51	25.9%
2	Adonai Mitchell WR	3	6.0	18	18.9%
3	Mason Taylor TE	4	4.5	18	16.2%
4	Omar Cooper Jr. WR	3	4.3	13	15.2%
5	Kenyon Sadiq TE	7	3.6	25	13.5%
6	Braelon Allen RB	7	2.9	20	10.5%
7	Breece Hall RB	3	3.3	10	10.3%
8	Tim Patrick WR	2	3.0	6	10.3%
9	Isaiah Williams WR	7	2.0	14	7.6%
10	Jeremy Ruckert TE	4	2.0	8	5.9%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 21.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	vs MIA	0	Under	26.5	26 (44%)
2026-09-20	2	vs GB	63	Over	33.5	61 (82%)
2026-09-13	1	@ TEN	60	Over	34.5	46 (69%)
2026-01-04	18	@ BUF	0	Under	13.5	25 (52%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NE	22	Over	25.5	50 (81%)
2025-12-21	16	@ NO	43	Over	17.5	57 (86%)
2025-12-14	15	@ JAX	58	Over	30.5	54 (79%)
2025-12-07	14	vs MIA	24	Over	10.5	53 (91%)
2025-11-30	13	vs ATL	102	Over	85.5	57 (86%)
2025-11-23	12	@ BAL	42	Over	36.5	50 (85%)
2025-11-13	11	@ NE	10	Under	10.5	28 (49%)
2025-11-02	9	@ PIT	7	Under	—	4 (5%)
2025-10-26	8	vs TEN	0	Under	—	9 (17%)
2025-10-19	7	@ LAC	8	Under	10.5	5 (8%)
2025-10-05	5	vs LV	0	Under	15.5	6 (9%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LA	96	Over	85.5	54 (89%)
2025-09-21	3	@ TEN	0	Under	9.5	24 (42%)
2025-09-14	2	vs DEN	20	Under	—	7 (10%)
2025-09-07	1	vs MIA	21	Under	21.5	15 (21%)
2025-01-05	18	vs JAX	0	Under	—	16 (21%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 21.5Underdog 24.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 16m ago.